Eurovision Song Contest 2026: Only post of the year

Hi. For the longest time, I was in dubio whether to even engage with the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest after it became clear the EBU was only going to apply the weakest guardrails imaginable against Israel's abuse of the Contest and allowed it to stay on as a participating member. For the low hundreds of people who read this blog - I don't begrudge you for disengaging (ninja edit a couple of hours before the first Semi).

Due to my weaker engagement with the 2026 edition, I won't be posting big analyses of all the participating songs and analyses, but I do want to share my predictions for who's going to make it to the Grand Final, if only so there's a public record here that survives into an edition where Israel is not participating.

What's different this year is that the juries are back in the semis, which makes predictions harder. Oh, by the way, this was written as the first pictures of the rehearsals were coming out.

"ARE YOU ACTUALLY ANY GOOD AT PREDICTING?"

Slightly better than average. To score better than statistically random, because each time 10 countries go through from a 15-16 semi field, you need to score at least 70%.

• 2023 SF1: 8/10
• 2023 SF2: 8/10
• 2024 SF1: 9/10
• 2024 SF2: 7/10
• 2025 SF1: 8/10
• 2025 SF2: 7/10

This yields an approximate average of 79% correct guesses over three years, which makes me about on par with bookies.

SEMI-FINAL 1

Who will make it?

Bookies predict Finland, Greece, Sweden, Israel, Moldova, Serbia, Croatia, Lithuania and Portugal. I fully agree.

Upsets?

Apart from San Marino and Georgia, any other country predicted not to qualify might pull of a stunt, too, but that would depend on surefire qualifiers failing, which I don't really see happening.

Final prediction (in order)

01 - Finland

02 - Greece

03 - Moldova

04 - Israel

05 - Sweden

06 - Serbia

07 - Croatia

08 - Lithuania

09 - Poland

10 - Portugal

SEMI-FINAL 2

Who will make it?

Bookies predict Australia, Denmark, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Malta, Czechia, Norway and Albania. SF2 is broadly considered more competitive, and with good reason, but I don't think we'll see many upsets here. My prediction is that Armenia will make it in lieu of Cyprus. Why? Armenia is reliably good at staging and its entry is a televote magnet. Bulgaria has been out of sorts for years, and I'm afraid they'll pull a Ronela (i.e. messy, even vulgar staging).

Upsets?

Switzerland, Luxembourg and Latvia all have a chance. Cyprus, Malta, Albania and Czechia all have spotty track records in qualifying and staging. Also: I'm not so convinced by Australia. So I reckon we'll see one to two upsets here.

Final prediction (in order)

01 - Romania

02 - Ukraine

03 - Bulgaria

04 - Australia

05 - Czechia

06 - Malta

07 - Albania

08 - Armenia

10 - Denmark

Eurovision Song Contest 2025: Predictions before the show

So, we're in the final stretch now. The pre-parties and rehearsals have happened so it's time to take a critical look at my predictions for both Semis and see if anything's changed. I haven't seen the rehearsal clips for the Big Five and Switzerland yet, but these don't really factor into the equation here.

"I've heard some people say this is a weak year. Is it?"

Opinions are always subjective and "weak" is a relative term. Almost any entry from the 2025 field would have easily achieved top 5 or even victory if you're judging by 2005 standards, for instance. For me personally, and I think this is what some fans mean when they decry 2025 is a weak year, there are fewer entries that I was immediately gripped by and fewer entries that have grown on me. More gracefully, I'd say the Class of 2025 is generally competent and up to 2025 production, songwriting and staging standards.

Overall I think 2024 and 2025 are comparable in terms of both floor and ceiling, whereas 2023 was more extreme on either end (on the high-end, the performances of Loreen and Käärijä are still being talked about as high marks of showmanship, but on the lower end, the awfulness of fundless Teodor Andrei and the creeptastic show from the Piqued Jacks were definite recalls of a messier, more amateuristic era).

Semi-Final 1

Prediction from April 9 (in no particular order):

Ukraine

Sweden

Poland

Albania

San Marino

The Netherlands

Norway

Estonia

Belgium

Cyprus

Has anything changed my opinions?

San Marino unfortunately hasn't changed their staging that much. Historically, staging that centres on a DJ turns off televoters, and while Gabry Ponte has energy, his singers have elected not only to remain masked (which I think matters less than some people think) but also to remain static and on the sidelines. There are also concerns about Cyprus over-staging their entry and Theo Evan not able to keep up an intricate choreo and a vocal at the same time - but what I've seen looks and sounds okay so far.

We've only been fed 30 second clips, but I have my doubts about Ukraine's costume and lighting choices that make their lead singer Daniel look even more androgynous than he already does, and in a smudgy way that kind of cheapens his appearance. I don't think their qualification chances are threatened, but their score could be lower because of that.

I still think Estonia will do a little worse than many expect and Belgium will squeak by. On that note, while I love the un-Flemish confidence the Flemish delegation has tried to project with this entry, the talk on national television about winning is delusional. I agree no artist should go to the Contest to meekly round out the numbers and accept their fate, but there is something to be said for expectation management. Qualifying and ending up on the left-side of the scoreboard would be a good result. But anyway, the remaining 8 have all done what was expected of them on the pre-party circuit and feel quite safe.

So, if San Marino isn't making it, I think Iceland is taking their spot. If neither Cyprus nor San Marino make it, I think Azerbaijan could be in play again if they stage their entry well, or even Croatia if they put on a really strong show (although it sits dead last in the odds right now). I would even wager Croatia has a more unique package and it is helped by its running order. I've seen some people making a case for Portugal, too, but I think for that two happen it needs more than just San Marino and Cyprus flubbing it.

Are there potentials for shock NQs?

In my heart of hearts I think Estonia could be a shock NQ. It's early in the running order, the fandom doesn't really like the entry much and being a somewhat famous artist absolutely does not guarantee a good result. There's a graveyard full of Cascadas, Engelbert Humperdincks, Ollies, Bonnie Tylers and more to attest to that. I still think it's going to qualify, though. Either Belgium or Cyprus could also still sink if the vocal performance is shaky or the showmanship isn't there, but after seeing the rehearsal clips, I no longer consider that a strong possibility.

Are there potentials for shock qualifications? 

As I said above, I think Croatia could qualify, but it will be on the back of incredibly thoughtful staging, and nothing suggests the competition is lacking in that regard. Slovenia could be a shock qualifier too if people connect with the plain authenticity of the performance - the surprise they've cooked up to include Klemen's wife (who the song is about) in the staging is quite clever. Also, the audience does turn out for heart-felt ballads in the Semis, Latvia's Dons got through last year on the back of a vulnerable, engaging performance, while everyone had the poor guy dead last in the odds. If Iceland feels too juvenile, Azerbaijan doesn't connect and Croatia falls of the wagon like most people expect, Slovenia could qualify.

Verdict: swapping San Marino for Iceland.

Final Semi-Final 1 prediction (in order):

1. Sweden
2. Poland
3. Albania
4. Norway
5. Ukraine
6. Estonia
7. The Netherlands
8. Cyprus
9. Iceland
10. Belgium

How off the mark was I last year?

I had 9/10 correct and had 4/10 in the correct order (1st, 2nd, 3rd and 8th).

Semi-Final 2

Prediction from April 11 (in no particular order):

Finland

Greece

Australia

Malta

Austria

Latvia

Lithuania

Serbia

Ireland

Czechia

Has anything changed my opinions?

Like last year, Semi 2 has proven to be a lot harder to predict. Like last year, I seemed to have forgotten that yes, Israel will unfortunately qualify, though I doubt they will win their Semi. That means that at least one of my prognosticised qualifiers gets the boot. Before I get on to that, I think Latvia is safer than many people seem to think: yes, the bookies aren't seeing it and there's Latvia's terrible qualification record to keep in mind, but it stands out as a very unique entry and the type of music some audiences actually watch Eurovision for: the kind of music they would never hear otherwise on the radio.

The two countries that are most obviously on the precipice for me are Ireland and Serbia. If Luxembourg could snatch Ireland's spot, especially with more its Junior Eurovision-like staging and performance. In addition, Ireland contends with Denmark in the same upbeat dance-pop territory. It will all come down to staging. Fan support for Denmark is huge this year, but even with vastly improved staging, 'Hallucination' remains slightly dated Loreen-lite fare. Luxembourg has a better running order slot, too. In addition, Denmark doesn't have Sweden, Norway and Iceland in this Semi.

Serbia is a whole other bag. While it is served (serbed) well by its running order and Princ is a very competent singer, their staging direction they've chosen isn't moving the needle - the clip of him getting dragged across the stage looks goofy. Many observers' minds will drift to Montenegro, which is also sending a typical Balkan ballad that is sung just as competently, but feels more personal and gripping. Montenegro is however murdered by its running order slot (and the costuming choices for Nina aren't great either). 

As I sidenote, I think it's likely Georgia might get the dreaded nul points. I also think Malta will not get as many votes as some people think. I would not be shocked if Lithuania didn't qualify either - people may simply not be in the mood to be reminded of the terrible state of world affairs, and that song's last minute will be off-putting for some people, no matter how competently the package is executed. I'm fairly confident about the first 7 in the list making it though.

Last point: don't discount Armenia. Their rehearsal clip shows their reliability at staging well, and despite Parg's sub-par performance in a national final where everything felt bad, gaudy and screechy, his vocals sound a lot better. Let's not forget that Luxembourg and Ireland could drag each other down by stealing votes from each other, and so could Serbia and Montenegro. Armenia doesn't actually have any other entry competing in the same space.

Are there potentials for shock NQs?

Honestly, no. Maybe Lithuania?

Are there potentials for shock qualifications? 

The only real shock qualification would be Georgia, but that's not going to happen.

Verdict: Ireland and Serbia are out, Armenia and Israel are in.

Final Semi-Final 2 prediction (in order):

1. Finland
2. Israel
3. Czechia
4. Greece
5. Austria
6. Malta
7. Australia
8. Latvia
9. Lithuania
10. Armenia

How off the mark was I last year?

I had 7/10 correct, which is only slightly better than random, and my asterisk notes were all wrong. Of the ones I had correct, I had predicted none in the correct spot.

Eurovision Song Contest 2025: Semi-Final 2

I'll run down the countries in order of appearance. With each country, I'll also compare with my predictions of last year. This is a more ballad-heavy Semi, which makes it a little more difficult for ballads to qualify (and they already have some trouble with a televote-only system).

01. Australia

Entry: Go-Jo – Milkshake man

Language: English

Quick description: Cheeky ‘80s-inspired electropop

What came before? Despite this only being Australia's 10^th performance, their record so far is very impressive, with 7/9 qualifications. Apart from the most hardened skeptics or casuals who believe Australia doesn't 'belong' in ESC, our friends from down-under have more than earned their keep. 

Best Australian result so far: 2^nd in 2016.

Qualification streak: -1

Opinion: This is an entry with a pretty obvious double entendre. In the words of Go-Jo himself: “It’s about being the loudest and proudest version of yourself. Oh, and it’s also about cum.” However, as first in the running order, they’ll have to stage it in a family-friendly way. Barring the mess that was last year, Go-Jo should be able to stage this in a fun way that draws attention. The song has an overall fun vibe to it, too.

Snarky opinion: Why does everyone keep singing about goddamn food and sex this year?

Prediction: Qualifying.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I correctly predicted ‘One milkali’ wouldn’t qualify. The live performance was even worse than I had expected. It looked improvised on the spot and the vocals were pretty raw.

02. Montenegro

Entry: Nina Žižić – Dobrodošli

Language: Montenegrin

Quick description: Classic Balkan ballad

What came before? Starting in 2007, Montenegro participated 12 times (including this year) and has had a qualification record about as abysmal as San Marino’s, making it to only two Grand Finals. It is returning to the ESC after two gap years. 

Best Montenegrin result so far: 13^th in 2015. Still better than San Marino, I suppose!

Qualification streak: -5

Opinion: Nina Žižić already participated in the ESC with 2009’s Who See (an entry that was undeservedly absolutely murdered by the juries in its Semi) but is now bringing a classic Balkan ballad to the fore. It’s a well-crafted song and there are no doubts about the live vocals, but this entry isn’t helped by its bad running order. Counter to popular wisdom, televote audiences do show love to ballads on occasion, if they are staged with the utmost precision and quality.

Snarky opinion: A Very Serious Performance by your local art gallery proprietor

Prediction: I lean more towards not qualifying, which is unfortunate because it could mean we’re losing Montenegro again in 2026.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: -

03. Ireland

Entry: EMMY – Laika Party

Language: English

Quick description: Eurodance bop about the first dog in space

What came before? The days of Ireland being a Eurovision juggernaut are long past us. Barring a few bright spots, Ireland has consistently performed poorly in the past 25 years. Apparently the Irish public at large thinks "it's all political" but as ESC Tom (who himself is Irish) pointed out, the fact that most Irish entries in the past decades haven't done well in Irish charts speaks volumes. Why would Europe like their songs if Ireland itself doesn't like them to begin with? Last year offered a break with the phenomenal Bambie Thug.

Best Irish result so far: Won 7 times (1970, 1980, 1987, 1992, 1993, 1994 and 1996), which is a record they now share with Sweden. In addition, singer Johnny Logan is known as Mr. Eurovision on account of winning the contest two times as a performer (1980 and 1987) and one time as a producer (1992). Lastly, Ireland came 2^nd 4 times (1967, 1984, 1990 and 1997). I will never forgive Ireland for unleashing Riverdance on the global public, though.

Qualification streak: +1

Opinion: This is sweet bubblegum Eurodance fare in the vein of Aqua, which is not entirely unsurprising since Emmy is Norwegian. It’s a cute entry with an original take (“What if Laika didn’t die in space?”), but even the studio version already feels like it would be more appropriate for JESC, which isn’t helped by Emmy’s child-like vocal (this is not her doing this on purpose, she really does have that vocal colour). A silly or uninspired staging will sink this, I’m afraid, and she’s also not helped by the running order.

Snarky opinion: Going straight to the dogs with a song about a dog

Prediction: Leaning towards non-qualification.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I correctly predicted qualification, but given that I said the Grand Final performance was unpredictable, I can’t be too self-congratulatory about that.

04. Latvia

Entry: Tautumeitas – Bur man laimi

Language: Latvian

Quick description: Faerie-like folk choir

What came before? Latvia failed to qualify for the final 11 times. Despite winning the Contest back in 2002, they now share the space with a couple of other countries with the label "unpredictable and possibly weird", often enjoyed by the in-crowd but less favoured by the general public. They broke a 6 NQ streak in 2024.

Best Latvian result so far: Won once (2002), came 3^rd on their first participation in 2000 (which may have set the tone for "lovably quirky").

Qualification streak: +1

Opinion: I think this is a very unique and interesting proposition and might do well with parts of the audience that watch the ESC precisely to experience music they would otherwise never do on the radio or via regular streaming. Others might find it harder to latch onto, especially because of ‘Bur man laimi’’s somewhat uncommon and repetitive structure. Good staging could help, which the band has already proven they can do well at their national selection.

Snarky opinion: It’s Enya, but this time there’s 6 of them!

Prediction: I lean more towards qualification because there is nothing like it in its Semi and I’m confident it will be delivered well.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I went against my gut feeling and said Dons wouldn’t qualify, but he became his Semi’s shock qualifier, much to the wider ESC community’s delight.

05. Armenia

Entry: PARG – Survivor

Language: English

Quick description: Defiant stadium rap-rock

What came before? With three exceptions, ever since Armenia's first participation in 2006, they've qualified for every Grand Final. While Rosa Linn only came 20^th in 2022's Grand Final, her song exploded all over the world through TikTok later.

Best Armenian result so far: 4^th in 2008 and 2014.

Qualification streak: +3

Opinion: After years of successful internal selections, for some reason Armenia decided to organise national finals again. These were an unmitigated disaster on every level, with weak entries, bad production and awful performances. Parg was the least bad out of these, but still left a lot to be desired. The Armenian delegation is known to stage well, and I actually think ‘Survivor’ offers something genuinely captivating to work with. If Parg doesn’t manage to clean up his vocals and diction, this has the potential to become one of those “funny for all the wrong reasons” moments, especially with his fake laughter somewhere in the middle of the track.

Snarky opinion: Imagine Dragons from wish.com

Prediction: I would really like this to qualify but I remain on the fence until we’ve seen some rehearsal snapshots. To its advantage is that there's nothing else like this in its Semi.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year: Like in 2024, I correctly predicted qualification, though I overestimated Armenia's end result by a little. I guess I’m a bit of an Armenia-stan!

06. Austria

Entry: JJ – Wasted love

Language: English

Quick description: Popera meets techno

What came before? Austria has historically always been a bit of a jobber, with a small glory period between 2014 and 2018.

Best Austrian result so far: Won twice (1966 and 2014), came 3^rd once (2018). Also came last 7 times, but the last time that happened was in 1991.

Qualification streak: +2

Opinion: I think ‘Wasted love’ is an awesome entry in all the meanings of the word. While some have compared it to Nemo’s winning song from last year because of the operatic vocals, to me this one feels distinct enough to not be an uninspired copy. In fact, I think it does all the things Nemo did but does them even better. It remains to be seen whether the public thinks the same. Doing the vocal justice live should normally not be a problem (this is an area Austria has been spotty at in the past 5 years) as JJ is a trained opera vocalist.

Snarky opinion: What if Nemo but more bombastic?

Prediction: Qualification and then top 5.

Shot at winning: 30%. There is and has never been anything like it, and even response among casuals looks very strong. This is a track with incredible production values and grabs viewers by the neck, not letting up until its final note.

How bad was my prediction last year: 2023 and 2024 were kind of similar years. In both years, their entries were beloved by the fandom but hugely overestimated in my opinion. In both years, I went a little overboard with my predictions and thought they wouldn’t qualify, whereas they did, but in the end I felt slightly vindicated that both performed very poorly in the Grand Final. To be fair, 2024’s Kaleen wasn’t helped by a broadcast mishap during her performance.

--. United Kingdom

Entry: Remember Monday – What the hell just happened?

Language: English

Quick description: Queen-inspired mid-tempo girly banger

What came before? The UK has mostly been a Eurovision laughing stock in modern ESC history, culminating in back-to-back last places in 2019 and 2021 (the last of which even received the very first 'double nul' score). 2022 offered relief with a well-deserved 2^nd place and put the notion to bed people won’t vote for British entries because they’re British.

Best British result so far: Won five times (1967, 1969, 1976, 1981, 1997), came 2^nd 15(!) times (1959, 1960, 1961, 1964, 1965, 1968, 1970, 1975, 1977, 1988, 1989, 1992, 1993, 1998 and 2022) and 3^rd 3 times (1973, 1980, 2002). The UK also came last 5 times (2003, 2008, 2010, 2019, 2021).

Opinion: I’m afraid this one will land well short of expectations again. While the band exudes a carefree optimism and the song feels authentically British, reminiscent of Queen-like ‘80s pop, I’m afraid that the live version might come off chaotic and screechy. You’d think a country with a music industry as massive as the United Kingdom would find ways to prevent this, but it has consistently proven in the last 15 years that it fails almost every ESC assignment. It is a bit funny (and probably intentionally so) that ‘What the hell just happened?’ will come after an entry that has its bombast dialed up to 11.

Snarky opinion: 30-somethings still pretending they’re binge-drinking 20-somethings.

Prediction: Bottom 5. I know this is harsh and I hope I’ll be proven wrong for the British’ sake, but I’m nowhere near as optimistic as other analysts. A lot can be said about 2023’s Mae Muller and 2024’s Olly Alexander, but at least they had ambition. I’m not feeling that with this entry at all.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: While I didn’t share the top 10 visions most analysts had and thought a right-hand table finish was likely, even I hadn’t expected a bottom 5 result. The vocal wasn’t fully there and the staging was perhaps a bit too sexualised for the audience at large.  

07. Greece

Entry: Klavdia – Asteromáta

Language: Greek

Quick description: Melancholy ballad.

What came before? Greece's latter-day performances have been pretty inconsistent. The wave they rode on from 2001 to 2013 (barring some darker spots) seems to have abated, with the country relegated to subtop/middling status. 

Best Greek result so far: Won in 2005. Came 3^rd three times (2001, 2004 and 2008).

Qualification streak: +1

Opinion: A sweeping, epic ballad that feels true to Greek culture, led by a very capable vocalist (who bears more than a passing resemblance to Nana Moskouri). Greece doesn’t always stage well, but if it’s done right, I can see this making an impact, and it is easily a higher-quality offering than what we’re getting from Serbia and Montenegro. I honestly also think it’s a better ballad than what France has wheeled out.

Snarky opinion: -

Prediction: Qualifying, but not by much. The jury will show this love in the Grand Final.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly predicted qualification and was pretty spot on about a left-side table finish.

08. Lithuania

Entry: Katarsis – Tavo akys

Language: Lithuanian

Quick description: Dark emo rock

What came before? I would say they are mostly regarded a mid-tier nation with occasional cracks at the sub-top. It’s the only Baltic nation not to have won Eurovision, but they have had a pretty good track record in the recent years.

Best Lithuanian result so far: 6^th in 2006

Qualifcation streak: +4

Opinion: Very moody and sombre but not inaccessible. It will certainly stand out and I believe there is an audience for this, plus Lithuania reliably gets votes from its diaspora in the United Kingdom and Ireland, which will help Katarsis as well. Ultimately, the question is if enough of its target audience can be convinced. But I am part of that target audience (I love dark, brooding and melancholy music with an edge) and I have my doubts, especially about the very repetitive last minute.

Snarky opinion: Apocalyptic moaning that feels apt for the hellworld we live in.

Prediction: Qualifying, then relegated to bottom 10.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year: Nailed both qualification and eventual result.

09. Malta

Entry: Miriana Conte – SERVING

Language: English

Quick description: Naughty girlybop

What came before? Malta's recent record is quite spotty. They have a faint echo of the United Kingdom and Ireland's latter-day troubles in often trying to engineer a winning entry but then falling quite short. Around the early aughts there was buzz Malta was overdue for a win, but that noise has faded, even with a brief blip for Destiny's 2021 entry, that failed to produce an expected good result.

Best Maltese result so far: Came 2^nd twice (2002, 2005), and 3^rd twice (1992, 1998) as well. 

Qualification streak: -3

Opinion: This is probably one of the only entries casuals will have heard of during pre-season because it was originally named ‘Kant’ (Maltese for ‘singing’) and thus “serving kant” but the EBU requested last-minute it remove that word for its obviously thinly-veiled double entendre. Again, all quite apropos for the 69^th edition of the Contest. The entry itself is a fun bit of “yass queen” feminism and the fandom eats it up.

Snarky opinion: Let’s send a sassy fat lady again

Prediction: Qualifying, then ending up bottom 10. I’m not trying to be disparaging here, Malta has had big trouble attracting a sizable televote and failed to qualify with entries that were perfectly fine songs, so qualification is the goal in and off itself. People who think this might come top 5 while being aimed at a niche audience are delulu.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly saw the writing on the wall that Sarah Bonnici wasn’t going to qualify but her last place in her Semi was totally undeserved. Running order didn’t help.

10. Georgia

Entry: Mariam Shengelia – Freedom

Language: Georgian, English

Quick description: Old-fashioned and disjointed ballad 

What came before? If anything, Georgia tends to swing for the fences uncompromisingly (avant-garde house, angsty art rock, angry warrior songs, political disco, circus cabaret - basically Georgia has served up the entire traditional back catalogue of ESC in one speed run!). That deserves accolades, but the general audience hasn't been buying it. 

Best Georgian result so far: 9^th twice (2010, 2011).

Opinion: This unfortunately the typical product of a country broadcaster cowed by an increasingly authoritarian and pro-Russian regime: it’s always either bland kitsch braying about super-generic feelings and values, or thinly-veiled propaganda, and this entry somehow manages to be both. Mariam Shengelia is also known to be brazenly pro Georgian Dream, the party that has self-couped its way to authoritarianism in 2024. Disregarding all of that, the song feels abysmally dated, half-baked and much longer than its actual runtime and not in a good way. Sure, Shengelia can sing well and she looks very good, but this one is dead on arrival, arousing suspicions that it will be the excuse for Georgia to withdraw from the ESC next year. This convenient excuse is all the more helped by its shitty spot in the running order, coming right before a much better ballad.

Snarky opinion: Kitschy dictatorship ballad

Prediction: Not qualifying, potentially coming dead last in its Semi.

Shot at winning: -100%

How bad was my prediction last year? I correctly predicted Georgia would break its 6 NQ-streak.

--. France

Entry: Louane – Maman

Language: French

Quick description: Ballad

What came before? The last few years have revived France as an ESC participant who seems ardent to go for its 6^th win, especially after riding a wave of success in the JESC. I think France looms a bit larger in the minds of the enfranchised audience, and is often stuck in the unenviable position that the public seems to expect very stereotypically French entries (while brutally punishing the ones who don’t conform to the stereotype) but not always reward it with their votes.

Best French result so far: Won 5 times (1958, 1960, 1962, 1969, 1977), came 2^nd 5 times (1957, 1976, 1990, 1991 and 2021) and came 3^rd 7 times (1959, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1978, 1980 and 1981).

Opinion: Apparently this ballad about mums and motherhood really connects with a lot of people. While I agree it is the right mix of emotion and bombast at many points, I find the chorus to drag on for waaaay too long, and I hope France won’t repeat their weird staging mistakes of 2023 – this is a song that calls for intimate, subtle staging, not for the reveal they had during a rugby game at the Stade de France. Some analysts think this might win (as they thought in 2021, 2023 and 2024) but I personally don’t think it will. It for sure outshines the earlier ballads in this Semi though, which hurts the chances of Montenegro, Greece and Georgia, even if people can’t vote for France in this Semi.

Snarky opinion: Cliché ballad by France’s version of Adele

Prediction: Top 10

Shot at winning: 2%

How bad was my prediction last year: Kind of right. I had Slimane pegged for a top 15 spot, but he came 4^th.

11. Denmark

Entry: Sissal – Hallucination

Language: English

Quick description: Scandi mid-tempo house

What came before? Denmark has generally been on a downward trend since winning the ESC for the last time in 2013. Their broadcaster consistently refuses to put in the proper work, especially at staging, and seems to not have gotten the memo it's no longer 2013.

Best Danish result so far: Won twice (2000, 2013), came 2^nd once (2001) and came 3^rd two times (1988, 1989).

Qualification streak: -4

Opinion: I can actually copy-paste my 2024 opinion with little change: “Yes, the lyrics are kind of trite, but I like the overall composition of this song, the vocal sounds strong and the performer has some live stage presence. 'Hallucination' is an offering that would have shot to the top of the odds 10 years ago, but in a packed Contest like 2025, it may not stand out, and there are worries about potentially static staging. That the track liberally borrows from Loreen's signature style and sound is secondary.”

Snarky opinion: How to rip-off Loreen while totally not ripping off Loreen for the second time!

Prediction: Not qualifying if they don’t make huge changes to the staging.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I thought Denmark would scrape by an qualify, but they didn’t.

12. Czechia

Entry: ADONXS – Kiss kiss goodbye

Language: English

Quick description: Mid-tempo ballad

What came before? Czechia has yet to make any real impact on Eurovision, having only participated since 2007. Some of its entries have received modest hype, and the trendline looks mostly positive.

Best Czech result so far: 6^th place in 2018.

Qualification streak: -1

Opinion: A lot has been said about the fact that this song clearly needs to be experienced live during a show because it was created for that purpose, and I can buy that. ADONXS will stand out no matter what as the only male performer preceded by three female performers and succeeded by three female performers, so his running order is incredibly favourable. All in all, this song does nothing for me. I don’t hate it, but it feels like it was designed in a lab and has no actual meaning or emotion behind it.

Snarky opinion: Hot guy with a pedo moustache sings an AI-designed thing

Prediction: Until I see proof Czechia’s pulling out all the stops in their staging and execution, I think this could be a shock NQ.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly predicted NQ, but it’s not like Czechia didn’t try, and they honestly might have deserved to qualify for all the effort they put in.

13. Luxembourg

Entry: Laura Thorn – La poupée mont le son

Language: French

Quick description: Girlybop

What came before? Luxembourg came back to the ESC last year after a 31-year absence. The EBU rewarded them for this (and also the fat wads of cash they bring) by giving them one of the best slots to celebrate it. This makes it all the more sour that Montenegro wasn’t offered anything of the sort this year, but I digress.

Best Luxembourgian result so far: Won 5 times (1961, 1965, 1972, 1973, 1983), came 3^rd twice (1962, 1986). They also came last 3 times (1958, 1960, 1970).

Qualification record: +1

Opinion: Once again the EBU gods have decided to grant Luxembourg a favourable running order, but it will also be (kind of) Luxembourg’s moment of truth now that the sheen of its return has waned off and they can’t ride the coattails of Israel support (last year’s contestant was Israeli). I like their entry. It’s a pastiche of French pop from the 1960s to the 1980s with a fresh coat of paint, and Laura Thorn can obviously sing well and has stage presence. The homage to their 1965 win will also not be lost on the enfranchised audience. It’s not very original though, and perhaps Luxembourg had been better served by sending their darker version of the song.

Snarky opinion: French JESC entry.

Prediction: Qualification, then right-hand side of the scoring table.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly predicted qualification but I did think it would do worse in the GF.

--. Germany

Entry: Abor & Tynna – Baller

Language: German

Quick description: German EDM

What came before? Germany's been on a long string of disappointing results with a kind of airy "throw things at the wall and see what sticks" vibe. Last year offered reprieve with an unexpected 12^th place.

Best German result so far: Won twice (1982 and 2010), 2^nd place 4 times (1980, 1981, 1985, 1987) and 3^rd place 5 times (1970, 1971, 1972, 1994, 1999). They also came last 9 times. For a country with its pedigree of participations, results have been very underwhelming since the early 1980s.

Opinion: ‘Baller’ is Germany’s first entry in German in 18 years and the 2^nd one in 5 years I actually really like, highlighting an ongoing trend of countries going back to their native language(s) to participate. It’s a fresh, youthful and current bit of EDM pop offering that also feels true to Germany’s home music scene. There are a few doubts about the main vocal (although it isn’t particularly demanding), but normally Germany should be able to follow through on its unexpected top 15 placement with Isaak last year. 

Snarky opinion: Scantily clad young lady destroying music instrument for no reason

Prediction: Top 15. I honestly think it should score even higher, but this is Germany we’re talking about so caution is advised.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I predicted bottom 10 but Germany surprised everyone, even with its weird staging and pretty mid song, by coming 12^th and picking up some jury love. So I’ve been wrong about Germany for two years in a row now.

14. Israel

Why are you ignoring Israel's entry? Israel is committing genocide in Gaza and to a lesser extent on the West Bank, is acquiring the trappings of an illiberal, fascist state, and even before that, it had already become a racist Apartheid nation. It’s an utter disgrace it is still allowed to participate in Eurovision. Continued silence among Europe’s leading political class is even worse and makes most European countries tacit accomplices in Israel’s genocide.

Okay, but it’s a song contest and it’s ostensibly a non-political event? Eurovision is probably the biggest political event of the year in Europe that swears it’s not political. Also, Russia was yeeted from the Contest in 2022 for its second invasion of Ukraine, and Belarus alongside it for good measure, even if Belarus has factually committed far less evil than Israel has.

Israel is participating though, so couldn’t you at least treat their entry like all the others? No. It seized its participation last year to engage in a worldwide campaign among reactionaries and right-wing ghouls to rake in as many televote points as it could (which is not illegal, but speaks volumes about the bad faith with which it is now in the ESC). Its broadcaster and delegation was known for constantly harassing and disparaging candidates from countries known to be critical of Israel (notably Ireland and Spain). To put the cherry on top of the shit cake, Joost Klein was disqualified for what seems to be a non-incident after the fact, while Israel only got the most milquetoast of slaps on the wrist for behaving much worse. While I have no proof, I think the incident to get Joost Klein disqualified was either also instigated or blown out of proportion by the Israeli delegation. Even with some new guardrails in place, I’m 99.9% sure Israel is going to try their manipulation and crybullying (= pretending you're the victim while you're actually the bully) tactics again.

Shouldn't you judge the song on its own merits, disregarding politics? Yuval Raphael has chosen to go, she wasn't forced. Even in unfree countries like Azerbaijan, most performers can still choose not to participate in ESC without dire consequences.

About that, why aren't you coming down on those countries? Most of them no longer participate. The only real sore point here is Azerbaijan’s invasion of Artsakh in 2024, but there are two major differences that are both geopolitical and human: Artsakh was never recognised by any government and its status was mostly the result of Armenia waging war on Azerbaijan in the 1990s. And second, no one died. Not to say that it wasn't ethnic cleansing (it was!), but I can't see how this stacks up to over 50,000 Gazan civilians killed in 1,5 years, many among them children.

Sure, but Israel's neighbours would like to basically do a Holocaust 2.0. They do. Does that justify murdering children, journalists and bombing humanitarian aid convoys, though? You could say bad dudes like the ayatollahs or Mohammad bin-Salman would happily do the same, but they're dictators. If we're going to compare like for like, Israel's government at least has some degree of popular legitimacy. That is why war crimes committed by ostensibly democratic governments are so much worse - their populations could choose not to vote these thugs into office, but they do. Even if you believe Israel has a right to exist (which isn't unreasonable if you think of what happened in World War II), the fact that Israel blithely ignores its UN-imposed 1947 borders, kills journalists, blocks and bombs humanitarian aid convoys as well as wantonly kills children should tell you we're dealing with a bad actor here.

Prediction: Booed throughout. Probably qualifying, but I don’t think the right-wing idiot support is going to turn out as strongly as it did last year, what with Israel’s genocide having become undeniable.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year? I correctly predicted Eden Golan would be booed throughout her entire performance, but I had no idea the EBU has been employing anti-booing technology since the mid-tens (first used to cover Russian entries). This adds another level to the shame and disgrace. It also does nothing for the performer, who can still clearly hear the whole arena’s hostility and vitriol. This really is North Korea-style censorship.

My man, why not just boycott the entire show? See my first blog post of this season.

15. Serbia

Entry: Princ – Mila

Language: Serbian

Quick description: Musical theatre ballad

What came before? Serbia won the Eurovision Song Contest on its first entry as an independent nation in 2007, with Marija Šerifović's 'Molitva'. Serbia tended to do pretty well after, usually qualifying for the final, with latter-day entries showing a really versatile and exciting side of Serbia's music scene. Serbia has one of the longest current qualification streaks.

Best Serbian result so far: Won once (2007), came 3^rd once (2012).

Qualification streak: +6

Opinion: After years of getting crap running order slots, the EBU decided to give a little gift to Serbia. And they’ll need it in a Semi already jam-packed with ballads. There are no doubts about Princ’s vocal abilities but he could be outstaged by more memorable entries if they bring better staging. All in all, this isn’t for me but I do believe there is an audience for this kind of rather schmalzy pathos.

Snarky opinion: Big burly musical theatre version of 'Molitva'.

Prediction: Qualifying, then ending mid-table.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly predicted qualification.

16. Finland

Entry: Erika Vikman – Ich komme

Language: English, German

Quick description: Horny EDM

What came before?  While often qualifying for the Grand Final, Finland usually strands there unceremoniously mid-table. Finland has tried out all manner of genres, artists and vibes, but seems to score best with rock and metal, which is unsurprising, since the country has the highest density of metal bands per 1,000 inhabitants.  

Best Finnish result so far: Won once (2006) with fondly-remembered monster rockers Lordi, who arguably ushered in the prelude to ESC's current Golden Age. Came 2^nd once, too, with the memorable Käärijä (2023).

Qualification streak: +4

Opinion: What better song to close the horniest ESC on its 69^th edition than this (“Ich komme” means “I’m cumming” in German)? It’s a spectacular, fun and high-energy entry that should do quite well if Erika can keep her vocal under control. In the UMK final it sounded a little shaky at the beginning. Some have pegged (pun unintended) it as a potential winner.

Snarky opinion: Conservatives’ Nordic nightmare.

Prediction: Qualifying and then top 5.

Shot at winning: 2% if it comes together live really well. It will get televote love for sure, but I’m uncertain about the jury.

How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly predicted qualification. 

So who's qualifying

I will revisit my predictions once I've seen some rehearsal and pre-party footage, but as it stands, I think this is the most likely list of qualifiers, in no particular order:

• Finland
• Greece
• Australia
• Malta
• Austria
• Latvia
• Lithuania
• Serbia
• Ireland
• Czechia

Eurovision Song Contest 2025: Semi-Final 1

I'll run down the countries in order of appearance. Like last year, the automatic finalists (the Big Five + last year's winner) also perform in the Semis to acquaint the public with their song and increase their chances of doing well. I find that argument a bit crummy because they already have a leg up by virtue of not having to qualify, but I doubt it will eventually move the needle much.

This is a very male-heavy Semi, which increases the odds for the female artists sprinkled throughout (not that I think Poland and Albania particularly need the help this year), as well as lots of party-friendly songs.

With each country, I'll also compare with my predictions of last year.

01. Iceland

Entry: Væb – Róa

Language: Icelandic

Quick description: Energetic sea shanty

What came before? Iceland has been more willing to experiment than other Scandinavian countries, sometimes to their detriment. They have generally been re-cast into a favourable spotlight with the general audience after - believe it or not - 2019's divisive but uncompromising Hattari and the calculated hipster awkwardness of Daði Freyr. They've since switched back to safer entries though. Also to their detriment, I might add, with now two consecutive NQs.

Best Icelandic result so far: Came 2^nd in 1999 and 2009.

Qualification streak: -2

Opinion: Væb exude a youthful, free spirit and are engaging with the ESC fandom very much, which has endeared them to it. That they’re opening Semi 1 is not a gift, but it doesn’t leave them without chances. I don’t think their entry will bore people, but if staged badly, it will come off as amateuristic and might confirm some casuals who don’t enjoy the ESC that the Contest is still an expensive, campy show with sub-par, weird acts.

Snarky opinion: Iceland said: “Let the kids fail this time”

Prediction: Borderline qualifier.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year: Spot-on. Hera Björk came last in her semi with only a measly 3 points.  

02. Poland

Entry: Justyne Steczkowska – GAJA

Language: Polish, English, Old Slavonic

Quick description: Bombastic summoning of the Earth goddess at its finest

What came before? Poland has had a bit of a jobber image for the past 15 years at the contest, with entries all over the place, but rarely ending up in a good place. Population-wise, it’s the biggest country never to have won the ESC.

Best Polish result so far: 2^nd place in 1994, on their very first participation.

Qualification streak: -1

Opinion: If you like ESC camp and bombast, this is your entry to latch onto. But it’s more than that: it showcases Steczkowska’s powerful vocals, stage presence, fitness (it’s really hard to believe this woman is 52 years old!) and sense of drama. Its atmosphere reminds me a little of ‘Wild Dances’ but more grown-up. I do think the “mum dancing” bits of the national final performance should be binned though.

Snarky opinion: Every ESC cliché balled into one package.

Prediction: While the EBU did Poland dirty by giving it the infamous death slot (and after Steczkowska, who already competed in 1995, had to go first back then!), I don’t see why it shouldn’t qualify.

Shot at winning: 5%. I don’t understand how this entry doesn’t come up more in discussions about potential winners in what looks to be a very open year.

How bad was my prediction last year: While initially on the fence, I eventually concluded Poland would likely not qualify and I was right. And already mediocre entry wasn’t helped by typical TVP “overstaging” and a pretty brittle vocal.

03. Slovenia

Entry: Klemen – How much time do we have left?

Language: English

Quick description: Ballad about a kid with cancer – as one does

What came before? Slovenia's record is a pretty bleak one. They don't carry the best image to ESC, and frankly never did. The fandom desperately wants them to do well.

Best Slovenian result so far: 7^th two times (1995, 2001).

Qualification streak: +2

Opinion: Casuals will never be able to guess that Klemen is actually a comedian in his home country. While it luckily does come off as a genuine entry about his wife being diagnosed with cancer, in the back of my head, tackling incredibly serious topics mostly lived by someone else (I’m looking at you, Hungary 2014, with your song about incest) can’t help but feel a little exploitative and tear-jerky. As far as ballads go, it’s not a bad one and Klemen’s a good-looking guy, but this Semi is already overrun with good-looking men.

Snarky opinion: Ballad for sentimental wine mums.

Prediction: Not qualifying. What small chances it had were murdered by its running order. Slovenia also has a pretty bad record at staging.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year: Almost completely correct, though Raiven’s GF result was slightly worse than I had anticipated.

04. Estonia

Entry: Tommy Cash

Language: Italian, English, Spanish

Quick description: Pastiche of Italian ditties

What came before? Barring a dry spell between 2004 and 2008, Estonia has been a pretty reliable performer at Eurovision, often breaking into the top 10 but just as often floundering in the Grand Finals.

Best Estonian result so far: Won in 2002, 3^rd in 2003.

Qualification streak: +3

Opinion: Tommy Cash is probably the most well-known Estonian musician in Europe (and is also friends with previous alumni Joost Klein and Käärijä) and while ‘Espresso macchiato’ is amusing, Cash will really need to up the ante staging-wise to make good on his claim that he’s going for Estonia’s 2^nd win, because the national finals performance felt sloppy and a little arrogant. The song itself to me thinks it’s funnier than it really is and the weird Italian/Spanish mixed phrases may come off as ignorant or borderline racist to either country.

Snarky opinion: Bad parody of Italian music

Prediction: Qualifying

Shot at winning: 1% because it’s a very competitive year.

How bad was my prediction last year: I was wrong. After some dithering I thought 5minuust & Puulluup wouldn’t qualify, but they did and by a decent margin.

--. Spain

Entry: Melody – ESA DIVA

Language: Spanish

Quick description: Spanish, well, diva song

What came before? After almost 20 years of languishing in the desert of near-bottom and bottom-tier entries, Spain surprisingly reinvented itself in 2022, then immediately went downhill again.

Best Spanish result so far: Won twice (1968, 1969), came 2^nd 4 times (1971, 1973, 1979, 1995) and came 3^rd twice (1984, 2022).

Opinion: Bland, run-off-the-mill Spanish pop affair. Melody does have some charisma and the entry’s revamp made it a little more competitive, but I wonder who the audience for this track is. Last year’s entry also felt dated but at least it had a message. I also hope Melody doesn’t repeat her “helicopter hair” stunt from Benidorm Fest, only to then ridiculously claim it’s a “Spanish culture” thing after facing mockery for it. This gimmick could have gotten Spain some votes back in the early aughts, but now I think not so much.

Snarky opinion: Time machine to the summer of 2002.

Prediction: Bottom 10

Shot at winning: 0%

How wrong was I last year? I predicted bottom 10 for Spain last year, too, and I was completely correct.

05. Ukraine

Entry: Ziferblat – Bird of pray

Language: Ukrainian, English

Quick description: 60s prog rock

What came before? Ukraine is a Eurovision superpower on par with Sweden and Italy. Its image looms large with even the casual Eurovision viewer, discounting the terrible war the country finds itself in. Ukraine is a country that seems to understand the modern Festival at its core. Since entering the contest in 2003, they have never not qualified for the Grand Final.

Best Ukrainian result so far: Won 3 times (2004, 2016, 2022), came 2^nd twice (2007, 2008) and 3^rd twice (2013, 2024).

Qualification streak: +14 (barring two wins)

Opinion: Discounting the awkward wordplay of the title, I personally like the power, artistry and complexity of this entry. Ziferblat oozes charisma and the song manages to command attention throughout its entire run. It is a more divisive entry than usual though: some people seem to find it too loud and disjointed, but I think that’s on them.

Snarky opinion: How many songs can you keep crafting about war?

Prediction: Qualifying, then left hand of the scoreboard.

Shot at winning: 1%.

How bad was my prediction last year: Pretty good but underestimated a little. I gave them 2% chance to win and they came 3^rd.

06. Sweden

Entry: KAJ – Bara bada bastu

Language: Swedish

Quick description: Swedish schlager about going to the sauna

What came before? Since 2011, Sweden has replaced Ireland as the country to beat. They now occupy a joint 1^st place in the all-time rankings since their 7^th win last year, and also equal Ireland for the record of the same artist winning the Contest twice.

Best Swedish result so far: Won 7 times (1974, 1984, 1991, 1999, 2012, 2015, 2023), came 2^nd once (1966) and 3^rd 6 times (1983, 1985, 1995, 1996, 2011 and 2014).

Qualification streak: +10 (barring three wins)

Opinion: This is an instantly fun offering free of any pretense or the usual, calculated Swedish pop perfection and a refreshing change of pace (although its eventual win in Melodifestivalen was a shock that didn’t go down well with some other contestants). There is heartfelt joy in this entry, as well as a nice representation of Nordic culture. Doubly fun that it took Swedish-speaking Finns for Sweden to finally send another entry in their native language.

Snarky opinion: Swedish carnival music.

Prediction: Top 5.

Shot at winning: 5%. This one has a decent chance of winning the televote. I think the bookies are overestimating its chances a little overall, but I’m not discounting it being a potential winner.

How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly predicted Marcus & Martinus would qualify.

07. Portugal

Entry: NAPA - Deslocado

Language: Portuguese

Quick description: Portuguese indie

What came before? Portugul is still riding the ripples of their win in 2017 but later entries seem to have fallen back into the fold of middling results.

Best Portuguese result so far: Won once (2017). Portugal also came last 4 times, though (1964, 1974, 1997 and 2018).

Qualification record: +4

Opinion: One of the few entries that looks dead on arrival. Everything is beige about this: the vocals, the music, even the stage outfits. Unless they dramatically change the staging, I don’t see this snoozefest going anywhere. It isn’t a bad song per se, just very forgettable. And yes, for the Flemings reading this, the singer really looks a lot like Jelle De Beule (João Debulo?).

Snarky opinion: ‘Beige’, the song.

Prediction: Not qualifying.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year: I correctly predicted Portugal would qualify.

08. Norway

Entry: Kyle Alessandro – Lighter

Language: English

Quick description: Scandi powerpop

What came before? They may not like to hear it, but Norway is kind of Sweden's eccentric little brother. Barring 2016, they've made every final since 2013, but before that lies a record littered with very, very mixed results. Still, they are known as a competent and quirky country. Their current +7 qualification record is one of the strongest in the Contest.

Best Norwegian result so far: Won 3 times (1985, 1995, 2009). They also came dead last a staggering 12 times, which is still the ESC record.

Qualification streak: +7

Opinion: It’s almost a miracle we got this out of a very weak preselection. The song itself is a little generic, up to and including its dance break, which has become a real thing in the past few years, but it is saved by a charismatic performer with stage chops and the inclusion of some folk instrumentation.

Snarky opinion: An Alexander Rybak for the TikTok age.

Prediction: Qualifying, then ending up halfway.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I did correctly predict qualification but thought Gåte would at least reach mid-table – they came last instead. After the undeserved last place of Germany’s Lord of the Lost in 2023, it really proved neither jury or public can appreciate well-crafted metal music (unless you give it a ‘70s or ‘80s twist), which is a God-damn shame.

09. Belgium

Entry: Red Sebastian – Strobe lights

Language: English

Quick description: Rave

What came before? Disclaimer - I am Belgian. Anyway, Belgium's recent ESC history has been spotty, which isn't helped by the annual switch between Flemish and Walloon broadcasters selecting an entry. Still, there is a kooky legacy image with Telex, Pas de Deux and Urban Trad, who proudly continued Belgium's tradition of surrealism writ large.

Best Belgian result so far: Won in 1986, came 2^nd in 2003, but also came last 8 times.

Qualification streak: -1

Opinion: This is a solid offering with a strong vocal that also fronts actual Belgian culture with this type of rave/techno music. Unfortunately, it’s done dirty by its running order spot and faces brutal competition in its Semi from entries occupying or overlapping similar spaces (the vocal, the genre, the bombast). It probably helps a little that the Netherlands are in the same Semi, but Red Sebastian will need to bring his A game in staging, something both Belgian broadcasters have traditionally not been incredible at. That, or hoping Cyprus’s entry will helplessly flounder.

Snarky opinion: Dead Sebastian?

Prediction: Qualifying but not by much. I need to believe.

Shot at winning: 0%. That the bookies had this at the #1 spot at the beginning of the season was a freak anomaly.

How bad was my prediction last year? I was completely wrong. While I did think chances of qualification for Mustii were growing dimmer and dimmer as the Semi approached, he unfortunately gave one of his Semi’s worst performances.

--. Italy

Entry: Lucio Corsi – Voleve essere un duro

Language: Italian

Quick description: Classic rock ballad

What came before? After re-entering Eurovision in 2011, Italy definitively buried the notion the Big Four (henceforth Five) don't perform well because people don't like them. They were just bad, and Italy called them out on it. With 12 out of 14 entries reaching the top 10 since their re-entry, Italy stand as one of the current-day Eurovision superpowers.

Best Italian result so far: Won 3 times (1964, 1990 and 2021), 2^nd place 3 times (1974, 2011, 2019) and 3^rd place 5 times (1958, 1963, 1975, 1987, 2015). 1958's third-placed 'Nel blu, dipinto di blu' is apparently also the world's most-covered song.

Opinion: This song is not for me. While not as forgettable as Portugal’s, Lucio’s distinct appearance makes it seem like he’s about to seriously rock out, only to deliver a kind of lullaby. Last year, I bitterly complained that there is a Eurovision cohort that would vote for Italy even if they sent a trashcan singing in Italian, so I wonder if this will save it from oblivion. I’m not saying this is a bad song, it’s just tepid, conservative fare we’ve heard dozens of times before.

Snarky opinion: Elton John Eltonio Gianni

Prediction: Could be Italy’s first right-hand scoreboard result in a long time.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year? Pretty decent, I even gave Angelina Mango a chance at winning, but she ended up 7^th.

10. Azerbaijan

Entry: Mamagama - Run with u

Language: English

Quick description: Oriental electropop

What came before? Azerbaijan used to send smart entries that are in tune with Eurovision's mood and temperature (although there have been credible allegations of cheating in their heyday). They have hit a bit of a snag recently. 

Best Azeri result so far: Won once (2011), came 2^nd once (2013) and came 3^rd  once (2009).

Qualification streak: -2

Opinion: It’s a nice entry, even if it pretty obviously rips off Daft Punk’s ‘Lucky’, with an upbeat energy and a nice sprinkle of traditional snares. A lot will depend on how it’s staged and since the Azeris are usually cagey with their live performances and stage ideas, we’ll have to wait and see until the last moment.

Snarky opinion: Draft Punk.

Prediction: I’m on the fence about this one, especially considering I’ve been wrong about Azerbaijan for two years in a row (predicted qualification both times).

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: Thought they would qualify (but not by much), but it was a very clear NQ.

11. San Marino

Entry: Gabry Ponte – Tutta l’Italia

Language: Italian

Quick description: Italian tarantella bop

What came before? I'm convinced San Marino's participations are a ploy by the microstate's Office of Tourism. With only 3 qualifications out of 14 performances and three last places in these NQs, things don't look very encouraging, unfortunately.

Best Sammarinese result so far: 19^th in 2019. Yeah.

Qualification streak: -3

Opinion: This is an incredibly infectious and unpretentious bop brought to you by one of the minds behind Eiffel 65’s ‘Blue’. It was this year’s theme song of the San Remo festival and it’s already popular in Italy – Italy can also vote in this Semi. But will it be enough? San Marino never enjoys any favours from the audience at large, and it could be that a DJ taking centre stage while some anon sings the words next to it are too unattractive to kill even a super cute offering like this.

Snarky opinion: “For the love of God Italy, finally give your little brother some points!”

Prediction: Qualifying. 

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I thought Megara would just manage to scrape by, but they weren’t even close to qualifying.

12. Albania

Entry: Shkodra Elektronike – Zjerm

Language: Albanian

Quick description: Balkan indietronica

What came before? While Eurovision's enfranchised audience has embraced Albania as one of those countries that offer entries truer to their native culture, this has never translated into good results, with a pretty spotty qualification record. Albania tends to be along for the ride, do the minimum to qualify and that's it.

Best Albanian result so far: 5^th in 2012.

Qualification streak: -1

Opinion: This is a unique entry that tries to do something different for a change – a very modern indietronica composition with some ethnic elements and a frontwoman who for once isn’t a voluptuous, dramatic belter. It will not be to everyone’s taste, but it has a very distinct identity that makes it stand out. Plus, finally Albania’s been given a decent running order after a few pretty dreary years.

Snarky opinion: -

Prediction: Qualifying.

Shot at winning: 1% if all the stars miraculously align, but chances are incredibly small.

How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly predicted they wouldn’t qualify.

13. The Netherlands

Entry: Claude - C'est la vie

Language: French, English

Quick description: Mid-tempo modern pop

What came before? The Netherlands have comfortably nested themselves into the top and sub-top spaces in the past 10 years, and are now experiencing a second ESC Golden Age after the 1970s. Last year’s disqualification of Joost Klein on the eve of the Grand Final was a shocking disgrace to the EBU, considering all the shit that Israel pulled that very same year. I hope they can catch a break this year after two consecutive years of drama with their delegation.

Best Dutch result so far: Won 5 times (1957, 1959, 1969, 1975 and 2019) and came 2^nd  once (2014) as well as 3^rd once (1974). Duncan Lawrence is the only ESC winner to have held the title for two consecutive years, even on a technicality, but it would be unfair to say that's the only reason he's ascended to the Eurovision pantheon. The Netherlands are also the only country ever to get disqualified while the contest was ongoing (2024).

Qualification streak: +1

Opinion: I understand why this one appeals to many people, but I’m not a fan. It’s a well-composed song but it rips off Stromae a bit too closely for comfort (which France attempted unsuccessfully already) in styling and its official video. The French parts of Claude’s lyrics sound cliché and trite, and the man has an odd Dutch twang in his French (although presumably it is one of his mother languages?). I realise all of the above could only ever be the opinion of someone from Belgium and most viewers will look past this and just enjoy it.

Snarky opinion: “But we have Stromae at home”.

Prediction: Qualifying, then top 10 or even top 5.

Shot at winning: 1%, not counting it out if its momentum keeps rising and others fail.

How bad was my prediction last year: I did predict qualification, but could never have been predicted the chaos that would follow. There are people who think Joost would have won the contest last year, but I don’t think so at all. His performance, while high-energy, was a bit sloppy and at times he was visibly out of breath. The juries would have sunk this.

14. Croatia

Entry: Marko Bošnjak – Poison cake

Language: English

Quick description: Dark comedic musical theatre

What came before? Croatia has had middling ESC results at best in the past 15 years, with its sole standout last year, where Baby Lasagne came 2^nd.

Best Croatian result so far: 2^nd place in 2024.

Qualification streak: +2

Opinion: I think there are lots of interesting ideas here and the song certainly commands attention, but the execution is going to be very difficult to get right. Some have compared it to last year’s ‘Doomsday Blue’ but that song was more clever and almost through-composed, whereas here it feels more like separate ideas are thrown on top of each other and then repeated. If this goes badly, especially with the screams at the end, it has the potential to become memorable for all the wrong reasons and end up unintentionally funny.

Snarky opinion: What if JESC allowed an entry about killing someone?

Prediction: Unless the staging and execution is top notch, this won’t qualify.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: Correct. I gave Baby Lasagne a 20% to win it and he came 2^nd.

--. Switzerland

Entry: Zoë Më – Voyage

Language: French

Quick description: Purestrain ballad

What came before? Switzerland has been ascendant in the ESC in the past decade, barring the occasional blip.

Best Swiss result so far: Won three times (1956, 1988, 2024), came 2^nd three times (1958, 1963, 1968) and came 3^rd 4 times (1961, 1982, 1993 and 2021). Switzerland also came last 5 times and was the first country to score 'nul points' in a Semi-Final with the now infamous Piero & The Music Stars' awful vocals, the lead vocalist slapping himself in the face with his microphone and his screechy, sinister laugh near the end.

Qualification streak: +5

Opinion: A typical host entry that doesn’t have a lot of ambition. It’s a sweet and endearing song, but that’s about it. I also find it a bit dodgy the hosts gave themselves such a great spot in the running order, but it’s not disallowed, I guess.

Snarky opinion: “Let’s make sure we don’t accidentally win again.”

Prediction: Bottom 10.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: Like Croatia, I gave the Swiss a 20% chance of winning, and they won.

15. Cyprus

Entry: Theo Evan – Shh

Language: English

Quick description: Eurodance

What came before? Many people are aware Cyprus would really like to win the ESC one day. Since their 2^nd place in 2018, they've mostly been churning out vaguely Mediterranean pop bops, but with somewhat diminishing returns.

Best Cypriot result so far: 2^nd in 2018. Cyprus holds the record for most performances without a single win - standing at 41 years now.

Qualification streak: +2

Opinion: Production-wise, I think this offering is Cyprus’s strongest in a few years. It’s getting a massive boon by dint of being last in the running order and so after Belgium’s, which puts it into a better position vis à vis that entry. It also hired Sergio Jaen (the stage director of last year’s ‘Doomsday Blue’) to do the staging, so there are great expectations, but it will all hinge on Theo’s live vocal and performance.

Snarky opinion: AI-generated top 10 junk.

Prediction: As it stands I think this is qualifying even when the vocal won’t be superb due to its slot in the running order and the staging.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year: I correctly predicted Silia Kapsis would qualify, although a lot of other analysts had serious doubts.

So who's qualifying?

I will revisit my predictions once I've seen some rehearsal and pre-party footage, but as it stands, I think this is the most likely list of qualifiers, in no particular order:

• Ukraine
• Sweden
• Poland
• Albania
• San Marino
• The Netherlands
• Norway
• Estonia
• Belgium
• Cyprus