I'll run down the countries in order of appearance. With each country, I'll also compare with my predictions of last year. This is a more ballad-heavy Semi, which makes it a little more difficult for ballads to qualify (and they already have some trouble with a televote-only system).
01. Australia
Entry: Go-Jo – Milkshake man
Language: English
Quick description: Cheeky ‘80s-inspired electropop
What came before? Despite this only being Australia's 10th
performance, their record so far is very impressive, with 7/9 qualifications.
Apart from the most hardened skeptics or casuals who believe Australia doesn't
'belong' in ESC, our friends from down-under have more than earned their
keep.
Best Australian result so far: 2nd in 2016.
Qualification streak: -1
Opinion: This is an entry with a pretty obvious double
entendre. In the words of Go-Jo himself: “It’s about being the loudest and
proudest version of yourself. Oh, and it’s also about cum.” However, as first
in the running order, they’ll have to stage it in a family-friendly way.
Barring the mess that was last year, Go-Jo should be able to stage this in a
fun way that draws attention. The song has an overall fun vibe to it, too.
Snarky opinion: Why does everyone keep singing
about goddamn food and sex this year?
Prediction: Qualifying.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: I correctly predicted ‘One
milkali’ wouldn’t qualify. The live performance was even worse than I had
expected. It looked improvised on the spot and the vocals were pretty raw.
02. Montenegro
Entry: Nina Žižić – Dobrodošli
Language: Montenegrin
Quick description: Classic Balkan ballad
What came before? Starting in 2007, Montenegro
participated 12 times (including this year) and has had a qualification record
about as abysmal as San Marino’s, making it to only two Grand Finals. It is
returning to the ESC after two gap years.
Best Montenegrin result so far: 13th in 2015. Still
better than San Marino, I suppose!
Qualification streak: -5
Opinion: Nina Žižić already participated in the ESC
with 2009’s Who See (an entry that was undeservedly absolutely murdered by the
juries in its Semi) but is now bringing a classic Balkan ballad to the fore.
It’s a well-crafted song and there are no doubts about the live vocals, but
this entry isn’t helped by its bad running order. Counter to popular wisdom,
televote audiences do show love to ballads on occasion, if they are staged with
the utmost precision and quality.
Snarky opinion: A Very Serious Performance by your
local art gallery proprietor
Prediction: I lean more towards not
qualifying, which is unfortunate because it could mean we’re losing Montenegro
again in 2026.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: -
03. Ireland
Entry: EMMY – Laika Party
Language: English
Quick description: Eurodance bop about the first dog
in space
What came before? The days of Ireland being a
Eurovision juggernaut are long past us. Barring a few bright spots, Ireland has
consistently performed poorly in the past 25 years. Apparently the Irish public
at large thinks "it's all political" but as ESC Tom (who himself is Irish) pointed out, the
fact that most Irish entries in the past decades haven't done well in Irish
charts speaks volumes. Why would Europe like their songs if Ireland itself
doesn't like them to begin with? Last year offered a break with the phenomenal
Bambie Thug.
Best Irish result so far: Won 7 times (1970, 1980, 1987,
1992, 1993, 1994 and 1996), which is a record they now share with Sweden. In
addition, singer Johnny Logan is known as Mr. Eurovision on account of winning
the contest two times as a performer (1980 and 1987) and one time as a producer
(1992). Lastly, Ireland came 2nd 4 times (1967, 1984, 1990 and
1997). I will never forgive Ireland for unleashing Riverdance on the global
public, though.
Qualification streak: +1
Opinion: This is sweet bubblegum Eurodance fare in the
vein of Aqua, which is not entirely unsurprising since Emmy is Norwegian. It’s
a cute entry with an original take (“What if Laika didn’t die in space?”), but
even the studio version already feels like it would be more appropriate for
JESC, which isn’t helped by Emmy’s child-like vocal (this is not her doing this
on purpose, she really does have that vocal colour). A silly or uninspired
staging will sink this, I’m afraid, and she’s also not helped by the running
order.
Snarky opinion: Going straight to the dogs with a
song about a dog
Prediction: Leaning towards non-qualification.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: I correctly predicted
qualification, but given that I said the Grand Final performance was
unpredictable, I can’t be too self-congratulatory about that.
04. Latvia
Entry: Tautumeitas – Bur man laimi
Language: Latvian
Quick description: Faerie-like folk choir
What came before? Latvia failed to qualify for the
final 11 times. Despite winning the Contest back in 2002, they now share the
space with a couple of other countries with the label "unpredictable and
possibly weird", often enjoyed by the in-crowd but less favoured by the
general public. They broke a 6 NQ streak in 2024.
Best Latvian result so far: Won once (2002), came 3rd
on their first participation in 2000 (which may have set the tone for
"lovably quirky").
Qualification streak: +1
Opinion: I think this is a very unique and interesting
proposition and might do well with parts of the audience that watch the ESC
precisely to experience music they would otherwise never do on the radio or via
regular streaming. Others might find it harder to latch onto, especially
because of ‘Bur man laimi’’s somewhat uncommon and repetitive structure. Good
staging could help, which the band has already proven they can do well at their
national selection.
Snarky opinion: It’s Enya, but this time there’s 6
of them!
Prediction: I lean more towards qualification
because there is nothing like it in its Semi and I’m confident it will be
delivered well.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: I went against my gut feeling and
said Dons wouldn’t qualify, but he became his Semi’s shock qualifier, much to
the wider ESC community’s delight.
05. Armenia
Entry: PARG – Survivor
Language: English
Quick description: Defiant stadium rap-rock
What came before? With three exceptions, ever since
Armenia's first participation in 2006, they've qualified for every Grand Final.
While Rosa Linn only came 20th in
2022's Grand Final, her song exploded all over the world through TikTok later.
Best Armenian result so far: 4th in 2008 and 2014.
Qualification streak: +3
Opinion: After years of successful internal
selections, for some reason Armenia decided to organise national finals again.
These were an unmitigated disaster on every level, with weak entries, bad
production and awful performances. Parg was the least bad out of these, but
still left a lot to be desired. The Armenian delegation is known to stage well,
and I actually think ‘Survivor’ offers something genuinely captivating to work
with. If Parg doesn’t manage to clean up his vocals and diction, this has the
potential to become one of those “funny for all the wrong reasons” moments,
especially with his fake laughter somewhere in the middle of the track.
Snarky opinion: Imagine Dragons from wish.com
Prediction: I would really like this to qualify but I remain on the fence until we’ve seen some rehearsal snapshots. To its advantage is that there's nothing else like this in its Semi.
Shot at winning: 0%.
How bad was my prediction last year: Like in 2024, I correctly
predicted qualification, though I overestimated Armenia's end result by a
little. I guess I’m a bit of an Armenia-stan!
06. Austria
Entry: JJ – Wasted love
Language: English
Quick description: Popera meets techno
What came before? Austria has historically always been
a bit of a jobber, with a small glory period between 2014 and 2018.
Best Austrian result so far: Won twice (1966 and 2014), came 3rd
once (2018). Also came last 7 times, but the last time that happened was in
1991.
Qualification streak: +2
Opinion: I think ‘Wasted love’ is an awesome entry in
all the meanings of the word. While some have compared it to Nemo’s winning
song from last year because of the operatic vocals, to me this one feels
distinct enough to not be an uninspired copy. In fact, I think it does all the
things Nemo did but does them even better. It remains to be seen whether the
public thinks the same. Doing the vocal justice live should normally not be a
problem (this is an area Austria has been spotty at in the past 5 years) as JJ
is a trained opera vocalist.
Snarky opinion: What if Nemo but more bombastic?
Prediction: Qualification and then top 5.
Shot at winning: 30%. There is and has never been
anything like it, and even response among casuals looks very strong. This is a
track with incredible production values and grabs viewers by the neck, not
letting up until its final note.
How bad was my prediction last year: 2023 and 2024 were kind of similar
years. In both years, their entries were beloved by the fandom but hugely
overestimated in my opinion. In both years, I went a little overboard with my
predictions and thought they wouldn’t qualify, whereas they did, but in the end
I felt slightly vindicated that both performed very poorly in the Grand Final.
To be fair, 2024’s Kaleen wasn’t helped by a broadcast mishap during her
performance.
--. United Kingdom
Entry: Remember Monday – What the hell just
happened?
Language: English
Quick description: Queen-inspired mid-tempo girly
banger
What came before? The UK has mostly been a Eurovision
laughing stock in modern ESC history, culminating in back-to-back last places
in 2019 and 2021 (the last of which even received the very first 'double nul'
score). 2022 offered relief with a well-deserved 2nd place and put
the notion to bed people won’t vote for British entries because they’re British.
Best British result so far: Won five times (1967, 1969, 1976,
1981, 1997), came 2nd 15(!) times (1959, 1960, 1961, 1964, 1965,
1968, 1970, 1975, 1977, 1988, 1989, 1992, 1993, 1998 and 2022) and 3rd
3 times (1973, 1980, 2002). The UK also came last 5 times (2003, 2008, 2010,
2019, 2021).
Opinion: I’m afraid this one will land well short of
expectations again. While the band exudes a carefree optimism and the song
feels authentically British, reminiscent of Queen-like ‘80s pop, I’m afraid
that the live version might come off chaotic and screechy. You’d think a
country with a music industry as massive as the United Kingdom would find ways
to prevent this, but it has consistently proven in the last 15 years that it
fails almost every ESC assignment. It is a bit funny (and probably
intentionally so) that ‘What the hell just happened?’ will come after an entry
that has its bombast dialed up to 11.
Snarky opinion: 30-somethings still pretending
they’re binge-drinking 20-somethings.
Prediction: Bottom 5. I know this is harsh and
I hope I’ll be proven wrong for the British’ sake, but I’m nowhere near as
optimistic as other analysts. A lot can be said about 2023’s Mae Muller and
2024’s Olly Alexander, but at least they had ambition. I’m not feeling that with
this entry at all.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: While I didn’t share the top 10
visions most analysts had and thought a right-hand table finish was likely,
even I hadn’t expected a bottom 5 result. The vocal wasn’t fully there and the
staging was perhaps a bit too sexualised for the audience at large.
07. Greece
Entry: Klavdia – Asteromáta
Language: Greek
Quick description: Melancholy ballad.
What came before? Greece's latter-day performances
have been pretty inconsistent. The wave they rode on from 2001 to 2013 (barring
some darker spots) seems to have abated, with the country relegated to subtop/middling
status.
Best Greek result so far: Won in 2005. Came 3rd
three times (2001, 2004 and 2008).
Qualification streak: +1
Opinion: A sweeping, epic ballad that feels true to
Greek culture, led by a very capable vocalist (who bears more than a passing
resemblance to Nana Moskouri). Greece doesn’t always stage well, but if it’s
done right, I can see this making an impact, and it is easily a higher-quality
offering than what we’re getting from Serbia and Montenegro. I honestly also
think it’s a better ballad than what France has wheeled out.
Snarky opinion: -
Prediction: Qualifying, but not by much. The
jury will show this love in the Grand Final.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly predicted qualification
and was pretty spot on about a left-side table finish.
08. Lithuania
Entry: Katarsis – Tavo akys
Language: Lithuanian
Quick description: Dark emo rock
What came before? I would say they are mostly regarded a mid-tier nation with occasional cracks at the sub-top. It’s the only Baltic nation not to have won Eurovision, but they have had a pretty good track record in the recent years.
Best Lithuanian result so far: 6th in 2006
Qualifcation streak: +4
Opinion: Very moody and sombre but not inaccessible.
It will certainly stand out and I believe there is an audience for this, plus
Lithuania reliably gets votes from its diaspora in the United Kingdom and
Ireland, which will help Katarsis as well. Ultimately, the question is if
enough of its target audience can be convinced. But I am part of that target
audience (I love dark, brooding and melancholy music with an edge) and I have
my doubts, especially about the very repetitive last minute.
Snarky opinion: Apocalyptic moaning that feels apt
for the hellworld we live in.
Prediction: Qualifying, then relegated to bottom
10.
Shot at winning: 0%.
How bad was my prediction last year: Nailed both qualification and
eventual result.
09. Malta
Entry: Miriana Conte – SERVING
Language: English
Quick description: Naughty girlybop
What came before? Malta's recent record is quite
spotty. They have a faint echo of the United Kingdom and Ireland's latter-day
troubles in often trying to engineer a winning entry but then
falling quite short. Around the early aughts there was buzz Malta was overdue
for a win, but that noise has faded, even with a brief blip for Destiny's 2021 entry, that failed to produce an expected
good result.
Best Maltese result so far: Came 2nd twice (2002,
2005), and 3rd twice (1992, 1998) as well.
Qualification streak: -3
Opinion: This is probably one of the only entries
casuals will have heard of during pre-season because it was originally named
‘Kant’ (Maltese for ‘singing’) and thus “serving kant” but the EBU requested
last-minute it remove that word for its obviously thinly-veiled double
entendre. Again, all quite apropos for the 69th edition of the
Contest. The entry itself is a fun bit of “yass queen” feminism and the fandom
eats it up.
Snarky opinion: Let’s send a sassy fat lady again
Prediction: Qualifying, then ending up bottom
10. I’m not trying to be disparaging here, Malta has had big trouble attracting
a sizable televote and failed to qualify with entries that were perfectly fine
songs, so qualification is the goal in and off itself. People who think this
might come top 5 while being aimed at a niche audience are delulu.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly saw the writing on the
wall that Sarah Bonnici wasn’t going to qualify but her last place in her Semi
was totally undeserved. Running order didn’t help.
10. Georgia
Entry: Mariam Shengelia – Freedom
Language: Georgian, English
Quick description: Old-fashioned and disjointed
ballad
What came before? If anything, Georgia tends to swing
for the fences uncompromisingly (avant-garde house, angsty art rock,
angry warrior songs, political disco, circus cabaret - basically Georgia has served
up the entire traditional back catalogue of ESC in one speed run!). That
deserves accolades, but the general audience hasn't been buying it.
Best Georgian result so far: 9th twice (2010, 2011).
Opinion: This unfortunately the typical product of a
country broadcaster cowed by an increasingly authoritarian and pro-Russian
regime: it’s always either bland kitsch braying about super-generic feelings
and values, or thinly-veiled propaganda, and this entry somehow manages to be
both. Mariam Shengelia is also known to be brazenly pro Georgian Dream, the
party that has self-couped its way to authoritarianism in 2024. Disregarding
all of that, the song feels abysmally dated, half-baked and much longer than
its actual runtime and not in a good way. Sure, Shengelia can sing well and she
looks very good, but this one is dead on arrival, arousing suspicions that it
will be the excuse for Georgia to withdraw from the ESC next year. This
convenient excuse is all the more helped by its shitty spot in the running
order, coming right before a much better ballad.
Snarky opinion: Kitschy dictatorship ballad
Prediction: Not qualifying, potentially coming
dead last in its Semi.
Shot at winning: -100%
How bad was my prediction last
year? I correctly
predicted Georgia would break its 6 NQ-streak.
--. France
Entry: Louane – Maman
Language: French
Quick description: Ballad
What came before? The last few years have revived
France as an ESC participant who seems ardent to go for its 6th win,
especially after riding a wave of success in the JESC. I think France looms a
bit larger in the minds of the enfranchised audience, and is often stuck in the
unenviable position that the public seems to expect very stereotypically French
entries (while brutally punishing the ones who don’t conform to the stereotype)
but not always reward it with their votes.
Best French result so far: Won 5 times (1958, 1960, 1962,
1969, 1977), came 2nd 5 times (1957, 1976, 1990, 1991 and 2021) and
came 3rd 7 times (1959, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1978, 1980 and 1981).
Opinion: Apparently this ballad about mums and
motherhood really connects with a lot of people. While I agree it is the right
mix of emotion and bombast at many points, I find the chorus to drag on for waaaay
too long, and I hope France won’t repeat their weird staging mistakes of 2023 –
this is a song that calls for intimate, subtle staging, not for the reveal they
had during a rugby game at the Stade de France. Some analysts think this might
win (as they thought in 2021, 2023 and 2024) but I personally don’t think it
will. It for sure outshines the earlier ballads in this Semi though, which
hurts the chances of Montenegro, Greece and Georgia, even if people can’t vote
for France in this Semi.
Snarky opinion: Cliché ballad by France’s version
of Adele
Prediction: Top 10
Shot at winning: 2%
How bad was my prediction last year: Kind of right. I had Slimane pegged for a top 15 spot, but he came 4th.
11. Denmark
Entry: Sissal – Hallucination
Language: English
Quick description: Scandi mid-tempo house
What came before? Denmark has generally been on a downward trend since winning the ESC for the last time in 2013. Their broadcaster consistently refuses to put in the proper work, especially at staging, and seems to not have gotten the memo it's no longer 2013.
Best Danish result so far: Won twice (2000, 2013), came 2nd
once (2001) and came 3rd two times (1988, 1989).
Qualification streak: -4
Opinion: I can actually copy-paste my 2024 opinion
with little change: “Yes, the lyrics are kind of trite, but I like the overall
composition of this song, the vocal sounds strong and the performer has some
live stage presence. 'Hallucination' is an offering that would have shot to the
top of the odds 10 years ago, but in a packed Contest like 2025, it may not
stand out, and there are worries about potentially static staging. That the
track liberally borrows from Loreen's signature style and sound is secondary.”
Snarky opinion: How to rip-off Loreen while
totally not ripping off Loreen for the second time!
Prediction: Not qualifying if they don’t make
huge changes to the staging.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: I thought Denmark would scrape by
an qualify, but they didn’t.
12. Czechia
Entry: ADONXS – Kiss kiss goodbye
Language: English
Quick description: Mid-tempo ballad
What came before? Czechia has yet to make any real
impact on Eurovision, having only participated since 2007. Some of its entries
have received modest hype, and the trendline looks mostly positive.
Best Czech result so far: 6th place in 2018.
Qualification streak: -1
Opinion: A lot has been said about the fact that this
song clearly needs to be experienced live during a show because it was created
for that purpose, and I can buy that. ADONXS will stand out no matter what as
the only male performer preceded by three female performers and succeeded by
three female performers, so his running order is incredibly favourable. All in
all, this song does nothing for me. I don’t hate it, but it feels like it was
designed in a lab and has no actual meaning or emotion behind it.
Snarky opinion: Hot guy with a pedo moustache
sings an AI-designed thing
Prediction: Until I see proof Czechia’s
pulling out all the stops in their staging and execution, I think this could be
a shock NQ.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly predicted NQ, but it’s
not like Czechia didn’t try, and they honestly might have deserved to qualify
for all the effort they put in.
13. Luxembourg
Entry: Laura Thorn – La poupée mont le son
Language: French
Quick description: Girlybop
What came before? Luxembourg came back to the ESC last
year after a 31-year absence. The EBU rewarded them for this (and also the fat
wads of cash they bring) by giving them one of the best slots to celebrate it. This
makes it all the more sour that Montenegro wasn’t offered anything of the sort
this year, but I digress.
Best Luxembourgian result so far: Won 5 times (1961, 1965, 1972,
1973, 1983), came 3rd twice (1962, 1986). They also came last 3
times (1958, 1960, 1970).
Qualification record: +1
Opinion: Once again the EBU gods have decided to grant
Luxembourg a favourable running order, but it will also be (kind of)
Luxembourg’s moment of truth now that the sheen of its return has waned off and
they can’t ride the coattails of Israel support (last year’s contestant was
Israeli). I like their entry. It’s a pastiche of French pop from the 1960s to
the 1980s with a fresh coat of paint, and Laura Thorn can obviously sing well
and has stage presence. The homage to their 1965 win will also not be lost on
the enfranchised audience. It’s not very original though, and perhaps
Luxembourg had been better served by sending their darker version of the song.
Snarky opinion: French JESC entry.
Prediction: Qualification, then right-hand
side of the scoring table.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly predicted qualification
but I did think it would do worse in the GF.
--. Germany
Entry: Abor & Tynna – Baller
Language: German
Quick description: German EDM
What came before? Germany's been on a long string of
disappointing results with a kind of airy "throw things at the wall and
see what sticks" vibe. Last year offered reprieve with an unexpected 12th
place.
Best German result so far: Won twice (1982 and 2010), 2nd
place 4 times (1980, 1981, 1985, 1987) and 3rd place 5 times (1970,
1971, 1972, 1994, 1999). They also came last 9 times. For a country with its
pedigree of participations, results have been very underwhelming since the
early 1980s.
Opinion: ‘Baller’ is Germany’s first entry in German
in 18 years and the 2nd one in 5 years I actually really like,
highlighting an ongoing trend of countries going back to their native
language(s) to participate. It’s a fresh, youthful and current bit of EDM pop
offering that also feels true to Germany’s home music scene. There are a few
doubts about the main vocal (although it isn’t particularly demanding), but
normally Germany should be able to follow through on its unexpected top 15
placement with Isaak last year.
Snarky opinion: Scantily clad young lady
destroying music instrument for no reason
Prediction: Top 15. I honestly think it should
score even higher, but this is Germany we’re talking about so caution is
advised.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: I predicted bottom 10 but Germany
surprised everyone, even with its weird staging and pretty mid song, by coming
12th and picking up some jury love. So I’ve been wrong about Germany
for two years in a row now.
14. Israel
Why are you ignoring Israel's entry?
Israel is
committing genocide in Gaza and to a lesser extent on the West Bank, is
acquiring the trappings of an illiberal, fascist state, and even before that,
it had already become a racist Apartheid nation. It’s an utter disgrace it is
still allowed to participate in Eurovision. Continued silence among Europe’s
leading political class is even worse and makes most European countries tacit
accomplices in Israel’s genocide.
Okay, but it’s a song contest and
it’s ostensibly a non-political event? Eurovision is probably the biggest political
event of the year in Europe that swears it’s not political. Also, Russia was
yeeted from the Contest in 2022 for its second invasion of Ukraine, and Belarus
alongside it for good measure, even if Belarus has factually committed far less
evil than Israel has.
Israel is participating
though, so couldn’t you at least treat their entry like all the others? No. It seized its participation last
year to engage in a worldwide campaign among reactionaries and right-wing
ghouls to rake in as many televote points as it could (which is not illegal,
but speaks volumes about the bad faith with which it is now in the ESC). Its
broadcaster and delegation was known for constantly harassing and disparaging
candidates from countries known to be critical of Israel (notably Ireland and
Spain). To put the cherry on top of the shit cake, Joost Klein was disqualified
for what seems to be a non-incident after the fact, while Israel only got the
most milquetoast of slaps on the wrist for behaving much worse. While I have no
proof, I think the incident to get Joost Klein disqualified was either also
instigated or blown out of proportion by the Israeli delegation. Even with some
new guardrails in place, I’m 99.9% sure Israel is going to try their
manipulation and crybullying (= pretending you're the victim while you're actually the bully) tactics again.
Shouldn't you judge the song on its
own merits, disregarding politics? Yuval Raphael has chosen to go, she wasn't
forced. Even in unfree countries like Azerbaijan, most performers can still
choose not to participate in ESC without dire consequences.
About that, why aren't you coming
down on those countries? Most of them no longer participate. The only real sore point here is
Azerbaijan’s invasion of Artsakh in 2024, but there are two major differences
that are both geopolitical and human: Artsakh was never recognised
by any government and its status was mostly the result of Armenia waging war
on Azerbaijan in the 1990s. And second, no one died. Not to say that it
wasn't ethnic cleansing (it was!), but I can't see how this stacks up to over 50,000
Gazan civilians killed in 1,5 years, many among them children.
Sure, but Israel's neighbours would
like to basically do a Holocaust 2.0. They do. Does that justify murdering children, journalists and bombing humanitarian aid convoys, though? You could say bad dudes like the
ayatollahs or Mohammad bin-Salman would happily do the same, but they're
dictators. If we're going to compare like for like, Israel's government at
least has some degree of popular legitimacy. That is why war crimes committed
by ostensibly democratic governments are so much worse - their
populations could choose not to vote these thugs into office,
but they do. Even if you believe Israel has a right to exist (which
isn't unreasonable if you think of what happened in World War II), the fact
that Israel blithely ignores its UN-imposed 1947 borders, kills journalists,
blocks and bombs humanitarian aid convoys as well as wantonly kills children should
tell you we're dealing with a bad actor here.
Prediction: Booed throughout. Probably
qualifying, but I don’t think the right-wing idiot support is going to turn out
as strongly as it did last year, what with Israel’s genocide having become
undeniable.
Shot at winning: 0%.
How bad was my prediction last
year? I
correctly predicted Eden Golan would be booed throughout her entire
performance, but I had no idea the EBU has been employing anti-booing
technology since the mid-tens (first used to cover Russian entries). This adds
another level to the shame and disgrace. It also does nothing for the
performer, who can still clearly hear the whole arena’s hostility and vitriol.
This really is North Korea-style censorship.
My man, why not just boycott the
entire show? See
my first blog post of this season.
15. Serbia
Entry: Princ – Mila
Language: Serbian
Quick description: Musical theatre ballad
What came before? Serbia won the Eurovision Song
Contest on its first entry as an independent nation in 2007, with Marija Šerifović's 'Molitva'. Serbia tended to do pretty well
after, usually qualifying for the final, with latter-day entries showing a
really versatile and exciting side of Serbia's music scene. Serbia has one of
the longest current qualification streaks.
Best Serbian result so far: Won once (2007), came 3rd
once (2012).
Qualification streak: +6
Opinion: After years of getting crap running order
slots, the EBU decided to give a little gift to Serbia. And they’ll need it in
a Semi already jam-packed with ballads. There are no doubts about Princ’s vocal
abilities but he could be outstaged by more memorable entries if they bring
better staging. All in all, this isn’t for me but I do believe there is an
audience for this kind of rather schmalzy pathos.
Snarky opinion: Big burly musical theatre version
of 'Molitva'.
Prediction: Qualifying, then ending mid-table.
Shot at winning: 0%.
How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly predicted qualification.
16. Finland
Entry: Erika Vikman – Ich komme
Language: English, German
Quick description: Horny EDM
What came before? While often qualifying for the
Grand Final, Finland usually strands there unceremoniously mid-table. Finland
has tried out all manner of genres, artists and vibes, but seems to score best
with rock and metal, which is unsurprising, since the country has the highest
density of metal bands per 1,000 inhabitants.
Best Finnish result so far: Won once (2006) with
fondly-remembered monster rockers Lordi, who arguably ushered in the prelude to ESC's
current Golden Age. Came 2nd once, too, with the memorable Käärijä
(2023).
Qualification streak: +4
Opinion: What better song to close the horniest ESC on
its 69th edition than this (“Ich komme” means “I’m cumming” in
German)? It’s a spectacular, fun and high-energy entry that should do quite
well if Erika can keep her vocal under control. In the UMK final it sounded a
little shaky at the beginning. Some have pegged (pun unintended) it as a
potential winner.
Snarky opinion: Conservatives’ Nordic nightmare.
Prediction: Qualifying and then top 5.
Shot at winning: 2% if it comes together live
really well. It will get televote love for sure, but I’m uncertain about the
jury.
So who's qualifying
I will revisit my predictions once I've seen some rehearsal and pre-party footage, but as it stands, I think this is the most likely list of qualifiers, in no particular order:
- Finland
- Greece
- Australia
- Malta
- Austria
- Latvia
- Lithuania
- Serbia
- Ireland
- Czechia
