So the semis have now come and gone. I correctly predicted 16/20 finalists, just like last year, but better than 2023, where I had 15/20 correct. Once again, this means I did slightly better than random. Feel free to mock me for this, though I should note I did just as well (or as bad) as an amalgamation of 10 betting companies.
General observations
I'm going to quote myself from last year because much of it still rings true: "The past decade has seen the quality of entries on a steady rise. The early naughts are starting to look like a foreign land and entries that could have comfortably qualified a decade ago are now fiercely competing against entries of a similar quality. I realise that part of this is caused by less committed and/or less well-financed countries leaving the Contest, but even countries backed by fewer resources [...] bring at least respectable entries and shows. [...] Unless an entry brings the party or does something novel, even a partially bad vocal is now a death knell. Running order still matters, but its importance is a little exaggerated." Note how this year in Semi 1, the last two entries didn't qualify and more qualifications came from the second half, while in Semi 2 there was an even split.
"Obvious DOA entries are getting rarer" - 2025 had just one (initially two to my mind, but Portugal qualified), 2024 had one, both 2023 and 2022 had three, 2021 had two whereas 2019 at least had five of six DOAs. The technological sophistication of the show is also at an all-time high and will continue to rise. Audiences from as little as two decades ago would probably be utterly shocked by the possibilities of what can be done with today's lighting, screening and projection technology.
Other notes
Shock NQs
The big one here is Belgium. This now means Belgium has the unenviable label of having had three shock NQs in less than a decade (2018, 2023 and 2025). In 2018 and 2023, it was easy to see why it happened: reasonably strong songs sabotaged by bad staging and/or bad vocals. This year is different. Insiders, press and bookies were roaring about the staging, the song seemed solid and the vocal was impressive. We will never know completely what made it derail and it's hard to offer more explanations until we see the full points from Semi 1. My current hypothesis is that circumstances would have always made it harder for Belgium than usual: a very male-dominated Semi as well as competition from Cyprus, who came with an entry in a similar genre and with similarly intricate staging. It may well be that Belgium and Cyprus stole points from one another.
Plus, it has to be said: the audience is sometimes turned off by entries the bubble loves for its go-hard artistry but rocket past casuals who find them too intense. I'm thinking of Spain in 2023 or Norway in 2024. Still, Austria qualified this year (but we don't know yet by how much).
Cyprus was a shock NQ vis à vis the odds but makes perfect sense in hindsight. All season the Cypriot delegation seemed anxious to hide Theo Evan from the pre-party circuit or only wheeled him out in very managed and limited settings. His vocal was too thin and the work-out in his intricate staging also didn't help. To a lesser extent, Australia has a similar story. While Go-Jo put in decent performances on the pre-party circuit and in rehearsals, he looked frazzled and his vocal was off for a good deal of the performance. The staging was way, way better than the lumpy and thoughtless show Australia put on last year though.
Czechia is one of the cases where I should have gone with my gut, but I had already risked following my instinct with Armenia (which turned out to be completely correct!). The hype around Czechia was always more about Adonxs' charisma and abilities and less about the song. I already said in my pre-analysis that 'Kiss kiss goodbye' was more of a song that needed to be seen rather than heard, and while its execution wasn't bad, it was middling in a very competitive Semi with much stronger vocal participants than in Semi 1.
Well well well, if that isn't the consequences of my actions!
I hope Czechia's NQ isn't their cue to withdraw. Interest in ESC has always been low in the nation, and the Contest's been steadily bleeding participant nations in the past years, especially from Central-, Eastern and Southeastern Europe. There's a reasonable case to suggest Azerbaijan might withdraw as well after a three-NQ streak, but I think we could do without another dictatorship. Georgia's entry almost looked designed as an excuse to withdraw in 2026 but we'll see. I would be sad if Montenegro disappeared again, and while their entry was never very competitive, the EBU almost seemed to go out of its way to make it harder for them by putting Nina in the death slot.
Second, I also hope the three shock NQs this decade won't become a millstone around Belgium's neck in the coming years, with all attendant self-defeating anxieties. After Red Sebastian didn't qualify, in some corners of the media I saw ugly conspirational thinking from the early naughts rear their ugly head again. Belgians by and large already lack nationalist self-confidence, and results like this where we did everything right and still failed don't help.
- Yes, smaller nations or nations with no diaspora or strong cultural ties to their neighbours have a harder time, but they can still qualify and even win: Portugal won in 2017, Israel in 2018, the Netherlands in 2019 and Switzerland in 2024
- Yes, Belgium isn't internationally known for its culture and music (both of which are renowned with more culturally minded folks!), but similar images haven't stopped other countries from winning in the past decade: again, Switzerland won last year and as per Semi 1, it's most famous song ever is the cringey Chicken Dance
- No, the public doesn't hate techno: Ukraine in 2021 and Lithuania in 2024 both did well
- No, Portugal didn't pip Belgium from its spot because Belgian viewers sympathised with the fact that Portugal's lead singer is the son-in-law of a famous Belgian journalist - this is a preposterous notion
We simply have to accept that a lot fewer people liked the song than we thought. It was a high-stakes gamble and we lost, but I think we can all take a page out of Red Sebastian's book and leave the Contest with our head held high, and with grace and dignity.
Shock Qs
Armenia, Iceland, San Marino, Latvia and Denmark pulling through weren't that surprising, in the end. The biggest shock qualifier was probably Portugal. I'll admit it's hard to wrap my head around. But Portugal is one a +5 qualification streak so they clearly are doing something that clicks with the general audience. And I have to say that even within the fandom, their entry always had its defenders willing to go to bat for it, which can't be said about e.g. Azerbaijan or Georgia. My current assessment is that perhaps the bubble overvalues staging and undervalues a self-confident, well-dressed and good-looking performer that makes no bones about bringing a heart-felt classic song without drama or bombast.
Is the era of English language dominance over?
English clearly hasn't been the automatic boost to qualifying chances it used to be a decade ago. The majority of 2025's NQs was in English, while the majority of Qs was not. Perhaps it's a sign for both Belgian broadcasters to go back to native language entries, something either has seemed loathe to do, maybe because the public at large associates this era with low-quality amateurism and failure, especially the Flemish broadcaster.
Ukraine and Luxembourg keep their 100% qualification rates
"If anyone ever says again Ukraine won in 2022 because Europe felt sympathetic to their plight, show them this. It is frankly insane how well Ukraine understands Eurovision. At this rate they’ll have their 5th win long before some other countries that have never won have nabbed their first." If any year looked like it might break their streak, it was this one - the song is fine, but the staging was divisive and the vocal wasn't always very reliable. But it did qualify, so they now sit on a mind-boggling +17 streak too.
Luxembourg also now has 2/2, this year feeling more earned. Other streaks that are continuing (counting only from +3 or -3): Sweden (+11), Norway (+8), Portugal (+5), Finland (+5), Lithuania (+5), Armenia (+4), Estonia (+4), Azerbaijan (-3) and Montenegro (-6). Broken streaks: Serbia is out after a +6 streak and both Malta and San Marino broke a -3 streak.
Israel still needs to be booted from the Contest
Nothing to add here. At least KAN appears to have behaved itself a little better this year.
Changes in predictions after Big 5 + Swiss rehearsals and performances
- France is tipped as potential winner, as it has been in 2021, 2023 and 2024. Once again it's going for an intimate staging coupled with a heart-felt Big Moment, but it could be outcompeted by Switzerland. The song itself impacts me at times, but especially the chorus drags on and if I'm not in the mood for the song, it's grating.
- Germany caused excitement with its first German-language entry in 18 years. I really like the song: it's current, fresh and feels true to modern-day German pop (it's not really a club banger, those tend to be on the heavier side) but there have been on-and-off doubts about Tynna's vocal. The verses sounded shaky in the Semi, and if they don't get it right, I'm afraid the abyss of the bottom 5 is beckoning.
- Italy is likely to put in a decent result on the back of its classic, Elton John-esque song with authentic personality and songwriting, but this doesn't sound and look like top 10 material. Lucio seems like a lovely person though. Top 15 sounds realistic to me.
- Spain has got me wondering who this entry is really for except the audience they tried to play to last year (40+ gay men). Melody is a very capable vocalist, but the composition feels clichéd and dated. It's a far cry from the snoozy ballads and car crashes from the pre-2022 era, but it somehow always feels like Spain is stuck trying to win the Contest from a decade ago. I stand by my opinion that this is bottom 5 fodder.
- Switzerland has the bubble hotly speculating if they could be headed for a surprise back-to-back win. Despite the technical error in the camerawork in Semi 1, it does look like a very captivating staging (and I like it a lot better than France's, whose staging isn't bad by any means). Unless it manages to blow its direct competition completely out of the water on Saturday and the televote for Sweden isn't going to be as massive as predicted, I don't think it'll win.
- United Kingdom I don't see breaking the top 10 this year, as some had hoped. While I was a little harsh in my first assessment that Remember Monday might come across as chaotic and screechy on stage - in fact the harmonies were pretty nice and the girls have an infectious charm - it is clearly very Queen meets musical theatre, and I don't know how big the audience for this is. Some of the solo vocals were a little off, too, but I hope it'll be better Saturday.
The Grand Final: state of play
With the running order now known and the bookmakers’ odds hardening like resin, let’s try and make some predictions.
How did I do last year?
Winners' circle: Correctly predicted a Swiss win.
Top 10: 8/10. At the time the Netherlands weren't disqualified yet. I hadn't expected Armenia ending up in the top 10 but it was a very welcome surprise.
Bottom 5: 3/5. Norway's last place was a complete shock, Germany did a lot better than anyone could have hoped, and Georgia's 21st place felt a little undeserved, but it was what it was.
2025
Winners' circle: This is Sweden's to lose. After the cautionary tale of the semis, I don't think Austria is the main contender any longer (although I would love an Austrian win!). Switzerland and Finland both have an outside choice of making it, the former if it hoovers up the jury points like it's nobody's business, the latter if the jury snubs Sweden and Finland does well in both.
Top 10: All four entries mentioned above, expanded with Israel (sigh), the Netherlands and Albania. That leaves three spots up for grabs, which I think are most likely to go to Ukraine, Poland and Greece. I'm waiting to be proven wrong but I have nagging suspicion Estonia's entry isn't as popular as a lot of insiders seem to think, plus because the televote eliminated a lot of potential jury darlings, juries will have a bigger impact and the televote will be more scattered, which is why Malta will not be top 10 either I think.
Bottom 5: I think San Marino will be paid dust by the juries and will be drowned out in the televote. Spain I think is typical bottom 5 material and I have a dark suspicion we'll be encountering Iceland here too when it faces stronger opposition. Juries typically don't pay much heed to more ethnic songs so I'm afraid Latvia will end up here as well. The final bottom 5 spot could go to either the UK or Germany if the vocal isn't good, but if they do manage to do better, we might encounter Lithuania here - juries mostly skip on darker rock songs, which is a shame.
Will anyone get 0 points? I don't think so.
