Eurovision Song Contest 2025: Predictions before the show

So, we're in the final stretch now. The pre-parties and rehearsals have happened so it's time to take a critical look at my predictions for both Semis and see if anything's changed. I haven't seen the rehearsal clips for the Big Five and Switzerland yet, but these don't really factor into the equation here.

"I've heard some people say this is a weak year. Is it?"

Opinions are always subjective and "weak" is a relative term. Almost any entry from the 2025 field would have easily achieved top 5 or even victory if you're judging by 2005 standards, for instance. For me personally, and I think this is what some fans mean when they decry 2025 is a weak year, there are fewer entries that I was immediately gripped by and fewer entries that have grown on me. More gracefully, I'd say the Class of 2025 is generally competent and up to 2025 production, songwriting and staging standards.

Overall I think 2024 and 2025 are comparable in terms of both floor and ceiling, whereas 2023 was more extreme on either end (on the high-end, the performances of Loreen and Käärijä are still being talked about as high marks of showmanship, but on the lower end, the awfulness of fundless Teodor Andrei and the creeptastic show from the Piqued Jacks were definite recalls of a messier, more amateuristic era).

Semi-Final 1

Prediction from April 9 (in no particular order):

Ukraine

Sweden

Poland

Albania

San Marino

The Netherlands

Norway

Estonia

Belgium

Cyprus

Has anything changed my opinions?

San Marino unfortunately hasn't changed their staging that much. Historically, staging that centres on a DJ turns off televoters, and while Gabry Ponte has energy, his singers have elected not only to remain masked (which I think matters less than some people think) but also to remain static and on the sidelines. There are also concerns about Cyprus over-staging their entry and Theo Evan not able to keep up an intricate choreo and a vocal at the same time - but what I've seen looks and sounds okay so far.

We've only been fed 30 second clips, but I have my doubts about Ukraine's costume and lighting choices that make their lead singer Daniel look even more androgynous than he already does, and in a smudgy way that kind of cheapens his appearance. I don't think their qualification chances are threatened, but their score could be lower because of that.

I still think Estonia will do a little worse than many expect and Belgium will squeak by. On that note, while I love the un-Flemish confidence the Flemish delegation has tried to project with this entry, the talk on national television about winning is delusional. I agree no artist should go to the Contest to meekly round out the numbers and accept their fate, but there is something to be said for expectation management. Qualifying and ending up on the left-side of the scoreboard would be a good result. But anyway, the remaining 8 have all done what was expected of them on the pre-party circuit and feel quite safe.

So, if San Marino isn't making it, I think Iceland is taking their spot. If neither Cyprus nor San Marino make it, I think Azerbaijan could be in play again if they stage their entry well, or even Croatia if they put on a really strong show (although it sits dead last in the odds right now). I would even wager Croatia has a more unique package and it is helped by its running order. I've seen some people making a case for Portugal, too, but I think for that two happen it needs more than just San Marino and Cyprus flubbing it.

Are there potentials for shock NQs?

In my heart of hearts I think Estonia could be a shock NQ. It's early in the running order, the fandom doesn't really like the entry much and being a somewhat famous artist absolutely does not guarantee a good result. There's a graveyard full of Cascadas, Engelbert Humperdincks, Ollies, Bonnie Tylers and more to attest to that. I still think it's going to qualify, though. Either Belgium or Cyprus could also still sink if the vocal performance is shaky or the showmanship isn't there, but after seeing the rehearsal clips, I no longer consider that a strong possibility.

Are there potentials for shock qualifications? 

As I said above, I think Croatia could qualify, but it will be on the back of incredibly thoughtful staging, and nothing suggests the competition is lacking in that regard. Slovenia could be a shock qualifier too if people connect with the plain authenticity of the performance - the surprise they've cooked up to include Klemen's wife (who the song is about) in the staging is quite clever. Also, the audience does turn out for heart-felt ballads in the Semis, Latvia's Dons got through last year on the back of a vulnerable, engaging performance, while everyone had the poor guy dead last in the odds. If Iceland feels too juvenile, Azerbaijan doesn't connect and Croatia falls of the wagon like most people expect, Slovenia could qualify.

Verdict: swapping San Marino for Iceland.

Final Semi-Final 1 prediction (in order):

1. Sweden
2. Poland
3. Albania
4. Norway
5. Ukraine
6. Estonia
7. The Netherlands
8. Cyprus
9. Iceland
10. Belgium

How off the mark was I last year?

I had 9/10 correct and had 4/10 in the correct order (1st, 2nd, 3rd and 8th).

Semi-Final 2

Prediction from April 11 (in no particular order):

Finland

Greece

Australia

Malta

Austria

Latvia

Lithuania

Serbia

Ireland

Czechia

Has anything changed my opinions?

Like last year, Semi 2 has proven to be a lot harder to predict. Like last year, I seemed to have forgotten that yes, Israel will unfortunately qualify, though I doubt they will win their Semi. That means that at least one of my prognosticised qualifiers gets the boot. Before I get on to that, I think Latvia is safer than many people seem to think: yes, the bookies aren't seeing it and there's Latvia's terrible qualification record to keep in mind, but it stands out as a very unique entry and the type of music some audiences actually watch Eurovision for: the kind of music they would never hear otherwise on the radio.

The two countries that are most obviously on the precipice for me are Ireland and Serbia. If Luxembourg could snatch Ireland's spot, especially with more its Junior Eurovision-like staging and performance. In addition, Ireland contends with Denmark in the same upbeat dance-pop territory. It will all come down to staging. Fan support for Denmark is huge this year, but even with vastly improved staging, 'Hallucination' remains slightly dated Loreen-lite fare. Luxembourg has a better running order slot, too. In addition, Denmark doesn't have Sweden, Norway and Iceland in this Semi.

Serbia is a whole other bag. While it is served (serbed) well by its running order and Princ is a very competent singer, their staging direction they've chosen isn't moving the needle - the clip of him getting dragged across the stage looks goofy. Many observers' minds will drift to Montenegro, which is also sending a typical Balkan ballad that is sung just as competently, but feels more personal and gripping. Montenegro is however murdered by its running order slot (and the costuming choices for Nina aren't great either). 

As I sidenote, I think it's likely Georgia might get the dreaded nul points. I also think Malta will not get as many votes as some people think. I would not be shocked if Lithuania didn't qualify either - people may simply not be in the mood to be reminded of the terrible state of world affairs, and that song's last minute will be off-putting for some people, no matter how competently the package is executed. I'm fairly confident about the first 7 in the list making it though.

Last point: don't discount Armenia. Their rehearsal clip shows their reliability at staging well, and despite Parg's sub-par performance in a national final where everything felt bad, gaudy and screechy, his vocals sound a lot better. Let's not forget that Luxembourg and Ireland could drag each other down by stealing votes from each other, and so could Serbia and Montenegro. Armenia doesn't actually have any other entry competing in the same space.

Are there potentials for shock NQs?

Honestly, no. Maybe Lithuania?

Are there potentials for shock qualifications? 

The only real shock qualification would be Georgia, but that's not going to happen.

Verdict: Ireland and Serbia are out, Armenia and Israel are in.

Final Semi-Final 2 prediction (in order):

1. Finland
2. Israel
3. Czechia
4. Greece
5. Austria
6. Malta
7. Australia
8. Latvia
9. Lithuania
10. Armenia

How off the mark was I last year?

I had 7/10 correct, which is only slightly better than random, and my asterisk notes were all wrong. Of the ones I had correct, I had predicted none in the correct spot.

Eurovision Song Contest 2024: On the eve of the Grand Final

So the semis have now come and gone. I correctly predicted 16/20 finalists. In a field with 31 competing entries, that’s slightly better than random and my score is mostly saved by SF1, which was the more predictable of the two semis.

General observations

The past decade has seen the quality of entries on a steady rise. The early naughts are starting to look like a foreign land and entries that could have comfortably qualified a decade ago are now fiercely competing against entries of a similar quality. I realise that part of this is caused by less committed and/or less well-financed countries leaving the Contest, but even countries backed by fewer resources like San Marino and Moldova bring at least respectable entries and shows. 

• Among the Big Five, barring Germany, each of them has rediscovered or continued its drive to win rather than hang on in grim resignation. 
• Unless an entry brings the party or does something novel, even a partially bad vocal is now a death knell.
• Running order still matters, but its importance is a little exaggerated.
• Obvious DOA entries are getting rarer - this year had just one and 2023 and 2022 each had three. Compare to 2019, that at least had five or six.

Other notes

Belgium

As most analysts had predicted, SF2 this year was very hard to predict. As a Belgian, I am obviously disappointed that our qualification streak was broken but it was not entirely unexpected. I hope both VRT and RTBF realise they need to amp up their efforts and not cling to copium as to why we didn’t make it. Possible excuses could be:

• “Mustii’s vocal wasn’t perfect, but the vocal performances from Austria, Greece and the Netherlands also weren't good and they still made it”: yes, but for party songs vocal performance doesn’t matter (that much).
• “The audience doesn’t understand sophisticated pop songs”: it does, if it’s staged correctly. Serbia made the cut in ’22 and ’23 and Ireland made it this year.

Belgium's three-year qualification streak was flimsy anyway, each time progressing by tight margins. Other countries that used to have similar streaks like Azerbaijan and Albania found out as well that this doesn’t keep working, the former last year and the latter also this year. I hope VRT treats our 2025 participation seriously and/or attracts talent that’s a cut above the crop we saw in 2023.

Three long NQ streaks ended, two NQ streaks are continuing

I’m very happy for Ireland, Latvia and Georgia that their long NQ streaks have ended. In the case of Latvia, I’m actually quite sure that Dons’s rock-solid showing pushed out Belgium. Unfortunately, Denmark and San Marino’s NQ strings are continuing, with each at 4 consecutive NQs. I would like to believe neither scored rock bottom because they had solid packages.

Ukraine keeps its 100% qualification rate

If anyone ever says again Ukraine won in 2022 because Europe felt sympathetic to their plight, show them this. It is frankly insane how well Ukraine understands Eurovision. At this rate they’ll have their 5th win long before some other countries that have never won have nabbed their first. Also yes, Luxembourg now technically has a 100% qualification record as well, but come on. 

Israel needs to be booted from the Contest

There was some booing during the Semi but it was drowned out by the cheers. We have to wait and see what the actual televote for Israel was, but I’m afraid it will strengthen the EBU in its belief that this genocidal Apartheid state belongs in the Contest. The EBU’s excuse that Israel has an independent broadcaster while Russia does not is laughable. The Caucasus countries have serious problems in that regard, and I’m sure the EBU would welcome back Türkiye and Hungary with open arms. Unfortunately, Israel now also shot up in the bookies’ odds. Their entry winning Eurovision 2024 would be nothing short of disgusting and pretending it’s anything else is hypocrisy.

Fake edit: I was drafting my post before a few more things came to light:

• The EBU switched off the audience mikes during Israel's performance and pasted a cheering tape on top because booing from the audience was too loud. There are several amateur recordings from within the audience that show this.
• At the time of posting, there is now also an ongoing controversy regarding continued Dutch participation in Eurovision 2024 but it looks like it was instigated by Israeli crybullying (to non-natives: "crybullying" is bullying others while pretending you're the real victim). The EBU pushing out the Netherlands would be a catastrophic mistake and might even cause me not to watch the Grand Final at all.

The Grand Final: state of play

With the running order now known and the bookmakers’ odds hardening like resin, let’s try and make some predictions.

Winners’ circle: Croatia and Switzerland are still the two most likely winners in my mind, followed by Italy, Ukraine and, distantly, France and - sigh - Israel, apparently. I no longer think the Netherlands is in contention to win. While heavy on vibes, I thought Joost’s performance was honestly quite sloppy. The same is true for Greece, which was carried by Marina Satti's charisma but was flawed in its execution. There are voices suggesting Ireland might be a shock winner, but for that to happen all other favourites would need to falter and I don’t see that happen. 

Top 10: All of the countries mentioned above (except maybe Greece if the performance is as messy as in the SF), expanded with Portugal, Sweden and Serbia. Most other entries I could see breaking into the 9th or 10th place if they have a good showing. It’s an unpredictable year!

Bottom 5: I’m afraid Germany and Spain will once again be relegated to the bottom of the pack, though for opposite reasons, and I don’t think either will go home with the dreaded nil points. Germany’s song is just too bland and its staging is a very weird fit while Spain’s package is very in-crowd and too low-energy. They will be kept company here by Slovenia, whose entry is fantastic but the staging is terribly blank. If Olly or Kaleen fudge their vocal again, the UK and Austria may end up here as well. 

Eurovision Song Contest 2024: Predictions before the show

So, we're in the final stretch now. The pre-parties and rehearsals have happened so it's time to take a critical look at my predictions for both Semis and see if anything's changed.

Semi-Final 1

Prediction from April 5 (in no particular order):

Azerbaijan

Croatia

Cyprus

Finland

Ireland

Lithuania

Portugal

Serbia

Slovenia

Ukraine

Has anything changed my opinions?

I think Croatia, Finland, Ireland, Lithuania and Ukraine are still surely qualifying and I also think we are still getting both Portugal and Serbia, despite the similarity in their offering (moody ballads). I don't want my make-believe to cloud predictions to much and Slovenia is now considered a borderline non-qualifier, but I'm keeping the faith in that one, too. 

The only change I would make is Cyprus not to qualify and Luxembourg to go through, though not on big margins. Its spot could be taken by Poland, too, but their song isn't inherently as exciting as the other two and its goofy staging is a risk. Plus, Luna's vocals have at times sounded brittle.

I also have concerns about Azerbaijan. There is something not quite gelling between the song, presentation and performance for their entry (even though I love their entry and want it to qualify) but I don't really see what could take its spot. I simply can't imagine all of the female solo artists will make it through.

Verdict: swapping Cyprus for Luxembourg.

Final Semi-Final 1 prediction (in order):

1. Croatia
2. Ukraine
3. Ireland
4. Finland
5. Portugal
6. Lithuania
7. Luxembourg
8. Serbia*
9. Slovenia*
10. Azerbaijan*

* Spots 8-10 could still be taken by Cyprus or Poland

Semi-Final 2

Prediction from April 6 (in no particular order):

Armenia

Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Estonia

Georgia

The Netherlands

Norway

San Marino

Switzerland

Has anything changed my opinions?

Armenia, the Netherlands, Norway and Switzerland are still making it without many problems. I made a mistake in not including Greece on the list last time. Austria and Denmark have offerings similar to one another, so I think if Kaleen's vocal is going to be too weak, she'll be dropping out. Many analysts have Denmark as a borderline qualifier but I'm keeping it in - sure, it's a Loreen Lite, but I think Saba's vocal is more reliable and the staging I've seen will help her otherwise static performance.

Malta has also entered the conversation again, whereas Belgium and Estonia have come under scrutiny. It pains me a bit to see Mustii appears to be doing a reverse Gustaph: he came into the Contest riding sky-high, but his unreliable pre-show performances and odd staging choices have seen him dropping in the odds pretty dramatically. I think he is still qualifying but I would not be surprised if he didn't make the cut. I feel even less certain about Estonia. Voters who want to go for the "it's crazy, it's party" vibe already have the Netherlands, and Estonia seems to just be copying its national finals performance, which was criticised for at times looking too chaotic. If Malta makes it, I think we will lose Georgia.

Lastly, Czechia's staging is an absolutely massive upgrade from both the studio cut and the underwhelming national finals performance. It could split the rock vote between itself and San Marino, but Megara has also upgraded its staging and I think it is still the more attractive and memorable package.

Verdict: I'll unfortunately admit Israel will be making it (look at my SF2 post to see why I refuse to discuss their entry) and I hadn't factored in Greece, so Austria unfortunately gets the axe here, as does Estonia.

Final Semi-Final 2 prediction (in order):

1. The Netherlands
2. Switzerland
3. Greece
4. Armenia
5. Israel
6. Georgia*
7. Norway
8. Denmark
9. Belgium
10. San Marino**

*Georgia's 5th-7th spot could be taken by Malta

**10th place could be taken by Czechia instead