Eurovision Song Contest 2025: Semi-Final 1

I'll run down the countries in order of appearance. Like last year, the automatic finalists (the Big Five + last year's winner) also perform in the Semis to acquaint the public with their song and increase their chances of doing well. I find that argument a bit crummy because they already have a leg up by virtue of not having to qualify, but I doubt it will eventually move the needle much.

This is a very male-heavy Semi, which increases the odds for the female artists sprinkled throughout (not that I think Poland and Albania particularly need the help this year), as well as lots of party-friendly songs.

With each country, I'll also compare with my predictions of last year.

01. Iceland

Entry: Væb – Róa

Language: Icelandic

Quick description: Energetic sea shanty

What came before? Iceland has been more willing to experiment than other Scandinavian countries, sometimes to their detriment. They have generally been re-cast into a favourable spotlight with the general audience after - believe it or not - 2019's divisive but uncompromising Hattari and the calculated hipster awkwardness of Daði Freyr. They've since switched back to safer entries though. Also to their detriment, I might add, with now two consecutive NQs.

Best Icelandic result so far: Came 2^nd in 1999 and 2009.

Qualification streak: -2

Opinion: Væb exude a youthful, free spirit and are engaging with the ESC fandom very much, which has endeared them to it. That they’re opening Semi 1 is not a gift, but it doesn’t leave them without chances. I don’t think their entry will bore people, but if staged badly, it will come off as amateuristic and might confirm some casuals who don’t enjoy the ESC that the Contest is still an expensive, campy show with sub-par, weird acts.

Snarky opinion: Iceland said: “Let the kids fail this time”

Prediction: Borderline qualifier.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year: Spot-on. Hera Björk came last in her semi with only a measly 3 points.  

02. Poland

Entry: Justyne Steczkowska – GAJA

Language: Polish, English, Old Slavonic

Quick description: Bombastic summoning of the Earth goddess at its finest

What came before? Poland has had a bit of a jobber image for the past 15 years at the contest, with entries all over the place, but rarely ending up in a good place. Population-wise, it’s the biggest country never to have won the ESC.

Best Polish result so far: 2^nd place in 1994, on their very first participation.

Qualification streak: -1

Opinion: If you like ESC camp and bombast, this is your entry to latch onto. But it’s more than that: it showcases Steczkowska’s powerful vocals, stage presence, fitness (it’s really hard to believe this woman is 52 years old!) and sense of drama. Its atmosphere reminds me a little of ‘Wild Dances’ but more grown-up. I do think the “mum dancing” bits of the national final performance should be binned though.

Snarky opinion: Every ESC cliché balled into one package.

Prediction: While the EBU did Poland dirty by giving it the infamous death slot (and after Steczkowska, who already competed in 1995, had to go first back then!), I don’t see why it shouldn’t qualify.

Shot at winning: 5%. I don’t understand how this entry doesn’t come up more in discussions about potential winners in what looks to be a very open year.

How bad was my prediction last year: While initially on the fence, I eventually concluded Poland would likely not qualify and I was right. And already mediocre entry wasn’t helped by typical TVP “overstaging” and a pretty brittle vocal.

03. Slovenia

Entry: Klemen – How much time do we have left?

Language: English

Quick description: Ballad about a kid with cancer – as one does

What came before? Slovenia's record is a pretty bleak one. They don't carry the best image to ESC, and frankly never did. The fandom desperately wants them to do well.

Best Slovenian result so far: 7^th two times (1995, 2001).

Qualification streak: +2

Opinion: Casuals will never be able to guess that Klemen is actually a comedian in his home country. While it luckily does come off as a genuine entry about his kid being diagnosed with cancer, in the back of my head, tackling incredibly serious topics mostly lived by someone else (I’m looking at you, Hungary 2014, with your song about incest) can’t help but feel a little exploitative and tear-jerky. As far as ballads go, it’s not a bad one and Klemen’s a good-looking guy, but this Semi is already overrun with good-looking men.

Snarky opinion: Ballad for sentimental wine mums.

Prediction: Not qualifying. What small chances it had were murdered by its running order. Slovenia also has a pretty bad record at staging.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year: Almost completely correct, though Raiven’s GF result was slightly worse than I had anticipated.

04. Estonia

Entry: Tommy Cash

Language: Italian, English, Spanish

Quick description: Pastiche of Italian ditties

What came before? Barring a dry spell between 2004 and 2008, Estonia has been a pretty reliable performer at Eurovision, often breaking into the top 10 but just as often floundering in the Grand Finals.

Best Estonian result so far: Won in 2002, 3^rd in 2003.

Qualification streak: +3

Opinion: Tommy Cash is probably the most well-known Estonian musician in Europe (and is also friends with previous alumni Joost Klein and Käärijä) and while ‘Espresso macchiato’ is amusing, Cash will really need to up the ante staging-wise to make good on his claim that he’s going for Estonia’s 2^nd win, because the national finals performance felt sloppy and a little arrogant. The song itself to me thinks it’s funnier than it really is and the weird Italian/Spanish mixed phrases may come off as ignorant or borderline racist to either country.

Snarky opinion: Bad parody of Italian music

Prediction: Qualifying

Shot at winning: 1% because it’s a very competitive year.

How bad was my prediction last year: I was wrong. After some dithering I thought 5minuust & Puulluup wouldn’t qualify, but they did and by a decent margin.

--. Spain

Entry: Melody – ESA DIVA

Language: Spanish

Quick description: Spanish, well, diva song

What came before? After almost 20 years of languishing in the desert of near-bottom and bottom-tier entries, Spain surprisingly reinvented itself in 2022, then immediately went downhill again.

Best Spanish result so far: Won twice (1968, 1969), came 2^nd 4 times (1971, 1973, 1979, 1995) and came 3^rd twice (1984, 2022).

Opinion: Bland, run-off-the-mill Spanish pop affair. Melody does have some charisma and the entry’s revamp made it a little more competitive, but I wonder who the audience for this track is. Last year’s entry also felt dated but at least it had a message. I also hope Melody doesn’t repeat her “helicopter hair” stunt from Benidorm Fest, only to then ridiculously claim it’s a “Spanish culture” thing after facing mockery for it. This gimmick could have gotten Spain some votes back in the early aughts, but now I think not so much.

Snarky opinion: Time machine to the summer of 2002.

Prediction: Bottom 10

Shot at winning: 0%

How wrong was I last year? I predicted bottom 10 for Spain last year, too, and I was completely correct.

05. Ukraine

Entry: Ziferblat – Bird of pray

Language: Ukrainian, English

Quick description: 60s prog rock

What came before? Ukraine is a Eurovision superpower on par with Sweden and Italy. Its image looms large with even the casual Eurovision viewer, discounting the terrible war the country finds itself in. Ukraine is a country that seems to understand the modern Festival at its core. Since entering the contest in 2003, they have never not qualified for the Grand Final.

Best Ukrainian result so far: Won 3 times (2004, 2016, 2022), came 2^nd twice (2007, 2008) and 3^rd twice (2013, 2024).

Qualification streak: +14 (barring two wins)

Opinion: Discounting the awkward wordplay of the title, I personally like the power, artistry and complexity of this entry. Ziferblat oozes charisma and the song manages to command attention throughout its entire run. It is a more divisive entry than usual though: some people seem to find it too loud and disjointed, but I think that’s on them.

Snarky opinion: How many songs can you keep crafting about war?

Prediction: Qualifying, then left hand of the scoreboard.

Shot at winning: 1%.

How bad was my prediction last year: Pretty good but underestimated a little. I gave them 2% chance to win and they came 3^rd.

06. Sweden

Entry: KAJ – Bara bada bastu

Language: Swedish

Quick description: Swedish schlager about going to the sauna

What came before? Since 2011, Sweden has replaced Ireland as the country to beat. They now occupy a joint 1^st place in the all-time rankings since their 7^th win last year, and also equal Ireland for the record of the same artist winning the Contest twice.

Best Swedish result so far: Won 7 times (1974, 1984, 1991, 1999, 2012, 2015, 2023), came 2^nd once (1966) and 3^rd 6 times (1983, 1985, 1995, 1996, 2011 and 2014).

Qualification streak: +10 (barring three wins)

Opinion: This is an instantly fun offering free of any pretense or the usual, calculated Swedish pop perfection and a refreshing change of pace (although its eventual win in Melodifestivalen was a shock that didn’t go down well with some other contestants). There is heartfelt joy in this entry, as well as a nice representation of Nordic culture. Doubly fun that it took Swedish-speaking Finns for Sweden to finally send another entry in their native language.

Snarky opinion: Swedish carnival music.

Prediction: Top 5.

Shot at winning: 5%. This one has a decent chance of winning the televote. I think the bookies are overestimating its chances a little overall, but I’m not discounting it being a potential winner.

How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly predicted Marcus & Martinus would qualify.

07. Portugal

Entry: NAPA - Deslocado

Language: Portuguese

Quick description: Portuguese indie

What came before? Portugul is still riding the ripples of their win in 2017 but later entries seem to have fallen back into the fold of middling results.

Best Portuguese result so far: Won once (2017). Portugal also came last 4 times, though (1964, 1974, 1997 and 2018).

Qualification record: +4

Opinion: One of the few entries that looks dead on arrival. Everything is beige about this: the vocals, the music, even the stage outfits. Unless they dramatically change the staging, I don’t see this snoozefest going anywhere. It isn’t a bad song per se, just very forgettable. And yes, for the Flemings reading this, the singer really looks a lot like Jelle De Beule (João Debulo?).

Snarky opinion: ‘Beige’, the song.

Prediction: Not qualifying.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year: I correctly predicted Portugal would qualify.

08. Norway

Entry: Kyle Alessandro – Lighter

Language: English

Quick description: Scandi powerpop

What came before? They may not like to hear it, but Norway is kind of Sweden's eccentric little brother. Barring 2016, they've made every final since 2013, but before that lies a record littered with very, very mixed results. Still, they are known as a competent and quirky country. Their current +7 qualification record is one of the strongest in the Contest.

Best Norwegian result so far: Won 3 times (1985, 1995, 2009). They also came dead last a staggering 12 times, which is still the ESC record.

Qualification streak: +7

Opinion: It’s almost a miracle we got this out of a very weak preselection. The song itself is a little generic, up to and including its dance break, which has become a real thing in the past few years, but it is saved by a charismatic performer with stage chops and the inclusion of some folk instrumentation.

Snarky opinion: An Alexander Rybak for the TikTok age.

Prediction: Qualifying, then ending up halfway.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I did correctly predict qualification but thought Gåte would at least reach mid-table – they came last instead. After the undeserved last place of Germany’s Lord of the Lost in 2023, it really proved neither jury or public can appreciate well-crafted metal music (unless you give it a ‘70s or ‘80s twist), which is a God-damn shame.

09. Belgium

Entry: Red Sebastian – Strobe lights

Language: English

Quick description: Rave

What came before? Disclaimer - I am Belgian. Anyway, Belgium's recent ESC history has been spotty, which isn't helped by the annual switch between Flemish and Walloon broadcasters selecting an entry. Still, there is a kooky legacy image with Telex, Pas de Deux and Urban Trad, who proudly continued Belgium's tradition of surrealism writ large.

Best Belgian result so far: Won in 1986, came 2^nd in 2003, but also came last 8 times.

Qualification streak: -1

Opinion: This is a solid offering with a strong vocal that also fronts actual Belgian culture with this type of rave/techno music. Unfortunately, it’s done dirty by its running order spot and faces brutal competition in its Semi from entries occupying or overlapping similar spaces (the vocal, the genre, the bombast). It probably helps a little that the Netherlands are in the same Semi, but Red Sebastian will need to bring his A game in staging, something both Belgian broadcasters have traditionally not been incredible at. That, or hoping Cyprus’s entry will helplessly flounder.

Snarky opinion: Dead Sebastian?

Prediction: Qualifying but not by much. I need to believe.

Shot at winning: 0%. That the bookies had this at the #1 spot at the beginning of the season was a freak anomaly.

How bad was my prediction last year? I was completely wrong. While I did think chances of qualification for Mustii were growing dimmer and dimmer as the Semi approached, he unfortunately gave one of his Semi’s worst performances.

--. Italy

Entry: Lucio Corsi – Voleve essere un duro

Language: Italian

Quick description: Classic rock ballad

What came before? After re-entering Eurovision in 2011, Italy definitively buried the notion the Big Four (henceforth Five) don't perform well because people don't like them. They were just bad, and Italy called them out on it. With 12 out of 14 entries reaching the top 10 since their re-entry, Italy stand as one of the current-day Eurovision superpowers.

Best Italian result so far: Won 3 times (1964, 1990 and 2021), 2^nd place 3 times (1974, 2011, 2019) and 3^rd place 5 times (1958, 1963, 1975, 1987, 2015). 1958's third-placed 'Nel blu, dipinto di blu' is apparently also the world's most-covered song.

Opinion: This song is not for me. While not as forgettable as Portugal’s, Lucio’s distinct appearance makes it seem like he’s about to seriously rock out, only to deliver a kind of lullaby. Last year, I bitterly complained that there is a Eurovision cohort that would vote for Italy even if they sent a trashcan singing in Italian, so I wonder if this will save it from oblivion. I’m not saying this is a bad song, it’s just tepid, conservative fare we’ve heard dozens of times before.

Snarky opinion: Elton John Eltonio Gianni

Prediction: Could be Italy’s first right-hand scoreboard result in a long time.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year? Pretty decent, I even gave Angelina Mango a chance at winning, but she ended up 7^th.

10. Azerbaijan

Entry: Mamagama - Run with u

Language: English

Quick description: Oriental electropop

What came before? Azerbaijan used to send smart entries that are in tune with Eurovision's mood and temperature (although there have been credible allegations of cheating in their heyday). They have hit a bit of a snag recently. 

Best Azeri result so far: Won once (2011), came 2^nd once (2013) and came 3^rd  once (2009).

Qualification streak: -2

Opinion: It’s a nice entry, even if it pretty obviously rips off Daft Punk’s ‘Lucky’, with an upbeat energy and a nice sprinkle of traditional snares. A lot will depend on how it’s staged and since the Azeris are usually cagey with their live performances and stage ideas, we’ll have to wait and see until the last moment.

Snarky opinion: Draft Punk.

Prediction: I’m on the fence about this one, especially considering I’ve been wrong about Azerbaijan for two years in a row (predicted qualification both times).

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: Thought they would qualify (but not by much), but it was a very clear NQ.

11. San Marino

Entry: Gabry Ponte – Tutta l’Italia

Language: Italian

Quick description: Italian tarantella bop

What came before? I'm convinced San Marino's participations are a ploy by the microstate's Office of Tourism. With only 3 qualifications out of 14 performances and three last places in these NQs, things don't look very encouraging, unfortunately.

Best Sammarinese result so far: 19^th in 2019. Yeah.

Qualification streak: -3

Opinion: This is an incredibly infectious and unpretentious bop brought to you by one of the minds behind Eiffel 65’s ‘Blue’. It was this year’s theme song of the San Remo festival and it’s already popular in Italy – Italy can also vote in this Semi. But will it be enough? San Marino never enjoys any favours from the audience at large, and it could be that a DJ taking centre stage while some anon sings the words next to it are too unattractive to kill even a super cute offering like this.

Snarky opinion: “For the love of God Italy, finally give your little brother some points!”

Prediction: Qualifying. 

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I thought Megara would just manage to scrape by, but they weren’t even close to qualifying.

12. Albania

Entry: Shkodra Elektronike – Zjerm

Language: Albanian

Quick description: Balkan indietronica

What came before? While Eurovision's enfranchised audience has embraced Albania as one of those countries that offer entries truer to their native culture, this has never translated into good results, with a pretty spotty qualification record. Albania tends to be along for the ride, do the minimum to qualify and that's it.

Best Albanian result so far: 5^th in 2012.

Qualification streak: -1

Opinion: This is a unique entry that tries to do something different for a change – a very modern indietronica composition with some ethnic elements and a frontwoman who for once isn’t a voluptuous, dramatic belter. It will not be to everyone’s taste, but it has a very distinct identity that makes it stand out. Plus, finally Albania’s been given a decent running order after a few pretty dreary years.

Snarky opinion: -

Prediction: Qualifying.

Shot at winning: 1% if all the stars miraculously align, but chances are incredibly small.

How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly predicted they wouldn’t qualify.

13. The Netherlands

Entry: Claude - C'est la vie

Language: French, English

Quick description: Mid-tempo modern pop

What came before? The Netherlands have comfortably nested themselves into the top and sub-top spaces in the past 10 years, and are now experiencing a second ESC Golden Age after the 1970s. Last year’s disqualification of Joost Klein on the eve of the Grand Final was a shocking disgrace to the EBU, considering all the shit that Israel pulled that very same year. I hope they can catch a break this year after two consecutive years of drama with their delegation.

Best Dutch result so far: Won 5 times (1957, 1959, 1969, 1975 and 2019) and came 2^nd  once (2014) as well as 3^rd once (1974). Duncan Lawrence is the only ESC winner to have held the title for two consecutive years, even on a technicality, but it would be unfair to say that's the only reason he's ascended to the Eurovision pantheon. The Netherlands are also the only country ever to get disqualified while the contest was ongoing (2024).

Qualification streak: +1

Opinion: I understand why this one appeals to many people, but I’m not a fan. It’s a well-composed song but it rips off Stromae a bit too closely for comfort (which France attempted unsuccessfully already) in styling and its official video. The French parts of Claude’s lyrics sound cliché and trite, and the man has an odd Dutch twang in his French (although presumably it is one of his mother languages?). I realise all of the above could only ever be the opinion of someone from Belgium and most viewers will look past this and just enjoy it.

Snarky opinion: “But we have Stromae at home”.

Prediction: Qualifying, then top 10 or even top 5.

Shot at winning: 1%, not counting it out if its momentum keeps rising and others fail.

How bad was my prediction last year: I did predict qualification, but could never have been predicted the chaos that would follow. There are people who think Joost would have won the contest last year, but I don’t think so at all. His performance, while high-energy, was a bit sloppy and at times he was visibly out of breath. The juries would have sunk this.

14. Croatia

Entry: Marko Bošnjak – Poison cake

Language: English

Quick description: Dark comedic musical theatre

What came before? Croatia has had middling ESC results at best in the past 15 years, with its sole standout last year, where Baby Lasagne came 2^nd.

Best Croatian result so far: 2^nd place in 2024.

Qualification streak: +2

Opinion: I think there are lots of interesting ideas here and the song certainly commands attention, but the execution is going to be very difficult to get right. Some have compared it to last year’s ‘Doomsday Blue’ but that song was more clever and almost through-composed, whereas here it feels more like separate ideas are thrown on top of each other and then repeated. If this goes badly, especially with the screams at the end, it has the potential to become memorable for all the wrong reasons and end up unintentionally funny.

Snarky opinion: What if JESC allowed an entry about killing someone?

Prediction: Unless the staging and execution is top notch, this won’t qualify.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: Correct. I gave Baby Lasagne a 20% to win it and he came 2^nd.

--. Switzerland

Entry: Zoë Më – Voyage

Language: French

Quick description: Purestrain ballad

What came before? Switzerland has been ascendant in the ESC in the past decade, barring the occasional blip.

Best Swiss result so far: Won three times (1956, 1988, 2024), came 2^nd three times (1958, 1963, 1968) and came 3^rd 4 times (1961, 1982, 1993 and 2021). Switzerland also came last 5 times and was the first country to score 'nul points' in a Semi-Final with the now infamous Piero & The Music Stars' awful vocals, the lead vocalist slapping himself in the face with his microphone and his screechy, sinister laugh near the end.

Qualification streak: +5

Opinion: A typical host entry that doesn’t have a lot of ambition. It’s a sweet and endearing song, but that’s about it. I also find it a bit dodgy the hosts gave themselves such a great spot in the running order, but it’s not disallowed, I guess.

Snarky opinion: “Let’s make sure we don’t accidentally win again.”

Prediction: Bottom 10.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: Like Croatia, I gave the Swiss a 20% chance of winning, and they won.

15. Cyprus

Entry: Theo Evan – Shh

Language: English

Quick description: Eurodance

What came before? Many people are aware Cyprus would really like to win the ESC one day. Since their 2^nd place in 2018, they've mostly been churning out vaguely Mediterranean pop bops, but with somewhat diminishing returns.

Best Cypriot result so far: 2^nd in 2018. Cyprus holds the record for most performances without a single win - standing at 41 years now.

Qualification streak: +2

Opinion: Production-wise, I think this offering is Cyprus’s strongest in a few years. It’s getting a massive boon by dint of being last in the running order and so after Belgium’s, which puts it into a better position vis à vis that entry. It also hired Sergio Jaen (the stage director of last year’s ‘Doomsday Blue’) to do the staging, so there are great expectations, but it will all hinge on Theo’s live vocal and performance.

Snarky opinion: AI-generated top 10 junk.

Prediction: As it stands I think this is qualifying even when the vocal won’t be superb due to its slot in the running order and the staging.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year: I correctly predicted Silia Kapsis would qualify, although a lot of other analysts had serious doubts.

So who's qualifying?

I will revisit my predictions once I've seen some rehearsal and pre-party footage, but as it stands, I think this is the most likely list of qualifiers, in no particular order:

• Ukraine
• Sweden
• Poland
• Albania
• San Marino
• The Netherlands
• Norway
• Estonia
• Belgium
• Cyprus

Eurovision Song Contest 2025: Preamble

Those who'd like to go straight to the previews and predictions can skip this preamble below (or preramble, if you will) and begin reading the next blog post.

Hi, hello

It's been a while. In fact, since last year's omnishambles Eurovision season. Last year, I said I might move to video for this year instead, but life has thrown other priorities my way. Not making any promises this year.

For those just reading this blog for the first time: this is my English-language blog that I keep a bit separate from the rest (I'm a Dutch-language writer of fiction, non-fiction, poetry, opinion pieces and a bit of a general language creative, but I also hold an M.A. in English language and literature and started learning English when I was 8). I am from and still live in Belgium.

Eurovision, you and me [abridged]

As I was born in 1983, my Eurovision memories go back a pretty long time. The first Eurovision song I can remember hearing is Johnny Logan's 'Hold me now', which he won the contest with in 1987. Because the live-event took place quite late in the evening, the first Eurovision show I was allowed to (partially) watch was the 1992 edition. At the turn of Dana International's 'Diva' winning the ESC in 1998, I actively began enjoying the increasingly campy nature of it.

I lost interest until Lordi's 'Hard rock hallelujah' firmly entrenched ESC's modern era as a spectacle full of outrageous performance, thickly-applied camp and diversity in 2006. I've never skipped an edition since.

I believe that the past decade has been a new Golden Age for ESC. After maybe overdosing a little too much on the irony and weirdness (I'm looking at the rogues gallery here of Jedward, “Woki mit dem Popo”, “Euro Neuro”, Eurovision Kahl Drogo, Dustin the Turkey, a long list of utterly embarrassing British entries, gratuitous appeal to sleaze, and Zdob și Zdub's first entry), the Contest eventually self-corrected. This coincided with the poptimism movement and the advent of music streaming, which tore down the walls of genre pigeonholing, elitism and allowed genuine artistic intent to become part of the ESC mix once more.

Where are we at now?

Not only do most participating countries take ESC seriously again, a whole online community has sprung up that also takes it seriously, but always with a tongue firmly in cheek. For casual viewers, it’s still a family event and has been come entrenched in most people’s minds as a totally camp event. Which it is. But is also a lot more.

Are the songs any good this year?

I would say it is a slightly weaker year overall. On the upside, there is no widely predicted winner instead and it also isn't the two-horse race that was 2023 and (to a lesser extent) 2024.

Why is Israel still allowed to participate in the 2025 Contest? 

If the Contest and its parent organisation, the European Broadcasting Union, was as left-wing as some conservatives and reactionaries like to think, there is no way in hell Israel would be allowed to participate. The EBU and the ESC are sort of milquetoast-y liberal in the loosest sense at best. 

Yes, they've included some guardrails to stop repeating Israel's harassment of contestants critical of its genocide in Gaza, but they continued their sponsorship deal with MorrocanOil (which is oddly an Israeli company) and they're doing nothing against Israel's social media attempts to garner public support for their song with the Jewish/Israeli diaspora and right-wing ghouls who normally hate the ESC.

If I was the EBU's CEO, Israel would be banned in an instant. Read more in my analysis (not an analysis of this year's Israeli entry further down).

The reason Russia and Belarus were so quickly banned after the start of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine was because the broadcasters who comprise EBU demanded it. As those broadcasters are state-owned and almost no European political leadership outright condemns Israel's actions, neither do the broadcasters.

Here's YouTuber verilybitchy:

 

If you’re so against Israel participating, why aren't you boycotting the ESC? 

Calling for boycotts mostly seems to come from people who never watched or didn't like the ESC anyway. Pretty easy to boycott something you never liked in the first place, right? That won’t change the viewership much, which is what the boycotters are aiming for so it would force the EBU to take action. Instead of throwing away the baby with the bath water, I’ll discuss every entry except Israel’s.

As a sidenote, it is not on me to take responsibility for the EBU’s terrible decision-making. I reliably vote for parties that call Israel’s genocide for what it is and I use what little influence I have on my blogs and in my literature to educate others.

We’ll see how the 2025 ESC goes.

 

Why is [COUNTRY] allowed to participate?

Any country that pays fees to the EBU and has a national broadcaster is eligible to compete. Said country doesn't physically have to be in Europe (in fact, all national broadcasters from Europe, North Africa and the Middle East are eligible as per the EBU’s charter). So that's the formal answer. To delve into specific countries:

Australia

Australia is allowed to participate because it pays to do so and the country's been ESC-crazy since forever. 

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan did their own little ethnic cleansing in the Armenian enclave of Artsakh in 2024. While that is a plausible argument, it blurs the lines and would create lines of argumentation to ban a whole lot more countries. That would ultimately divide us between ethically purist views and "¯\_(ツ)_/¯ who's to say really?" centrists that only serve to obfuscate Israel's extremely obvious and ongoing war crimes. But feel free to have your own point of view.

Cyprus

Geologically, Cyprus is not in Europe. But its internationally recognised government and people are Greek-speaking, it is a member of the European Union, and hell, before Türkiye withdrew from ESC, you could argue the entire island was well within the European cultural and political sphere because half of the island speaks Turkish.

Why does [COUNTRY] not participate (anymore)?

Some (former) EBU members participated in the past, but not anymore.

Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Libya, Tunisia, Syria

Believe it or not, all of these countries are either EBU members or associate members. Libya is currently suspended, and all the others either have major political upheaval going on (which is putting it lightly) or are dictatorships whose values are completely inimical to ESC participation.

Andorra

Andorra actually participated six times between 2004 and 2009. It never qualified and it withdrew after the 2009 edition, publicly citing financial reasons (although I’m not sure how much of this is true, since participation fees depend on population size and I can’t imagine Andorra being much poorer than San Marino). But never qualifying probably didn’t help.

Belarus

Belarus was banned from the EBU itself after being considered a cobelligerent on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The dictatorship was already on shaky grounds with the Contest after attempting to send an entry in 2021 that was a thinly veiled exhortation for the Belarusian public to obey their strongman, or else.

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Bosnia-Herzegovina participated 19 times in the ESC between 1993 and 2016. After the semi-final system was introduced, it managed to qualify every time except the last time it participated. Since 2018, its national broadcaster was suspended from the EBU because of unpaid debts, and since institutional and financial deadlock has kept the nation in its grip, the situation hasn’t changed.

Bulgaria

Bulgaria fell off the Eurovision wagon in 2023, after a run of 14 appearances starting in 2005. In the past decade, it actually did pretty well, coming 2^nd in 2017, and some predicted Bulgaria would be able to win in the near future. That sadly didn’t materialize and they finally withdrew in 2023, citing, and say it with me, financial reasons.

Hungary

Hungary was among the wave of Central- and Eastern-European countries that entered the ESC in the ‘90s. It participated 17 times, its final run ending with an NQ in 2019. No official reasons have ever been given for their withdrawal but it’s a public secret they withdrew because the ESC is “too gay” and that doesn’t fit into the bigoted worldview of Orbàn and his cronies.

Kazachstan

Some people will be surprised to find Kazachstan on this list. It never participated in ESC but did participate in JESC, and technically its westernmost territory is geographically part of Europe. It is unlikely to ever enter the ESC though. Dictatorships or near-dictatorships also tend to not do very well in the Contest because wouldn’t you know, state broadcasters of countries like that are pretty bad at making relevant art.

Kosovo

Kosovo has never participated either and it’s unlikely it ever will until several EBU member states (most notably Serbia, but also Spain) recognise it as a sovereign state. One could argue Türkiye and Cyprus also participated side-by-side without much of an issue, but Türkiye has never claimed Cyprus isn’t a country – they just recognise only half of it.

Lebanon

Lebanon’s ill-fated attempt to participate in 2004 is its only one thus far, and it was dead on arrival because its national broadcaster didn’t want to show Israel’s entry. It’s against EBU rules to not show all the songs, and it makes me wonder why the Lebanese broadcaster didn’t realise this sooner.

Liechtenstein

Liechtenstein has never participated in the ESC. Like clockwork, every few years the microstate makes some noises about considering a participation, and every time the rumours turn out to be a nothingburger. If having the show right next door in 2015 and 2025 didn’t convince them to come out, I think nothing will.

Moldova

Moldova withdrew in 2025 even after it had already selected its song. The country was honest enough to say that while finances were part of the reason, they also thought their current selection just wasn’t good enough to warrant spending money on. While that’s painful for the artists to hear, it was also probably true. Many fans hope they find a way to come back, because their run includes some true classics and their delegation is known for its resourcefulness in doing a lot with little.

Monaco

Monaco used to participate from 1959 until 1979 and briefly came back from 2004 to 2006. It even won the ESC once in 1971. It withdrew after 2006, saying that “regional voting patterns” make it impossible for the microstate to qualify. While there is truth to the fact that microstates get little love from the public, it isn’t impossible for tiny countries to qualify and do well. Especially considering Monaco is insanely wealthy, their reason can’t help but sound like there’s some sour grapes mixed in there too.

Morocco

Morocco participated in the ESC only once, in 1980, when Israel didn’t participate (taking a break from two back-to-back victories), so now you know the reason why it never came back. Even if Israel was kicked out or left the EBU, I’m not sure if Morocco would even want to come back.

North Macedonia

Between 1996 and 2022, North Macedonia participated 21 times in the ESC. Since the inception of the semi-finals it greatly struggled to qualify, which is all the more remarkable since their culturally similar neighbours Serbia and Bulgaria managed to get a solid run. It withdrew in 2023 on account of, you guessed it, finances.

Slovakia

While Slovakia first appeared in the ESC in 1994, its attendance record was spotty, totaling only 7 participations until they threw in the towel in 2013. Ever since, Slovakia has sometimes teased a return, sometimes cited financial reasons for not coming back, but the ESC has never been particularly popular with the Slovak public, and its current Viktor Orbàn-style government is pushing it even further away.

Romania

Romania withdrew in 2024 after a remarkable run that had some insiders speculate they might actually win the ESC sometime soon. Their 2023 entry was an omnishambles that they used as an excuse for their withdrawal, but in reality it was likely a combination of financial issues (Romania’s participation fee was quite high on account of its population), delegation incompetence and internal politics.

Russia

Russia was expelled from the EBU after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Before that, they were one of the Contest’s powerhouses and pulled their 1^st and only win in 2008, totaling 23 appearances as well as many top 5 rankings. I don’t think Russia will be readmitted into the EBU anytime soon, and honestly, as their entries grew considerably more schmalzy and saccharine in tandem with the nation evolving into a full-blown fascist dictatorship, I think few people miss Russia.

Türkiye

Türkiye is a former power player in the ESC, with 34 participations starting from 1975 until 2012, including their 1^st and only win in 2003. Ostensibly their withdrawal was due to “the rules of the competition” (the introduction of the 50/50 jury-public vote), but like with Hungary, it’s an open secret the country’s increasing moves towards authoritarianism also played a significant role. Like I said in the Belarus part, perhaps it’s for the best they’re staying away, as authoritarian nations tend to send dull entries anyway. It’s a pity though, because Türkiye used to be such a great wellspring of creative participations.

Vatican City

Although the notion of a Vatican participation in the Contest is very amusing, there is no reason at all for the Holy See to ever come to the ESC unless as a publicity stunt of sorts (which I don’t think ardent Catholics would even enjoy, so who would it be for?). I’m not even entirely sure if the EBU would allow it, because Vatican City is such a strange entity in terms of statehood.

Isn't the Eurovision Song Contest 'the Gay Olympics'?

Not really. While the representation of the queer community in both the fandom as well as participating acts is probably outsized compared to the numbers among the general population, I don't think the numbers of queer people involved in the ESC are proportionally higher than any other performing art scene such as theatre, opera or even current-day pop music. What makes it different is probably that it is an outlet/inlet into camp and queer culture for many countries where this is very unusual to take centre stage or be a massive televised spectacle.

Next up: Semi-Final 1.