Hi. For the longest time, I was in dubio whether to even engage with the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest after it became clear the EBU was only going to apply the weakest guardrails imaginable against Israel's abuse of the Contest and allowed it to stay on as a participating member. For the low hundreds of people who read this blog - I don't begrudge you for disengaging.
Due to my weaker engagement with the 2026 edition, I won't be posting big analyses of all the participating songs and analyses, but I do want to share my predictions for who's going to make it to the Grand Final, if only so there's a public record here that survives into an edition where Israel is not participating.
What's different this year is that the juries are back in the semis, which makes predictions harder. Oh, by the way, this was written as the first pictures of the rehearsals were coming out.
"ARE YOU ACTUALLY ANY GOOD AT PREDICTING?"
Slightly better than average. To score better than statistically random, because each time 10 countries go through from a 15-16 semi field, you need to score at least 70%.
- 2023 SF1: 8/10
- 2023 SF2: 8/10
- 2024 SF1: 9/10
- 2024 SF2: 7/10
- 2025 SF1: 8/10
- 2025 SF2: 7/10
This yields an approximate average of 79% correct guesses over three years, which makes me about on par with bookies.
SEMI-FINAL 1
Who will make it?
Bookies predict Finland, Greece, Sweden, Israel, Moldova, Serbia, Croatia, Lithuania, Montenegro and Georgia. I almost fully agree, but I think Montenegro won't make the cut and Portugal will. Why? Montenegro has been historically awful at staging, and Portugal has such a great qualifying record that I think they'll pull it off, despite their entry being even more beige than last year's beige-fest.
Upsets?
Apart from San Marino, any other country predicted not to qualify might pull of a stunt, too, but that would depend on surefire qualifiers failing, which I don't really see happening.
Final prediction (in order)
01 - Lithuania
02 - Greece
03 - Finland
04 - Sweden
05 - Moldova
06 - Serbia
07 - Croatia
08 - Israel
09 - Georgia
10 - Portugal
SEMI-FINAL 2
Who will make it?
Bookies predict Australia, Denmark, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Malta, Czechia, Norway and Albania. SF2 is broadly considered more competitive, and with good reason, but I don't think we'll see many upsets here. My prediction is that Armenia will make it in lieu of Bulgaria. Why? Armenia is reliably good at staging and its entry is a televote magnet. Bulgaria has been out of sorts for years, and I'm afraid they'll pull a Ronela (i.e. messy, even vulgar staging).
Upsets?
Switzerland, Luxembourg and Latvia all have a chance. Cyprus, Malta, Albania and Czechia all have spotty track records in qualifying and staging. Also: I'm not so convinced by Australia. So I reckon we'll see one to two upsets here.
Final prediction (in order)
01 - Romania
02 - Ukraine
03 - Norway
04 - Cyprus
05 - Armenia
06 - Denmark
07 - Australia
08 - Malta
09 - Albania
10 - Switzerland
