With each country, I'll also compare
with my predictions of last year.
01. Iceland
Entry: Væb – Róa
Language: Icelandic
Quick description: Energetic sea shanty
What came before? Iceland has been more willing to
experiment than other Scandinavian countries, sometimes to their detriment.
They have generally been re-cast into a favourable spotlight with the general
audience after - believe it or not - 2019's divisive but uncompromising Hattari and the calculated hipster awkwardness
of Daði Freyr. They've since switched back to
safer entries though. Also to their detriment, I might add, with now two consecutive
NQs.
Best Icelandic result so far: Came 2nd in 1999 and
2009.
Qualification streak: -2
Opinion: Væb exude a youthful, free spirit and are
engaging with the ESC fandom very much, which has endeared them to it. That
they’re opening Semi 1 is not a gift, but it doesn’t leave them without
chances. I don’t think their entry will bore people, but if staged badly, it
will come off as amateuristic and might confirm some casuals who don’t enjoy
the ESC that the Contest is still an expensive, campy show with sub-par, weird
acts.
Snarky opinion: Iceland said: “Let the kids
fail this time”
Prediction: Borderline qualifier.
Shot at winning: 0%.
How bad was my prediction last year: Spot-on. Hera Björk came last in her semi with only a measly 3 points.
02. Poland
Entry: Justyne Steczkowska – GAJA
Language: Polish, English, Old Slavonic
Quick description: Bombastic summoning of the Earth
goddess at its finest
What came before? Poland has had a bit of a jobber
image for the past 15 years at the contest, with entries all over the place,
but rarely ending up in a good place. Population-wise, it’s the biggest country
never to have won the ESC.
Best Polish result so far: 2nd place in 1994, on
their very first participation.
Qualification streak: -1
Opinion: If you like ESC camp and bombast, this is
your entry to latch onto. But it’s more than that: it showcases Steczkowska’s
powerful vocals, stage presence, fitness (it’s really hard to believe
this woman is 52 years old!) and sense of drama. Its atmosphere reminds me a
little of ‘Wild Dances’ but more grown-up. I do think the “mum dancing” bits of
the national final performance should be binned though.
Snarky opinion: Every ESC cliché balled into one
package.
Prediction: While the EBU did Poland dirty by
giving it the infamous death slot (and after Steczkowska, who already competed
in 1995, had to go first back then!), I don’t see why it shouldn’t qualify.
Shot at winning: 5%. I don’t understand how this
entry doesn’t come up more in discussions about potential winners in what looks
to be a very open year.
How bad was my prediction last year: While initially on the fence, I
eventually concluded Poland would likely not qualify and I was right. And
already mediocre entry wasn’t helped by typical TVP “overstaging” and a pretty
brittle vocal.
03. Slovenia
Entry: Klemen – How much time do we have left?
Language: English
Quick description: Ballad about a kid with cancer –
as one does
What came before? Slovenia's record is a pretty bleak one. They don't carry the
best image to ESC, and frankly never did. The fandom desperately wants them to
do well.
Best Slovenian result so far: 7th two times (1995,
2001).
Qualification streak: +2
Opinion: Casuals will never be able to guess that
Klemen is actually a comedian in his home country. While it luckily does come
off as a genuine entry about his wife being diagnosed with cancer, in the back
of my head, tackling incredibly serious topics mostly lived by someone else
(I’m looking at you, Hungary 2014, with your song about incest) can’t help but
feel a little exploitative and tear-jerky. As far as ballads go, it’s not a bad
one and Klemen’s a good-looking guy, but this Semi is already overrun with
good-looking men.
Snarky opinion: Ballad for sentimental wine mums.
Prediction: Not qualifying. What small chances
it had were murdered by its running order. Slovenia also has a pretty bad
record at staging.
Shot at winning: 0%.
How bad was my prediction last year: Almost completely correct, though
Raiven’s GF result was slightly worse than I had anticipated.
04. Estonia
Entry: Tommy Cash
Language: Italian, English, Spanish
Quick description: Pastiche of Italian ditties
What came before? Barring a dry spell between 2004 and
2008, Estonia has been a pretty reliable performer at Eurovision, often
breaking into the top 10 but just as often floundering in the Grand Finals.
Best Estonian result so far: Won in 2002, 3rd in
2003.
Qualification streak: +3
Opinion: Tommy Cash is probably the most well-known
Estonian musician in Europe (and is also friends with previous alumni Joost
Klein and Käärijä) and while ‘Espresso macchiato’ is amusing, Cash will really
need to up the ante staging-wise to make good on his claim that he’s going
for Estonia’s 2nd win, because the national finals performance felt
sloppy and a little arrogant. The song itself to me thinks it’s funnier than it
really is and the weird Italian/Spanish mixed phrases may come off as ignorant
or borderline racist to either country.
Snarky opinion: Bad parody of Italian music
Prediction: Qualifying
Shot at winning: 1% because it’s a very competitive
year.
How bad was my prediction last year: I was wrong. After some dithering
I thought 5minuust & Puulluup wouldn’t qualify, but they did and by a
decent margin.
--. Spain
Entry: Melody – ESA DIVA
Language: Spanish
Quick description: Spanish, well, diva song
What came before? After almost 20 years of languishing
in the desert of near-bottom and bottom-tier entries, Spain surprisingly
reinvented itself in 2022, then immediately went downhill again.
Best Spanish result so far: Won twice (1968, 1969), came 2nd
4 times (1971, 1973, 1979, 1995) and came 3rd twice (1984, 2022).
Opinion: Bland, run-off-the-mill Spanish pop affair.
Melody does have some charisma and the entry’s revamp made it a little more
competitive, but I wonder who the audience for this track is. Last year’s entry
also felt dated but at least it had a message. I also hope Melody doesn’t
repeat her “helicopter hair” stunt from Benidorm Fest, only to then
ridiculously claim it’s a “Spanish culture” thing after facing mockery for it.
This gimmick could have gotten Spain some votes back in the early aughts, but
now I think not so much.
Snarky opinion: Time machine to the summer of
2002.
Prediction: Bottom 10
Shot at winning: 0%
How wrong was I last year? I predicted bottom 10 for Spain last
year, too, and I was completely correct.
05. Ukraine
Entry: Ziferblat – Bird of pray
Language: Ukrainian, English
Quick description: 60s prog rock
What came before? Ukraine is a Eurovision superpower
on par with Sweden and Italy. Its image looms large with even the casual
Eurovision viewer, discounting the terrible war the country finds itself in.
Ukraine is a country that seems to understand the modern
Festival at its core. Since entering the contest in 2003, they have
never not qualified for the Grand Final.
Best Ukrainian result so far: Won 3 times (2004, 2016, 2022),
came 2nd twice (2007, 2008) and 3rd twice (2013, 2024).
Qualification streak: +14 (barring two wins)
Opinion: Discounting the awkward wordplay of the
title, I personally like the power, artistry and complexity of this entry. Ziferblat
oozes charisma and the song manages to command attention throughout its entire
run. It is a more divisive entry than usual though: some people seem to find it
too loud and disjointed, but I think that’s on them.
Snarky opinion: How many songs can you keep
crafting about war?
Prediction: Qualifying, then left hand of the
scoreboard.
Shot at winning: 1%.
How bad was my prediction last year: Pretty good but underestimated a
little. I gave them 2% chance to win and they came 3rd.
06. Sweden
Entry: KAJ – Bara bada bastu
Language: Swedish
Quick description: Swedish schlager about going to
the sauna
What came before? Since 2011, Sweden has replaced
Ireland as the country to beat. They now occupy a joint 1st place in
the all-time rankings since their 7th win last year, and also equal
Ireland for the record of the same artist winning the Contest twice.
Best Swedish result so far: Won 7 times (1974, 1984, 1991,
1999, 2012, 2015, 2023), came 2nd once (1966) and 3rd 6
times (1983, 1985, 1995, 1996, 2011 and 2014).
Qualification streak: +10 (barring three wins)
Opinion: This is an instantly fun offering free of any
pretense or the usual, calculated Swedish pop perfection and a refreshing
change of pace (although its eventual win in Melodifestivalen was a shock that
didn’t go down well with some other contestants). There is heartfelt joy in
this entry, as well as a nice representation of Nordic culture. Doubly fun that
it took Swedish-speaking Finns for Sweden to finally send another entry in
their native language.
Snarky opinion: Swedish carnival music.
Prediction: Top 5.
Shot at winning: 5%. This one has a decent chance
of winning the televote. I think the bookies are overestimating its chances a
little overall, but I’m not discounting it being a potential winner.
How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly predicted Marcus &
Martinus would qualify.
07. Portugal
Entry: NAPA - Deslocado
Language: Portuguese
Quick description: Portuguese indie
What came before? Portugul is still riding the ripples
of their win in 2017 but later entries seem to have fallen back into the fold
of middling results.
Best Portuguese result so far: Won once (2017). Portugal also
came last 4 times, though (1964, 1974, 1997 and 2018).
Qualification record: +4
Opinion: One of the few entries that looks dead on arrival. Everything is beige about this: the vocals, the music, even the stage outfits. Unless they dramatically change the staging, I don’t see this snoozefest going anywhere. It isn’t a bad song per se, just very forgettable. And yes, for the Flemings reading this, the singer really looks a lot like Jelle De Beule (João Debulo?).
Snarky opinion: ‘Beige’, the song.
Prediction: Not qualifying.
Shot at winning: 0%.
How bad was my prediction last year: I correctly predicted Portugal
would qualify.
08. Norway
Entry: Kyle Alessandro – Lighter
Language: English
Quick description: Scandi powerpop
What came before? They may not like to hear it, but
Norway is kind of Sweden's eccentric little brother. Barring 2016, they've made
every final since 2013, but before that lies a record littered with very, very mixed
results. Still, they are known as a competent and quirky country. Their current
+7 qualification record is one of the strongest in the Contest.
Best Norwegian result so far: Won 3 times (1985, 1995, 2009).
They also came dead last a staggering 12 times, which is still the
ESC record.
Qualification streak: +7
Opinion: It’s almost a miracle we got this out of a
very weak preselection. The song itself is a little generic, up to and
including its dance break, which has become a real thing in the past few years,
but it is saved by a charismatic performer with stage chops and the inclusion
of some folk instrumentation.
Snarky opinion: An Alexander Rybak for the TikTok
age.
Prediction: Qualifying, then ending up halfway.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: I did correctly predict
qualification but thought Gåte would at least reach mid-table – they came last
instead. After the undeserved last place of Germany’s Lord of the Lost in 2023,
it really proved neither jury or public can appreciate well-crafted metal music
(unless you give it a ‘70s or ‘80s twist), which is a God-damn shame.
09. Belgium
Entry: Red Sebastian – Strobe lights
Language: English
Quick description: Rave
What came before? Disclaimer - I am Belgian. Anyway,
Belgium's recent ESC history has been spotty, which isn't helped by the annual
switch between Flemish and Walloon broadcasters selecting an entry. Still,
there is a kooky legacy image with Telex, Pas de Deux and Urban Trad, who proudly continued Belgium's
tradition of surrealism writ large.
Best Belgian result so far: Won in 1986, came 2nd in
2003, but also came last 8 times.
Qualification streak: -1
Opinion: This is a solid offering with a strong vocal
that also fronts actual Belgian culture with this type of rave/techno music.
Unfortunately, it’s done dirty by its running order spot and faces brutal
competition in its Semi from entries occupying or overlapping similar spaces
(the vocal, the genre, the bombast). It probably helps a little that the
Netherlands are in the same Semi, but Red Sebastian will need to bring his A
game in staging, something both Belgian broadcasters have traditionally not
been incredible at. That, or hoping Cyprus’s entry will helplessly flounder.
Snarky opinion: Dead Sebastian?
Prediction: Qualifying but not by much. I need
to believe.
Shot at winning: 0%. That the bookies had this at
the #1 spot at the beginning of the season was a freak anomaly.
How bad was my prediction last
year? I was
completely wrong. While I did think chances of qualification for Mustii were
growing dimmer and dimmer as the Semi approached, he unfortunately gave one of
his Semi’s worst performances.
--. Italy
Entry: Lucio Corsi – Voleve essere un duro
Language: Italian
Quick description: Classic rock ballad
What came before? After re-entering Eurovision in
2011, Italy definitively buried the notion the Big Four (henceforth Five) don't
perform well because people don't like them. They were just bad, and Italy
called them out on it. With 12 out of 14 entries reaching the top 10 since
their re-entry, Italy stand as one of the current-day Eurovision superpowers.
Best Italian result so far: Won 3 times (1964, 1990 and 2021),
2nd place 3 times (1974, 2011, 2019) and 3rd place 5
times (1958, 1963, 1975, 1987, 2015). 1958's third-placed 'Nel blu, dipinto di blu' is apparently also the world's
most-covered song.
Opinion: This song is not for me. While not as
forgettable as Portugal’s, Lucio’s distinct appearance makes it seem like he’s
about to seriously rock out, only to deliver a kind of lullaby. Last year, I
bitterly complained that there is a Eurovision cohort that would vote for Italy
even if they sent a trashcan singing in Italian, so I wonder if this will save
it from oblivion. I’m not saying this is a bad song, it’s just tepid,
conservative fare we’ve heard dozens of times before.
Snarky opinion: Elton John Eltonio Gianni
Prediction: Could be Italy’s first right-hand
scoreboard result in a long time.
Shot at winning: 0%.
How bad was my prediction last
year? Pretty
decent, I even gave Angelina Mango a chance at winning, but she ended up 7th.
10. Azerbaijan
Entry: Mamagama - Run with u
Language: English
Quick description: Oriental electropop
What came before? Azerbaijan used to send smart
entries that are in tune with Eurovision's mood and temperature (although there
have been credible allegations of cheating in their heyday). They have hit a
bit of a snag recently.
Best Azeri result so far: Won once (2011), came 2nd
once (2013) and came 3rd once
(2009).
Qualification streak: -2
Opinion: It’s a nice entry, even if it pretty
obviously rips off Daft Punk’s ‘Lucky’, with an upbeat energy and a nice
sprinkle of traditional snares. A lot will depend on how it’s staged and since
the Azeris are usually cagey with their live performances and stage ideas,
we’ll have to wait and see until the last moment.
Snarky opinion: Draft Punk.
Prediction: I’m on the fence about this one,
especially considering I’ve been wrong about Azerbaijan for two years in a row
(predicted qualification both times).
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: Thought they would qualify (but
not by much), but it was a very clear NQ.
11. San Marino
Entry: Gabry Ponte – Tutta l’Italia
Language: Italian
Quick description: Italian tarantella bop
What came before? I'm convinced San Marino's
participations are a ploy by the microstate's Office of Tourism. With only 3
qualifications out of 14 performances and three last places in these NQs,
things don't look very encouraging, unfortunately.
Best Sammarinese result so far: 19th in 2019. Yeah.
Qualification streak: -3
Opinion: This is an incredibly infectious and
unpretentious bop brought to you by one of the minds behind Eiffel 65’s ‘Blue’.
It was this year’s theme song of the San Remo festival and it’s already popular
in Italy – Italy can also vote in this Semi. But will it be enough? San Marino
never enjoys any favours from the audience at large, and it could be that a DJ
taking centre stage while some anon sings the words next to it are too
unattractive to kill even a super cute offering like this.
Snarky opinion: “For the love of God Italy,
finally give your little brother some points!”
Prediction: Qualifying.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: I thought Megara would just manage
to scrape by, but they weren’t even close to qualifying.
12. Albania
Entry: Shkodra Elektronike – Zjerm
Language: Albanian
Quick description: Balkan indietronica
What came before? While Eurovision's enfranchised
audience has embraced Albania as one of those countries that offer entries
truer to their native culture, this has never translated into good results,
with a pretty spotty qualification record. Albania tends to be along for the
ride, do the minimum to qualify and that's it.
Best Albanian result so far: 5th in 2012.
Qualification streak: -1
Opinion: This is a unique entry that tries to do
something different for a change – a very modern indietronica composition with
some ethnic elements and a frontwoman who for once isn’t a voluptuous, dramatic
belter. It will not be to everyone’s taste, but it has a very distinct identity
that makes it stand out. Plus, finally Albania’s been given a decent running
order after a few pretty dreary years.
Snarky opinion: -
Prediction: Qualifying.
Shot at winning: 1% if all the stars miraculously
align, but chances are incredibly small.
How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly predicted they wouldn’t
qualify.
13. The Netherlands
Entry: Claude - C'est la vie
Language: French, English
Quick description: Mid-tempo modern pop
What came before? The Netherlands have comfortably
nested themselves into the top and sub-top spaces in the past 10 years, and are
now experiencing a second ESC Golden Age after the 1970s. Last year’s
disqualification of Joost Klein on the eve of the Grand Final was a shocking
disgrace to the EBU, considering all the shit that Israel pulled that very same
year. I hope they can catch a break this year after two consecutive years of
drama with their delegation.
Best Dutch result so far: Won 5 times (1957, 1959, 1969,
1975 and 2019) and came 2nd once (2014) as well as 3rd once
(1974). Duncan Lawrence is the only ESC winner to have held the title for two
consecutive years, even on a technicality, but it would be unfair to say that's
the only reason he's ascended to the Eurovision pantheon. The Netherlands are
also the only country ever to get disqualified while the contest was ongoing
(2024).
Qualification streak: +1
Opinion: I understand why this one appeals to many
people, but I’m not a fan. It’s a well-composed song but it rips off Stromae a
bit too closely for comfort (which France attempted unsuccessfully already) in
styling and its official video. The French parts of Claude’s lyrics sound
cliché and trite, and the man has an odd Dutch twang in his French (although
presumably it is one of his mother languages?). I realise all of the above
could only ever be the opinion of someone from Belgium and most viewers will look
past this and just enjoy it.
Snarky opinion: “But we have Stromae at home”.
Prediction: Qualifying, then top 10 or even
top 5.
Shot at winning: 1%, not counting it out if its
momentum keeps rising and others fail.
How bad was my prediction last year: I did predict qualification, but
could never have been predicted the chaos that would follow. There are people
who think Joost would have won the contest last year, but I don’t think so at
all. His performance, while high-energy, was a bit sloppy and at times he was
visibly out of breath. The juries would have sunk this.
14. Croatia
Entry: Marko Bošnjak – Poison cake
Language: English
Quick description: Dark comedic musical theatre
What came before? Croatia has had middling ESC results
at best in the past 15 years, with its sole standout last year, where Baby
Lasagne came 2nd.
Best Croatian result so far: 2nd place in 2024.
Qualification streak: +2
Opinion: I think there are lots of interesting ideas
here and the song certainly commands attention, but the execution is going to
be very difficult to get right. Some have compared it to last year’s ‘Doomsday Blue’ but that song was more clever and almost through-composed, whereas here
it feels more like separate ideas are thrown on top of each other and then
repeated. If this goes badly, especially with the screams at the end, it has
the potential to become memorable for all the wrong reasons and end up unintentionally
funny.
Snarky opinion: What if JESC allowed an entry
about killing someone?
Prediction: Unless the staging and execution
is top notch, this won’t qualify.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: Correct. I gave Baby Lasagne a 20%
to win it and he came 2nd.
--. Switzerland
Entry: Zoë Më – Voyage
Language: French
Quick description: Purestrain ballad
What came before? Switzerland has been ascendant in
the ESC in the past decade, barring the occasional blip.
Best Swiss result so far: Won three times (1956, 1988, 2024),
came 2nd three times (1958, 1963, 1968) and came 3rd 4
times (1961, 1982, 1993 and 2021). Switzerland also came last 5 times and was
the first country to score 'nul points' in a Semi-Final with the now
infamous Piero & The Music Stars' awful vocals, the lead vocalist
slapping himself in the face with his microphone and his screechy, sinister
laugh near the end.
Qualification streak: +5
Opinion: A typical host entry that doesn’t have a lot
of ambition. It’s a sweet and endearing song, but that’s about it. I also find
it a bit dodgy the hosts gave themselves such a great spot in the running
order, but it’s not disallowed, I guess.
Snarky opinion: “Let’s make sure we don’t
accidentally win again.”
Prediction: Bottom 10.
Shot at winning: 0%
How bad was my prediction last year: Like Croatia, I gave the Swiss a
20% chance of winning, and they won.
15. Cyprus
Entry: Theo Evan – Shh
Language: English
Quick description: Eurodance
What came before? Many people are aware Cyprus would
really like to win the ESC one day. Since their 2nd place in 2018,
they've mostly been churning out vaguely Mediterranean pop bops, but with
somewhat diminishing returns.
Best Cypriot result so far: 2nd in 2018. Cyprus
holds the record for most performances without a single win - standing at 41
years now.
Qualification streak: +2
Opinion: Production-wise, I think this offering is
Cyprus’s strongest in a few years. It’s getting a massive boon by dint
of being last in the running order and so after Belgium’s, which puts it into a
better position vis à vis that entry. It also hired Sergio Jaen (the stage
director of last year’s ‘Doomsday Blue’) to do the staging, so there are great
expectations, but it will all hinge on Theo’s live vocal and performance.
Snarky opinion: AI-generated top 10
junk.
Prediction: As it stands I think this is
qualifying even when the vocal won’t be superb due to its slot in the running
order and the staging.
Shot at winning: 0%.
How bad was my prediction last year: I correctly predicted Silia Kapsis
would qualify, although a lot of other analysts had serious doubts.
So who's qualifying?
I will revisit my predictions once I've seen some rehearsal and pre-party footage, but as it stands, I think this is the most likely list of qualifiers, in no particular order:
- Ukraine
- Sweden
- Poland
- Albania
- San Marino
- The Netherlands
- Norway
- Estonia
- Belgium
- Cyprus
