Those who'd like to go straight to the previews and predictions can skip the preamble below (or preramble, if you will) and begin reading at 'ESC 2023's state of play'.
Hi, hello
It's been a while. In fact, since last year's Eurovision season. In that post I explained why I no longer update this blog (except for this topic, and even on that it could be my last one as I might well move to video next year).
For those just reading this blog for the first time: this is my English-language blog that I keep a bit separate from the rest (I'm a Dutch-language writer of fiction, non-fiction, poetry, opinion pieces and a bit of a general language creative, but I also hold an M.A. in English language and literature and started learning English when I was 8). I am from and still live in Belgium.
Eurovision, you and me [abridged]
As I was born in 1983, my Eurovision memories go back a pretty long time. The first Eurovision song I can remember hearing is Johnny Logan's 'Hold me now', which he won the contest with in 1987. Because the live-event took place quite late in the evening, the first Eurovision show I was allowed to (partially) watch was the 1992 edition. At the turn of Dana International's 'Diva' winning the ESC in 1998, I actively began enjoying the increasingly campy nature of it. I lost interest a little until Lordi's 'Hard rock hallelujah' firmly entrenched ESC's modern era as a spectacle full of outrageous performance, thickly-applied camp and diversity in 2006. I've never skipped an edition since.
I believe that the past decade has been a new Golden Age for ESC. After maybe overdosing a little too much on the irony and weirdness (I'm looking at the rogue gallery here of Jedward, Dustin the Turkey, a long list of utterly embarrassing British entries, gratuitous appeal to sleaze, and Zdob și Zdub's first entry), the Contest eventually self-corrected. This coincided with the poptimism movement and the advent of music streaming, which tore down the walls of genre pigeonholing, elitism and allowed genuine artistic intent to become part of the ESC mix once more.
ESC 2024's state of play
ESC 2024 has the lowest number of participating countries since 2014, a title it shares with... ESC 2023. We lost Romania but re-gained Luxembourg. 37 nations in the contest is nothing to sneeze at, but we've come from a participant list of 40+ countries. Most non-returnees cite financial reasons. Participating in ESC is not cheap. Those who have been absent for much longer are so also for political reasons, either by being forced out (Russia, Belarus) or eyeing the contest as some form of gay, leftist propaganda (Hungary, Türkiye).
Are the songs any good this year?
Yes. It's probably the strongest edition since 2021. But those notions could all be turned on their head once the actual Semis begin.
Isn't the Eurovision Song Contest 'the Gay Olympics'?
Not really. While the representation of the queer community in both the fandom as well as participating acts is probably outsized compared to the numbers among the general population, I don't think the numbers of queer people involved in the ESC are proportionally higher than any other performing art scene such as theatre, opera or even current-day pop music. What makes it different is probably that it is an outlet/inlet into camp and queer culture for many countries where this is very unusual to take centre stage or be a massive televised spectacle.
Why is Israel allowed to participate in the 2024 Contest?
If the Contest and its parent organisation, the European Broadcasting Union, was as left-wing as some conservatives and reactionaries like to think, there is no way in hell Israel would be allowed to participate. So the EBU and the ESC are sort of milquetoast-y liberal in the loosest sense at best (as verylibitchy deftly analyses in their video I linked earlier). If you don't believe that Israel is currently committing genocide in Gaza, the UN High Court concluded on March 27 that Israel's actions in Gaza are not "inherently" genocidal. That's one of the most tepid forms of denial I've ever heard.
The reason Russia and Belarus were so quickly banned after the start of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine was because the broadcasters who comprise EBU demanded it. As those broadcasters are state-owned and almost no European political leadership outright condemns Israel's actions, neither do the broadcasters. Again, here's verylibitchy:
I'll discuss it some more when we reach Israel's entry.
Why is [COUNTRY] allowed to participate?
The two runners-up in this discussion are Azerbaijan and Australia. The latter is allowed to participate because it pays to do so and the country's been ESC-crazy since forever. The argument against the former goes that they did their own little ethnic cleansing in the Armenian enclave of Artsakh in 2024. While that is true and a plausible argument could be made for Azerbaijan's expulsion from the Contest, it blurs the lines and would create lines of argumentation to ban a whole lot more countries. That would ultimately divide us between ethically purist views and "¯\_(ツ)_/¯ who's to say really?" centrists that only serve to obfuscate Israel's extremely obvious and ongoing war crimes. But feel free to have your own point of view.
Now, on to...
Semi-Final 1
I'll run down the countries in order of appearance. This year, the automatic finalists (the Big Five + last year's winner) also perform in the Semis to acquaint the public with their song and increase their chances of doing well. I find that argument a bit crummy because they already have a leg up by virtue of not having to qualify, but I doubt it will eventually move the needle much.
With each country, I'll also compare with my predictions of last year. Should be fun.
Final note: these previews and reviews come before the pre-parties and rehearsals. A lot can change between those.
Is this the Semi of Death?
Before all the entries were out, it looked like it was going to be. But honestly I now think Semi 2 is the stronger of the two, though not by much.
01. Cyprus
Entry: Silia Kapsis - Liar
Language: English
Quick description: Girlybop, inspired by Britney Spears
What came before? Many people are aware Cyprus would really like to win the ESC one day. Since their 2nd place in 2018, they've mostly been churning out vaguely Mediterranean pop bops, but with somewhat diminishing returns.
Best Cypriot result so far: 2nd in 2018. Cyprus holds the record for most performances without a single win - standing at 40 years now.
Qualification streak: +1
Opinion: It's alright. After Chanel's 2nd place show and Noa Kirel's 3rd place show with big dance breaks, Cyprus looks likely to make their version of it. At least it doesn't look boring.
Snarky opinion: Overproduced, literal hand-me-down.
Prediction: Qualifying, though not by much.
Shot at winning: 0%.
How bad was my prediction last year: I predicted qualification and I was right.
02. Serbia
Entry: Teya Dora - Ramonda
Language: Serbian
Quick description: Mournful ballad
What came before? Serbia won the Eurovision Song Contest on its first entry as an independent nation in 2007, with Marija Šerifović's 'Molitva'. Serbia tended to do pretty well after, usually qualifying for the final, with latter-day entries showing a really versatile and exciting side of Serbia's music scene. Serbia has one of the longest current qualification streaks.
Best Serbian result so far: Won once (2007), came 3rd once (2012).
Qualification streak: +5
Opinion: An understated but artsy ballad that (literally) blossoms at the end, with the guts to start really silently in a Contest known for its loudness. Also, I don't think any country has ever sent in a song about the aftermath of World War I. All in all, it's a mature, soulful performance. Could be undone by potentially tacky staging.
Snarky opinion: Sad girl version of 'Molitva'.
Prediction: Qualifying. Anyone's guess what it will do in the final. Some think Portugal's entry might weigh it down, but they might as well lift each other up. It doesn't help Teya Dora has been put into the dreaded 'death slot' as the night's second performer.
Shot at winning: 0%.
How bad was my prediction last year: I did predict Luke Black would qualify, but hugely overestimated his chances of winning. In my defence: his sound mix at the live event was not great and his vocal sounded weak.
03. Lithuania
Entry: Silvester Belt - Luktelk
Language: Lithuanian
Quick description: Emo techno
What came before? Lithuania has alternated decent years with years of not qualifying. I would say they are mostly regarded a mid-tier nation with occasional cracks at the sub-top.
Best Lithuanian result so far: 6th in 2006
Qualifcation streak: +3
Opinion: Lithuania's become a mild fan favourite over the years. Not to be dismissive but I do think that they loom larger in the enfranchised audience's mind because they're the only Baltic country not to have won ESC yet. When we look at actual results they're certainly a reliable performer and this offering looks to continue down that path. There's a stylish blend of emotion and hard techno here that looks and sounds complete.
Snarky opinion: Steal a pre-chorus from Hooverphonic's 'Amalfi' and fill the rest with style over substance, and you've got 'Luktelk'!
Prediction: Qualifying, then ending halfway the table.
Shot at winning: 0%.
How bad was my prediction last year: I correctly predicted Monika Linkytė would qualify but I hadn't thought she'd come in the upper half of the Grand Final table.
04. Ireland
Entry: Bambie Thug - Doomsday Blue
Language: English
Quick description: Gothic musical theatre meets hardcore metal
What came before? The days of Ireland being a Eurovision juggernaut are long past us. Barring a few bright spots in 2000, 2006 and 2011, Ireland has consistently performed poorly. Even when it did make it into the finals, it got destroyed there, becoming last in 2007 and 2013, and also becoming last in the Semis in 2019, 2021 and 2023. Apparently the Irish public at large thinks "it's all political" but as ESC Tom (who himself is Irish) pointed out, the fact that most Irish entries in the past decades haven't done well in Irish charts speaks volumes. Why would Europe like their songs if Ireland itself doesn't like them to begin with?
Best Irish result so far: Won 7 times (1970, 1980, 1987, 1992, 1993, 1994 and 1996), which is a record they now share with Sweden. In addition, singer Johnny Logan is known as Mr. Eurovision on account of winning the contest two times as a performer (1980 and 1987) and one time as a producer (1992). Lastly, Ireland came 2nd 4 times (1967, 1984, 1990 and 1997). I will never forgive Ireland for unleashing Riverdance on the global public, though.
Qualification streak: -4
Opinion: After a series of mostly forgettable entries, Ireland has finally decided to shake things up and send a risky entry that's not meant as a derisive joke (looking at you, Jedward and Dustin). The utter weirdness and uncompromising nature of this entry would normally fit more out-of-the-box contestants like Georgia, but I'm personally all here for it. Its abrasiveness and artistry is amazing, and while I know many people will absolutely not like this, those who do will hopefully enthusiastically vote for it.
Snarky opinion: -
Prediction: Might qualify. If it does, its end result is very, very unpredictable.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: I was right to predict Wild Youth wouldn't qualify. In fact, their Semi Final performance was even more cringey than I had expected. Sorry lads.
--. United Kingdom
Entry: Olly Alexander - Dizzy
Language: English
Quick description: Pop house
What came before? While the UK had been a Eurovision laughing stock, culminating in back-to-back last places in 2019 and 2021 (the last of which even received the very first 'double nul' score), Sam Ryder's 2nd place in 2022 revitalised the UK. Ryder's work is not to be underestimated, because at the time, British entries were suffering not just from bad quality, but also from simply being British.
Best British result so far: Won five times (1967, 1969, 1976, 1981, 1997), came 2nd 15(!) times (1959, 1960, 1961, 1964, 1965, 1968, 1970, 1975, 1977, 1988, 1989, 1992, 1993, 1998 and 2022) and 3rd 3 times (1973, 1980, 2002). The UK also came last 5 times (2003, 2008, 2010, 2019, 2021)..
Opinion: Initial reactions indicate the public expected more from an established name like Olly Alexander, but the song isn't bad. It's a well-produced slick pop affair that could do pretty well if staged and sung well (where last year's Mae Muller sunk). If either or both are bad though, the end result could be disappointing and might bring our short-lived Britainaissance in the ESC to a premature end.
Snarky opinion: This entry is miles above what the UK used to deliver in the aughts and tens, but still falls quite short of the high level the ESC has risen to.
Prediction: Middle of the pack.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: Pretty bad. I thought Mae Muller could reach top 10 but she ended up bottom 5. The studio version of her track was very nice (and in fact was a better track than this offering) but her live vocals fell apart completely.
05. Ukraine
Entry: Jerry Heil & alyona alyona - Maria & Teresa
Language: Ukrainian
Quick description: Hallowed pop and rap
What came before? Ukraine is a Eurovision superpower on par with Sweden and Italy. Its image looms large with even the casual Eurovision viewer, discounting the terrible war the country finds itself in. Ukraine is a country that seems to understand the modern Festival at its core. Since entering the contest in 2003, they have never not qualified for the Grand Final.
Best Ukrainian result so far: Won 3 times (2004, 2016, 2022), came 2nd twice (2007, 2008) and 3rd once (2013).
Qualification streak: +13 (barring two wins)
Opinion: After years of outstanding quality, I fear this one is a lesser offering. The haunting, almost dirge-like pop production is very well done but I find the rap bit a bad fit and it goes on for way too long. Then again, I initially also found their 2022 winner 'Stefania' to cram too many things in at once, but once staged things came together surprisingly well, so it shows you what I know. Admittedly it also bothers me a little to uncritically sing the praise of Mother Theresa, who was unmasked after her death as being an absolutely garbage human being masquerading as a do-gooder.
Snarky opinion: Ukraine can't let go of its parent complex.
Prediction: Qualifying, but not by the huge margins the fandom seems to expect.
Shot at winning: 2%. Might well become a shock bad performance though and flame out.
How bad was my prediction last year: Not bad. I gave Ukraine a 15% chance to end up winning and they ended up 6th.
06. Poland
Entry: Luna - The Tower
Language: English
Quick description: Faerie house
What came before? Poland has had a bit of a jobber image for the past 15 years at the contest, with entries all over the place, but rarely ending up in a good place.
Best Polish result so far: 2nd place in 1994, on their very first participation.
Qualification streak: +2
Opinion: Radio-friendly indie-sounding electronic track reminiscent of Grimes and CHVRCHES. The sounds's been around for over a decade and could be considered slightly out-of-date, but it's alright. Therein lies its greatest problem. As Alesia Michelle has said, "Poland has qualified with less", true, but it's hardly a ringing endorsement.
Snarky opinion: wish.com Grimes
Prediction: May or may not qualify.
Shot at winning: 0%.
How bad was my prediction last year: Very bad. After the national final's disasterpiece for Blanka, I thought we might have even been heading for one of the worst ESC performances in years. But not only did she qualify on the back of an admittedly strong performance and did she embrace the cheesiness of it all (hello CapCut-effects), Blanka's final result was not even bottom 5.
07. Croatia
Entry: Baby Lasagna - Rim Tim Tagi Dim
Language: English
Quick description: Rammstein-light infused with a techno break
What came before? Croatia has had middling ESC results at best in the past 15 years.
Best Croatian result so far: 4th place twice (1996 and 1999).
Qualification streak: +1
Opinion: Bookmakers see this as the potential winner (though not by a huge margin) and I can see why. 'Rim Tim Dagi Dim' is impactful, rock-y and funny in so many ways and is also very immediate. It's almost unconceivable that Baby Lasagna was a a replacement for another artist that dropped out in the Croatian pre-selection. Some have made comparisons with Finland's entry from last year (which came 2nd), but that doesn't ring true. 'Rim Tim Dagi Dim' covers a completely different topic and reaches more into folk/rock territory.
Snarky opinion: wish.com Rammstein
Shot at winning: 20%
How bad was my prediction last year: Totally off-base, I thought it wouldn't even qualify. I'll admit Let 3's entry didn't click for me until the Grand Final.
08. Iceland
Entry: Hera Björk - Scared of Heights
Language: English
Quick description: Club pop from 2002
What came before? Iceland has been more willing to experiment than other Scandinavian countries, sometimes to their detriment. They have generally been re-cast into a favourable spotlight with the general audience after - believe it or not - 2019's divisive but uncompromising Hattari and the calculated hipster awkwardness of Daði Freyr. They've since switched back to safer entries though. Also to their detriment, I might add.
Best Icelandic result so far: Came 2nd in 1999 and 2009.
Qualification streak: -1
Opinion: This is not a bad song by any means and banks on early aughts nostalgia. It does really break the idea of Iceland as an experimental country, especially after their more mainstream entries in 2023 and 2022. Once seen as a country really wanting to win ESC, there now seems to be an almost deliberate strategy just to be there. I suppose it doesn't help that the Icelandic public at large is one of the most outspoken against Israel's participation. All in all, I enjoy 'Scared of Heights' but in a strong season as this one is, it flounders.
Snarky opinion: Engelbert Humperdinck's catastrophic entry v2
Prediction: DOA.
Shot at winning: 0%, likely to come bottom 5 in its Semi.
How bad was my prediction last year: Pretty bad. I thought if Diljà could fix her staging, it'd be a shoe-in for the Grand Final and even had a very small shot at winning. Unfortunately, her staging wasn't fixed and she didn't make it out of the Semis.
--. Germany
Entry: Isaak - Always on the Run
Language: English
Quick description: Big pop Rag 'N Bone Man.
What came before? Germany's been on a long string of disappointing results with a kind of airy "throw things at the wall and see what sticks" vibe.
Best German result so far: Won twice (1982 and 2010), 2nd place 4 times (1980, 1981, 1985, 1987) and 3rd place 5 times (1970, 1971, 1972, 1994, 1999). They also came last 9 times. For a country with its pedigree of participations, results have been very underwhelming since the early 1980s.
Opinion: 'Always on the Run' is a perfectly solid soul-rock offering but also very middle-of-the-road. Germany's national final didn't do Isaak any wonders in terms of staging, so who knows it could be improved and attract the votes of an older and slightly more conservative audience. Isaak is a very competent singer, but the best I think Germany can hope for now is escaping the bottom 5. It's very sad that Germany wasn't rewarded for experimenting a little with Jendrik in 2021 or for Lord of the Lost in 2023, but unfortunately that's how the cookie crumbled.
Snarky opinion: The 'Nice Guy' of the 2024 Contest
Prediction: Bottom 10.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: Very bad, I thought Lord of the Lost even had a small chance of winning, but a comparable offering from Australia hoovered up all of the 'metal' vote and juries paid it dust on account of their mostly pop-oriented compositions. Probably the biggest shame of ESC 2023. At least Lord of the Lost gained a bigger fan base.
09. Slovenia
Entry: Raiven - Veronica
Language: Slovenian
Quick description: Dark pop with a witchy edge
What came before? While not outright losing in the Grand Finals, Slovenia's record is a pretty bleak one. They don't carry the best image to ESC, and frankly never did. Last year's Joker Out was a fan favourite, but didn't perform super-well.
Best Slovenian result so far: 7th two times (1995, 2001).
Qualification streak: +1
Opinion: This is my pre-season favourite. To me, it has it all: artistry, an interesting song structure, drama, an unusual theme (a woman accused of witchcraft in the Middle Ages!) and bits and pieces (that "rrrr!") to keep me on the edge of my seat and lots of drama. I accept not everyone shares my opinion, though.
Snarky opinion: Consolation prize entry for Raiven after trying for years, lol
Prediction: Qualifying, then ending up somewhere between 15-20.
Shot at winning: 1% because I want to believe.
How bad was my prediction last year: I predicted non-qualification but I was wrong there. My belief that despite Joker Out's charm and praise from the fandom they were basically LPS v2 was vindicated with their bottom 5 result in the Grand Final though.
10. Finland
Entry: Windows95man - No rules!
Language: English
Quick description: 90s eurodance parody
What came before? Finland's recent ESC record has been spotty at best. While often qualifying for the Grand Final, they usually strand there unceremoniously. Finland has tried out all manner of genres, artists and vibes, but seems to score best with rock and metal, which is unsurprising, since the country has the highest density of metal bands per 1,000 inhabitants.
Best Finnish result so far: Won once (2006) with fondly-remembered monster rockers Lordi, who arguably ushered in the prelude to ESC's current Golden Age. Came 2nd last year.
Qualification streak: +3
Opinion: While dedicated to the bit so it seems reductionist to say 'No rules!' is a "joke" entry - it really is. The biggest problem for me is that the fun of this entry has diminishing returns on subsequent viewings. Of course, most people will only see this once or twice so it still could have a big televote impact.
Snarky opinion: "We didn't win last year so now we're taking a big steaming dump on the Contest."
Prediction: Qualifying, but its Grand Final results are very hard to predict.
Shot at winning: 0%, especially because there are at least two other entries (Austria and the Netherlands) serving 90s nostalgia without the ridicule.
How bad was my prediction last year: I underestimated Käärijä a little but by saying he had a 2% chance at winning. Turns out his chances were a lot higher.
11. Moldova
Entry: Natalia Barbu - In the Middle
Language: English
Quick description: Orchestral bop
What came before? Moldova qualified for the Grand Final 12 out of 17 times since their first entry in 2005. The enfranchised ESC audience as well as the general public has come to recognise Moldova as a country with understated but clearly present ambitions to one day win the whole thing and sees e.g. Zdob și Zdub, Natalia Gordienko and SunStroke Project as Eurovision nobility. In addition, Moldova's staging tends to be free-spirited and infectious. The juries tend to be more cautious in their voting patterns, and outsiders still struggle with name-recognition, but Moldova is a consistent player in ESC's sub-top. I am quite confident that barring unforeseen events, one day Moldova will win ESC within the next 15 years.
Best Moldovan result so far: 3rd in 2017.
Qualification streak: +4
Opinion: Natalia Barbu already participated in 2007, continuing Moldova's strange tradition of sending artists multiple times (Natalia Gordienko, SunStroke Project and Pasha Parfeni also went twice, and Zdob și Zdub even three times). 'In the Middle' is languishing near the bottom of the odds, and while its lyrics are trite and the song's composition is a bit middle-of-the-road, there are interesting things to work with here - including the burst of operatic vocals at the end as well as the prominent violins.
Snarky opinion: Winning entry if it had entered in 1998.
Prediction: Might qualify, but it's on very thin ice.
Shot at winning: 0% and even its qualification chances look in danger, but never count out Moldova to MacGuyver something out of thin air and an equally thin budget.
How bad was my prediction last year: Not too bad. I did (hestitantly) predict them to qualify, and they did, then ending up in the right table of the results.
--. Sweden
Entry: Marcus & Martinus - Unforgettable
Language: English
Quick description: Bombastic, slick house-pop
What came before? Since 2011, Sweden has replaced Ireland as the country to beat. They now occupy a joint 1st place in the all-time rankings since their 7th win last year, and also equal Ireland for the record of the same artist winning the Contest twice.
Best Swedish result so far: Won 7 times (1974, 1984, 1991, 1999, 2012, 2015, 2023), came 2nd once (1966) and 3rd 6 times (1983, 1985, 1995, 1996, 2011 and 2014).
Qualification streak: +9 (barring three wins)
Opinion: You can't hate on this track - its production is flawless, gripping as well as radio-friendly. Perhaps some will find it too smooth and too produced, but as one of my favourite Eurovision analysists ESC Tom has said (go check him out, he makes amazing content), let's not hate on Sweden for being the diligent star student of the class - the others need to up their game. Now, 'Unforgettable' is not a winner, but I easily see it cruising to the right hand side of the Grand Final's result table.
Snarky opinion: A mature version of Jedward, but still not terribly exciting.
Prediction: Top 15.
Shot at winning: 0%.
How bad was my prediction last year: I did give Loreen the biggest chance to win again, but then again a child could have predicted that.
12. Azerbaijan
Entry: Fahree featuring Ilkin Dovlatov - Özünlə Apar
Language: English, Azeri
Quick description: Oriental pop
What came before? Azerbaijan tends to send smart entries that are in tune with Eurovision's mood and temperature. Out of their 15 entries, only two missed finals qualification.
Best Azeri result so far: Won once (2011), came 2nd once (2013) and came 3d once (2009).
Qualification streak: -1
Opinion: I have a feeling the fandom is sleeping on this entry. It's a very atmospheric, oriental sounding mid-tempo song infused with cultural tradition (whereas Azerbaijan used to shop around Europe for its productions). Also love Ilkin Dovlatov and his glorious moustache belting their heart out.
Snarky opinion: This is sad, and you should feel sad (for ethnic cleansing).
Prediction: Qualifying, then ending up in the bottom 10.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: I was too much influenced by Azerbaijan's track record and cautiously predicted TuralTuranX might qualify or even do a surprise sweep in the Grand Final, but yeah, I should have known their tepid (if nice) entry was a rare DOA in Azerbaijan's ESC history.
13. Australia
Entry: Electric Fields - One Milkali
Language: English
Quick description: Mellow electropop
What came before? Despite this only being Australia's 9th performance, their record so far is very impressive, with 7/8 qualifications. Apart from the most hardened skeptics or casuals who believe Australia doesn't 'belong' in ESC, our friends from down-under have more than earned their keep, and it feels like it's only a matter of time until they win ESC.
Best Australian result so far: 2nd in 2016.
Qualification streak: +2
Opinion: Australia's offering this year is kind of a black box. The "music clip" if you can call it that, is obviously very low-effort and has dampened reception, but this could blossom out to become a solemn moment of togetherness and positivity live. It's also lovely how the track gets a light Aboriginal culture touch, but honestly I don't think that will matter much to the public at large.
Snarky opinion: The theme track to next year's new age quack cure.
Prediction: Qualifying, but barely. Then relegated to the bottom 10.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: I was on the money thinking Voyager would edge out Germany's Lord of the Lost in the same hard rock / metal playing field, though I did overestimate their chances at winning by a little.
14. Portugal
Entry: Iolanda - Grito
Language: Portuguese
Quick description: Modern fado
What came before? Portugul is still riding the ripples of their win in 2017 but later entries seem to have fallen back into the fold of middling results.
Best Portuguese result so far: Won once (2017). Portugal also came last 4 times, though (1964, 1974, 1997 and 2018).
Qualification record: +3
Opinion: 'Grito' continues Portugal's trend of "we do whatever we want, fuck you" and do so successfully, showcasing their unique musical culture. The song is also a very mature and serious offering, which I think will appeal to the more artsy viewer as well as people who watch ESC specifically to see countries bring their language(s) and traditions to the front. Iolanda's performance at the Festival da Canção looked stage-ready.
Snarky opinion: Struggle session that's a struggle to sit out.
Prediction: Qualifying, then it remains to be seen how it fares. Serbia occupies a similar space with their entry this year, but I see both qualifying. I think Teya Dora's song is a bit stronger, but Portugal is in a better running order slot.
Shot at winning: 0%.
How bad was my prediction last year: I said Mimicat wouldn't quality, but she did. She did end up bottom 5 though.
15. Luxembourg
Entry: Tali - Fighter
Language: English, French
Quick description: Eclectic girlbop
What came before? Luxembourg rejoins the ESC after a 31-year absence. The EBU rewarded them for this (and also the fat wads of cash they bring) by giving them one of the best slots to celebrate it. It's also a message to other countries who've been gone for some time: "Come back, and we'll support you". There is some grumbling in the fandom that Luxembourg is sending an artist who is not Luxembourgian and their pre-selection process was fully run by an Israeli company, with all but one finalist being foreigners, but on the other hand this is also deliciously Luxembourgian. All of their wins were achieved by French singers and they've sent participants to the Contest from Ireland, Germany and even the United States. So them doing this is in fact a continuation of their proud mercenary tradition.
Best Luxembourgian result so far: Won 5 times (1961, 1965, 1972, 1973, 1983), came 3rd twice (1962, 1986). They also came last 3 times (1958, 1960, 1970).
Qualification record: -
Opinion: This isn't a usual, radio-friendly girlbop and has some strange and abrasive moments, which might make it stand out. Depending on the live performance, it could melt down into a hot mess or come together as something clever and memorable.
Snarky opinion: Forgettable try-hard pop.
Prediction: I would not be surprised if this didn't qualify, despite its running order slot, if they just copy and paste the national finals performance, which honestly looked a bit disjointed and cheap. If it does qualify, I think it might sink to the bottom 5. It also doesn't help that Tali's brother (whom she dedicated this track to) is a soldier in the Israeli army.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: -
My qualifying prediction for semi-final 1 (before rehearsals):
In no particular order:
- Azerbaijan
- Croatia
- Cyprus
- Finland
- Ireland
- Lithuania
- Portugal
- Serbia
- Slovenia
- Ukraine
What was my success rate last year? 7/10
- Azerbaijan
- Czechia
- Finland
- Malta
- Moldova
- Netherlands
- Norway
- Serbia
- Sweden
- Switzerland
