Semi-Final 2
I'll run down the countries in order of appearance. This year, the automatic finalists (the Big Five + last year's winner) also perform in the Semis to acquaint the public with their song and increase their chances of doing well. I find that argument a bit crummy because they already have a leg up by virtue of not having to qualify, but I doubt it will eventually move the needle much.
With each country, I'll also compare with my predictions of last year. Should be fun.
Final note: these previews and reviews come before the pre-parties and rehearsals. A lot can change between those.
Is this the Semi of Death?
Yes, I think it is. It's also the Semi where we leave one more country behind due to the uneven number of participants.
01. Malta
Entry: Sarah Bonnici - Loop
Language: English
Quick description: Girlybop
What came before? Malta's recent record is quite spotty. They have a faint echo of the United Kingdom and Ireland's latter-day troubles in often trying to engineer a winning entry but then falling quite short, though their results are not as abysmal as those of the British and the Irish. Around the early aughts there was buzz Malta was overdue for a win, but that noise has faded, even with a brief blip for Destiny's 2021 entry, that failed to produce an expected good result.
Best Maltese result so far: Came 2nd twice (2002, 2005), and 3rd twice (1992, 1998) as well.
Qualification streak: -2
Opinion: It's alright. It's a radio-friendly bop that doesn't wear out its welcome, and indications are Malta will try to go for a memorable dance break to spice it all up, but that hasn't saved them in the past, and given how stacked the competition is, it will have to do exceedingly well (or hope similar entries will flame out). I'm afraid that Malta is once again trying to engineer its way to success instead of sending an entry they genuinely believe in.
Snarky opinion: Run-of-the-mill semi-camp affair
Prediction: Not qualifying
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: I predicted The Busker to barely qualify but they came dead last in their semi. They probably weren't helped by getting put into the infamous 'death slot' (position 2 in the running order).
02. Albania
Entry: Besa - Titan
Language: English
Quick description: Dramatic Balkan pop
What came before? While Eurovision's enfranchised audience has embraced Albania as one of those countries that offer entries truer to their native culture, this has never translated into good results, with a pretty spotty qualification record. Albania tends to be along for the ride, do the minimum to qualify and that's it.
Best Albanian result so far: 5th in 2012.
Qualification streak: +1
Opinion: With Turkey, Montenegro and North Macedonia gone from the ESC, Albania comfortably nestled itself into that "Balkan pop" space years ago, and this offering is no different. At this point it's become a stereotype of its own: a voluptuous Albanian lady belting out dramatic lyrics to a vaguely ethnic pop beat. I'm not saying this track is bad, but it's quite uninspired, and the decision to overhaul it to English instead of keeping the original Albanian makes it worse. In a standout year like this one, 'Titan' is a serious contender for not qualifying at all.
Snarky opnion: An AI-generated Albanian entry composed of what an ESC hivemind thinks Albanian music is.
Prediction: Not or barely qualifying. Being in the dreaded 'death slot' doesn't help either.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: I predicted Albania to qualify and it did. I did give them a glimmer of a chance to end up right at the top, but even that was too much.
03. Greece
Entry: Marina Satti - Zari
Language: Greek
Quick description: Hybrid and very eclectic post-pop.
What came before? Greece's latter-day performances have been pretty inconsistent. The wave they rode on from 2001 to 2013 (barring some darker spots) seems to have abated, with the country relegated to middling status.
Best Greek result so far: Won in 2005. Came third 3 times (2001, 2004 and 2008).
Qualification streak: -1
Opinion: The fandom loves the unhinged music video to 'Zari', which injects an already pretty insane and uncompromising affair with a sense of Internet brutalism while exuding Greekness from all its pores. Even after more than a month, I'm still not sure whether I actually like this song, but it's a brave choice with a definite artistic vision behind it. The million euro question is how Marina Satti and her team are going to translate this to the stage. But I give an experienced peformer like Satti the benefit of doubt.
Snarky opinion: The soundtrack to hangover diarrhoea in a shoddy hotel in Olympia.
Prediction: Qualifying. Many people will not like this, but those who will, will love it. The staging needs to nail it though, and Greece's track record in this is all over the place.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: I was completely wrong. I maintain 'What they say' was still a well-crafted entry with heart, but it was completely let down by its non-existent, cheap-looking staging, poor Victor's terrible boy scout outfit and his at times half-frightened stage presence. That's no dig on Victor: he was very young. This one is totally on the Greek delegation. Still - I was dead wrong.
04. Switzerland
Entry: Nemo - The Code
Language: English
Quick description: Opera, rap, musical theatre and drum 'n bass hodgepodge
What came before? Switzerland's recent entries have had mixed results to say the least, in part because of the engineering problem I pointed out earlier for other countries. However, their qualification record is starting to look quite good, so maybe they are on to something.
Best Swiss result so far: Won twice (1956, 1988), came 2nd three times (1958, 1963, 1968) and came 3rd 4 times (1961, 1982, 1993 and 2021). Switzerland also came last 5 times and was the first country to score 'nul points' in a Semi-Final with the now infamous Piero & The Music Stars' awful vocals, the lead vocalist slapping himself in the face with his microphone and his screechy, sinister laugh near the end.
Qualification streak: +4
Opinion: If you look at 'Quick description', you know this shouldn't work, but it does. Immaculately produced and vocally a very challenging track that is bound to hoover up jury points like it's no one's business. Its three-minute run time feels like it lasts much longer, and in a good way. Staging is usually not a problem for the Swiss, so the only thing to look for is the quality of the live vocal. If this comes together, this entry could really go places.
Snarky opinion: Let's try everything in just one track.
Prediction: Qualifying.
Shot at winning: 20%
How bad was my prediction last year: I was completely on the money (qualifying, then ending up bottom tier).
05. Czechia
Entry: Aiko - Pedestal
Language: English
Quick description: Feminist rock anthem
What came before? Czechia has yet to make any real impact on Eurovision, having only participated since 2007. Some of its entries have received modest hype, and the trendline in the past 8 years looks mostly positive.
Best Czech result so far: 6th place in 2018.
Qualification streak: +2
Opinion: A decent rock banger that has taken some flak because of its messy, shouty national finals performance (but honestly the Czech national finals are just as bad as the Irish ones, it's not the performers' fault). I also wonder if a song about self-love might really connect to the audience at large. Czechia did a feminism last year as well, but that message I felt resonated more because of its appeal to togetherness. 'Pedestal' also isn't helped by the presence of Megara in this semi, whose offering looks more fun.
Snarky opinion: pink.cz
Prediction: Not qualifying
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: Spot on. I said they'd qualify and then come top 10. They ended up 10th.
--. France
Entry: Slimane - Mon amour
Language: French
Quick description: Ballad
What came before? While results have largely been underwhelming for France in the past 20 years, the country still holds a lot of distinction because of its apparent refusal to bend to trends (even if this isn't really true). Like Spain, the United Kingdom and Germany, France has mostly been in a big funk, barring 2021's second place.
Best French result so far: Won 5 times (1958, 1960, 1962, 1969, 1977), came 2nd 5 times (1957, 1976, 1990, 1991 and 2021) and came 3rd 7 times (1959, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1978, 1980 and 1981).
Opinion: How history repeats. I can almost-copy what I said last year: "While the enfranchised audience seems to enjoy France's entries a lot, barring 2022, none of them performed well in the Grand Final. Perhaps France is one of those countries trapped in the unenviable position of having to perform what the public at large expects of them, while that same public generally doesn't really like their performances, excepting Barbara Pravi's 2021 entry, which lost out only because Italy was even better at this." The guys at Overthinking Eurovision suggest that 'Mon amour' is not France's attempt at winning, but its attempt to get more people in France to watch the ESC. At any rate, I think it's a lovely ballad with a really good performer and I think it'll do better than last year. Actual dark horse? Maaaybe.
Snarky opinion: Cliché ballad in a cliché mirror vest
Prediction: Top 15
Shot at winning: 1%
How bad was my prediction last year: Some had France down as a dark horse, but I never believed the hype and I was correct.
06. Austria
Entry: Kaleen - We will rave
Language: English
Quick description: 90s eurodance homage
What came before? Austria has historically always been a bit of a jobber, with a small glory period between 2014 and 2018.
Best Austrian result so far: Won twice (1966 and 2014), came 3rd once (2018). Also came last 7 times, but the last time that happened was in 1991.
Qualification streak: +1
Opinion: Out-and-out dance tracks have historically suffered from spotty vocal performances at the Contest, and while this track isn't vocally very challenging, it remains a question what it will be like live. Having said that, this is a nice love letter to 90s eurodance, with hints of Milk Inc. and even the Prodigy. As Kaleen is a dancer by profession, at least the choreo should be impressive. Judged on its own merits, I feel it does exceed its runtime a little, so that choreo better be good.
Snarky opinion: Nostalgia bait for Gen X'ers and elder Millennials.
Prediction: Could qualify, but people are going to compare Austria and Denmark since they sit so close together in the running order and operate in the same territory. I feel Saba has the advantage here, no matter what the fandom thinks.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: I predicted Teya & Salena not to qualify, but they did. Their end result was much less than the fandom had hoped for, though. I'll concede that I was wrong in gauging the appeal of the track because I personally didn't like it much (I thought it wasn't as clever or witty as they thought it was) and that it's their staging plus opening the Grand Final that killed it.
07. Denmark
Entry: Saba - Sand
Language: English
Quick description: Scandi mid-tempo house
What came before? Denmark has generally been on a downward trend since winning the ESC for the last time in 2013.
Best Danish result so far: Won twice (2000, 2013), came 2nd once (2001) and came 3rd two times (1988, 1989).
Qualification streak: -3
Opinion: Yes, the lyrics are kind of trite, but I like the overall composition of this song, the vocal sounds strong and the performer has some live stage presence. 'Sand' is an offering that would have shot to the top of the odds 10 years ago, but in a packed Contest like 2024, it may not stand out, and there are worries about potentially static staging. That the track liberally borrows from Loreen's signature style and sound is secondary.
Snarky opinion: How to rip-off Loreen while totally not ripping off Loreen.
Prediction: Barely qualifying
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: I was right to predict Denmark's unfortunate third non-qualification in a row, though admittedly their performance was even worse than I had expected.
08. Armenia
Entry: Ladaniva - Jako
Language: Armenian
Quick description: Armenian folk party
What came before? With three exceptions, ever since Armenia's first participation in 2006, they've qualified for every Grand Final. While Rosa Linn only came 20th in 2022's Grand Final, her song exploded all over the world through TikTok later.
Best Armenian result so far: 4th in 2008 and 2014.
Qualification streak: +2
Opinion: Limiting itself to under 2'30", this jaunty tune is shamelessly courting response from the live audience, and I think it will work. The French-Armenian duo's singer oozes a guileless charisma that can't be faked, and the joyfulness of it all is incredibly infectious. Its also an indelible earwurm of a tune.
Snarky opinion: -
Prediction: Qualifying, the ending up top 15.
Shot at winning: 1%, if only because there's nothing like it at ESC24.
How bad was my prediction last year: I correctly predicted qualification, though I overestimated Armenia's end result by a little.
09. Latvia
Entry: Dons - Hollow
Language: English
Quick description: Blues rock
What came before? Latvia failed to qualify for the final for the 6 preceding years, and discounting 2015-2016, for another 5. Despite winning the Contest back in 2002, they now share the space with a couple of other countries with the label "unpredictable and possibly weird", often enjoyed by the in-crowd but less favoured by the general public.
Best Latvian result so far: Won once (2002), came 3rd on their first participation in 2000 (which may have set the tone for "lovably quirky").
Qualification streak: -6
Opinion: I think this is a strong song - moody, textured and with content that feels alt-rocky. In any season of the past 15 years, it would've been a shoe-in for qualifications, especially with juries still voting in the Semis, but this one will have a tough time of it.
Snarky opinion: Generic sad boy ballad
Prediction: I'd love for it to qualify, but I'm afraid it will, but if the entries around it feel weak, Dons definitely has a chance.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: Pretty bad. I thought they had a "solid chance" at qualifying and even gave them a 2% at winning. It was all wishful thinking.
--. Spain
Entry: Nebulossa - Zorra
Language: Spanish
Quick description: 1970s feminist disco
What came before? After almost 20 years of languishing in the desert of near-bottom and bottom-tier entries, Spain surprisingly reinvented itself in 2022.
Best Spanish result so far: Won twice (1968, 1969), came 2nd 4 times (1971, 1973, 1979, 1995) and came 3rd twice (1984, 2022).
Opinion: This one isn't for me. I know the sound design and production is deliberately dated and I appreciate the message about how women can be considered "bitches" no matter what they do, but to me this feels like an entry for the in-crowd, not something the public at large will turn out for.
Snarky opinion: Real Housewives of Madrid
Prediction: Bottom 10
Shot at winning: 0%
How wrong was I last year? Dead wrong. I thought Blanca Paloma even had a shot at winning on account of her artistry, but in the end neither the juries nor the public seemed to enjoy it much, perhaps on account of it being really intense. It was still so nice to see Spain continue the new trend of not sending some sappy, dull ballad, though.
10. San Marino
Entry: Megara - 11:11
Language: Spanish
Quick description: Vengeful butt rock
What came before? I'm convinced San Marino's participations are a ploy by the microstate's Office of Tourism. With only 3 qualifications out of 13 performances, things don't look very encouraging, unfortunately. 2023 was a new low with getting 0 points out of the Semi together with another country.
Best Sammarinese result so far: 19th in 2019. Yeah.
Qualification streak: -2
Opinion: It's a bit messy but it works as a very colourful track that commands attention. Czechia's entry (which operates in similar territory) fumbling the bag is not unlikely, but it's also not enough for '11:11' to push through. San Marino has to lend their entry artistry and strength to stand out and make it memorable.
Snarky opinion: -
Prediction: Qualifying, but barely.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: I correctly predicted they would not qualify. Ought to have picked (or Piqued) lyrics that sounded less rapey and also a staging where the front man at one point did not sound like he was getting vivisected.
11. Georgia
Entry: Nutsa Buzaladze - Firefrighter
Language: English
Quick description: R&B-inspired girly bop
What came before? If anything, Georgia tends to swing for the fences uncompromisingly (avant-garde house, angsty art rock, angry warrior songs, political disco, circus cabaret - basically Georgia has served up the entire traditional back catalogue of ESC in one speed run!). That deserves accolades, but the general audience hasn't been buying it.
Best Georgian result so far: 9th twice (2010, 2011).
Opinion: Like Germany and Slovenia, I feel that Georgia's terrible reputation has become its own millstone. However undeserved that reputation I feel is and I think history will be far kinder to Georgia. 'Firefighter' is widely predicted to qualify but I honestly think it's a very generic pop song that will need Nutsa to pull out all the stops to enhance on stage. In most other years, I agree this would have been an easy qualifier, but not this year.
Snarky opinion: After everything else failed, it's back to generic pop.
Prediction: Qualifying
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year? I was wrong to think Iru would qualify. Though I agree they got unlucky, it has to be said that Georgia remained very stubborn not to change anything about its entry after some legitimate criticism (e.g. on the nonsensical lyrics) and their staging was an enormous downgrade from the original video clip. Let's hope they don't make the same mistake again.
12. Belgium
Entry: Mustii - Before the Party's Over
Language: English
Quick description: Mature artsy pop
What came before? Disclaimer - I am Belgian. Anyway, Belgium's recent ESC history has been spotty, which isn't helped by the annual switch between Flemish and Walloon broadcasters selecting an entry. Still, there is a kooky legacy image with Telex, Pas de Deux and Urban Trad, who proudly continued Belgium's tradition of surrealism writ large.
Best Belgian result so far: Won in 1986, came 2nd in 2003, but also came last 8 times.
Qualification streak: +3
Opinion: I think this is a finely-crafted track with a performer unlikely to falter on the big stage. It helps that there isn't much like it in this Semi (except Switzerland, who has the arguably better entry of the two), and it Mustii can keep this oozing both quality and raw emotion, there is a path for this track.
Snarky opinion: -
Prediction: Qualifying
Shot at winning: 2% - some betting sites have this one as high as 7% but I think that's undeserved.
How bad was my prediction last year? I did think Gustaph was going to qualify, but I had never in my wildest dreams expected top 10. The man gave a master class in how to do everything he could to elevate what was a pretty basic house track.
13. Estonia
Entry: 5miinust & Puuluup - (Nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi
Language: Estonian
Quick description: Folk buttrock
What came before? Barring a dry spell between 2004 and 2008, Estonia has been a pretty reliable performer at Eurovision, often breaking into the top 10 but just as often floundering in the Grand Finals.
Best Estonian result so far: Won in 2002, 3rd in 2003.
Qualification streak: +2
Opinion: It's easy to see why the fandom has mostly embraced this track - it's wild, it's completely in Estonian and carries an interesting topic (i.e. drugs are only truly a crime if you're poor). Both 5miinust and Puuluup are big in Estonia, and their infectious energy is palpable. They will try to bring the party, but will likely need to be backed by smart staging and camera work to not make it look too chaotic.
Snarky opinion: What if the Blues Brothers also did drugs?
Prediction: Qualifying
Shot at winning: 1%, which is much more than the bookies think, but there's a universe I could see it happen.
How bad was my prediction last year: Not too bad, I predicted qualification but underestimated Alika's Grand Final performance.
--. Italy
Entry: Angelina Mango - La noia
Language: Italian
Quick description: Fusion bop
What came before? After re-entering Eurovision in 2011, Italy definitively buried the notion the Big Four (henceforth Five) don't perform well because people don't like them. They were just bad, and Italy called them out on it. With 11 out of 13 entries reaching the top 10 since their re-entry, Italy stand as one of the current-day Eurovision superpowers.
Best Italian result so far: Won 3 times (1964, 1990 and 2021), 2nd place 3 times (1974, 2011, 2019) and 3rd place 5 times (1958, 1963, 1975, 1987, 2015). 1958's third-placed 'Nel blu, dipinto di blu' is apparently also the world's most-covered song.
Opinion: Italy have been suffering from the 'Sweden Disease', in that their image as a Eurovision great will pull up even weaker entries, but that isn't the case here. Angelina Mango offers something fresh anyone would be unlikely to hear outside of their usual radio stations and curated playlists, and brings a vibrant charisma that keeps the attention (unlike some of Italy's snoozy ballads that - I'm sorry if I'm offending Italy fans - looked so boring even the performers looked like they didn't want to be there). I commend Italy for sending something different for a change, since the whole "conventionally attractive solo dude" has been working out absolutely fine for them. 'La noia''s only downside to me is that it lasts just a tad too long.
Snarky opinion: -
Prediction: Top 5.
Shot at winning: 10%. I think the odds right now overestimate it, but then I've been known to underestimate Italy's odds.
How bad was my prediction last year? Bad. Italy came 4th and I thought they might well end up bottom 5. Apparently there is a sizable contingent among both juries and public that would get misty eyed even if a trashcan sang in Italian.
14. Israel
Why are you ignoring Israel's entry? Shouldn't you judge it on its own merits, disregarding politics? Eden Golan has chosen to go, she wasn't forced. Even in unfree countries like Türkiye, Russia, Belarus or Azerbaijan, most performers can still choose not to participate in ESC without dire consequences.
About that, why aren't you coming down on those countries? Most of them no longer participate. The only real sore point here is Azerbaijan, but there are two major differences that are both geopolitical and human: Artsakh was never recognised by any government and it itself was mostly the result of Armenia waging war on Azerbaijan. And second, no one died. Not to say that it wasn't ethnic cleansing (it was!), but I can't see how this stacks up to over 30,000 Gazan civilians killed in half a year, many among them children.
But Israel can just send a song, right? Without any politics attached? Their entry was rejected by the EBU twice on account of being too political and too directly referencing Hamas's October 7 attack on Israeli towns and kibbutzes. Imagine a hypothetical United States doing the same after the 9/11 attacks in 2001 and you'll understand at least how tacky that would have been.
How about Ukraine's entries in 2007, 2016, 2022 and 2023? Russia has directly interfered in Ukraine's politics for decades and has destroyed 10,000s of lives in its unprovoked attacks and occupations on Ukraine in 2014 as well as 2022-24. You can think what you will about Hamas, but at its core Israel is a colonialist settler state that uprooted end ended the lives of 100,000s of people since 1947. Ukraine never did anything to Russia. Even if you believe Israel has a right to exist (which isn't unreasonable if you think of what happened in World War II), the fact that Israel blithely ignores its UN-imposed 1947 borders, kills journalists, blocks and bombs humanitarian aid convoys as well as wantonly kills children should tell you we're dealing with a bad actor here.
Sure, but Israel's neighbours would like to basically do a Holocaust 2.0. They do. Does that justify murdering children and bombing humanitarian aid convoys, though? You could say bad dudes like the ayatollahs, Bashar Al-Assad or even Mohammad bin-Salman would happily do the same, but they're dictators. If we're going to compare like for like, Israel's government at least has some degree of popular legitimacy. That is why war crimes committed by ostensibly democratic governments are so much worse - their populations could choose not to vote these thugs into office, but they do.
Prediction: I think Eden Golan will be booed throughout her entire performance. I'm not sure she will not qualify though, perhaps I'm putting to much faith in the ESC televote audience to do the right thing.
Shot at winning: 0%.
How bad was my prediction last year? I was wrong. I thought Noa Kirel was a borderline qualifier, but not only did she qualify, she managed top 10.
15. Norway
Entry: Gåte - Ulveham
Language: Norwegian
Quick description: Bombastic folk metal
What came before? They may not like to hear it, but Norway is kind of Sweden's eccentric little brother. Barring 2016, they've made ever final since 2013, but before that lies a record littered with very, very mixed results. Still, they are known as a competent and quirky country. Their current +6 qualification record is one of the strongest in the Contest.
Best Norwegian result so far: Won 3 times (1985, 1995, 2009). They also came dead last a staggering 11 times, which is still the ESC record.
Qualification streak: +6
Opinion: This is going to be a divisive entry, but remember that you cannot vote against a song, and those who love it will really love it. I'm more optimistic for this one's chances than last year's Lord of the Lost because audiences will more easily recognise Gåte's vocal abilities, and the folksy elements also give a broader audience something to latch onto. I personally like this entry by the way, even if it took some adjusting to understand its somewhat strange structure.
Snarky opinion: -
Prediction: Qualifying, then ending up halfway
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: Not too shabby, I predicted qualification (though it was an easy pick) and saw Norway end up just outside the top 10 - in reality, they came 5th.
16. The Netherlands
Entry: Joost Klein - Europapa
Language: Dutch (mostly)
Quick description: Happy hardcore banger about European unity
What came before? The Netherlands have comfortably nested themselves into the top and sub-top spaces in the past 10 years, and are now experiencing a second ESC Golden Age after the 1970s, often with country and singer-songwriter-like compositions that would likely score in the American Billboard charts. It's an old Belgian joke, but the Netherlands truly are Europe's America.
Best Dutch result so far: Won 5 times (1957, 1959, 1969, 1975 and 2019) and came 2nd once (2014) as well as 3rd once (1974). Duncan Lawrence is the only ESC winner to have held the title for two consecutive years, even on a technicality, but it would be unfair to say that's the only reason he's ascended to the Eurovision pantheon.
Qualification streak: -1
Opinion: A change of tack after last year's drama, and welcome one. This is a friendly, high-energy offering that feels distinctly Dutch and connects with Joost's personal story as well, so it isn't all fluff. The public will flock to this too, I think.
Snarky opinion: A good offering from a genre that's 95% shit is still a bit shitty.
Prediction: Qualifying, then top 10.
Shot at winning: 1%, not counting it out if its momentum keeps rising and others fail.
How bad was my prediction last year: Built on the back of Dutch competence, I thought they would salvage their entry, which had been surrounded by warning signs all the way up to Eurovision. I was wrong. It was hard not to feel a sting of pity for Mia Nicolai and Don Cooper and the palpable relief they seemed to feel after their pretty dreadful performance was over.
My qualification prediction for semi-final 2 (before rehearsals):
In no particular order:
- Armenia
- Austria
- Belgium
- Denmark
- Estonia
- Georgia
- The Netherlands
- Norway
- San Marino
- Switzerland
What was my success rate last year? 8/10:
- Australia
- Austria
- Armenia
- Belgium
- Cyprus
- Estonia
- Georgia
- Iceland
- Lithuania
- Slovenia
