So, we're in the final stretch now. The pre-parties and rehearsals have happened so it's time to take a critical look at my predictions for both Semis and see if anything's changed. I haven't seen the rehearsal clips for the Big Five and Switzerland yet, but these don't really factor into the equation here.
"I've heard some people say this is a weak year. Is it?"
Opinions are always subjective and "weak" is a relative term. Almost any entry from the 2025 field would have easily achieved top 5 or even victory if you're judging by 2005 standards, for instance. For me personally, and I think this is what some fans mean when they decry 2025 is a weak year, there are fewer entries that I was immediately gripped by and fewer entries that have grown on me. More gracefully, I'd say the Class of 2025 is generally competent and up to 2025 production, songwriting and staging standards.
Overall I think 2024 and 2025 are comparable in terms of both floor and ceiling, whereas 2023 was more extreme on either end (on the high-end, the performances of Loreen and Käärijä are still being talked about as high marks of showmanship, but on the lower end, the awfulness of fundless Teodor Andrei and the creeptastic show from the Piqued Jacks were definite recalls of a messier, more amateuristic era).
Semi-Final 1
Prediction from April 9 (in no particular order):
Ukraine
Sweden
Poland
Albania
San Marino
The Netherlands
Norway
Estonia
Belgium
Cyprus
Has anything changed my opinions?
San Marino unfortunately hasn't changed their staging that much. Historically, staging that centres on a DJ turns off televoters, and while Gabry Ponte has energy, his singers have elected not only to remain masked (which I think matters less than some people think) but also to remain static and on the sidelines. There are also concerns about Cyprus over-staging their entry and Theo Evan not able to keep up an intricate choreo and a vocal at the same time - but what I've seen looks and sounds okay so far.
We've only been fed 30 second clips, but I have my doubts about Ukraine's costume and lighting choices that make their lead singer Daniel look even more androgynous than he already does, and in a smudgy way that kind of cheapens his appearance. I don't think their qualification chances are threatened, but their score could be lower because of that.
I still think Estonia will do a little worse than many expect and Belgium will squeak by. On that note, while I love the un-Flemish confidence the Flemish delegation has tried to project with this entry, the talk on national television about winning is delusional. I agree no artist should go to the Contest to meekly round out the numbers and accept their fate, but there is something to be said for expectation management. Qualifying and ending up on the left-side of the scoreboard would be a good result. But anyway, the remaining 8 have all done what was expected of them on the pre-party circuit and feel quite safe.
So, if San Marino isn't making it, I think Iceland is taking their spot. If neither Cyprus nor San Marino make it, I think Azerbaijan could be in play again if they stage their entry well, or even Croatia if they put on a really strong show (although it sits dead last in the odds right now). I would even wager Croatia has a more unique package and it is helped by its running order. I've seen some people making a case for Portugal, too, but I think for that two happen it needs more than just San Marino and Cyprus flubbing it.
Are there potentials for shock NQs?
In my heart of hearts I think Estonia could be a shock NQ. It's early in the running order, the fandom doesn't really like the entry much and being a somewhat famous artist absolutely does not guarantee a good result. There's a graveyard full of Cascadas, Engelbert Humperdincks, Ollies, Bonnie Tylers and more to attest to that. I still think it's going to qualify, though. Either Belgium or Cyprus could also still sink if the vocal performance is shaky or the showmanship isn't there, but after seeing the rehearsal clips, I no longer consider that a strong possibility.
Are there potentials for shock qualifications?
As I said above, I think Croatia could qualify, but it will be on the back of incredibly thoughtful staging, and nothing suggests the competition is lacking in that regard. Slovenia could be a shock qualifier too if people connect with the plain authenticity of the performance - the surprise they've cooked up to include Klemen's wife (who the song is about) in the staging is quite clever. Also, the audience does turn out for heart-felt ballads in the Semis, Latvia's Dons got through last year on the back of a vulnerable, engaging performance, while everyone had the poor guy dead last in the odds. If Iceland feels too juvenile, Azerbaijan doesn't connect and Croatia falls of the wagon like most people expect, Slovenia could qualify.
Verdict: swapping San Marino for Iceland.
Final Semi-Final 1 prediction (in order):
- Sweden
- Poland
- Albania
- Norway
- Ukraine
- Estonia
- The Netherlands
- Cyprus
- Iceland
- Belgium
How off the mark was I last year?
I had 9/10 correct and had 4/10 in the correct order (1st, 2nd, 3rd and 8th).
Semi-Final 2
Prediction from April 11 (in no particular order):
Finland
Greece
Australia
Malta
Austria
Latvia
Lithuania
Serbia
Ireland
Czechia
Has anything changed my opinions?
Like last year, Semi 2 has proven to be a lot harder to predict. Like last year, I seemed to have forgotten that yes, Israel will unfortunately qualify, though I doubt they will win their Semi. That means that at least one of my prognosticised qualifiers gets the boot. Before I get on to that, I think Latvia is safer than many people seem to think: yes, the bookies aren't seeing it and there's Latvia's terrible qualification record to keep in mind, but it stands out as a very unique entry and the type of music some audiences actually watch Eurovision for: the kind of music they would never hear otherwise on the radio.
The two countries that are most obviously on the precipice for me are Ireland and Serbia. If Luxembourg could snatch Ireland's spot, especially with more its Junior Eurovision-like staging and performance. In addition, Ireland contends with Denmark in the same upbeat dance-pop territory. It will all come down to staging. Fan support for Denmark is huge this year, but even with vastly improved staging, 'Hallucination' remains slightly dated Loreen-lite fare. Luxembourg has a better running order slot, too. In addition, Denmark doesn't have Sweden, Norway and Iceland in this Semi.
Serbia is a whole other bag. While it is served (serbed) well by its running order and Princ is a very competent singer, their staging direction they've chosen isn't moving the needle - the clip of him getting dragged across the stage looks goofy. Many observers' minds will drift to Montenegro, which is also sending a typical Balkan ballad that is sung just as competently, but feels more personal and gripping. Montenegro is however murdered by its running order slot (and the costuming choices for Nina aren't great either).
As I sidenote, I think it's likely Georgia might get the dreaded nul points. I also think Malta will not get as many votes as some people think. I would not be shocked if Lithuania didn't qualify either - people may simply not be in the mood to be reminded of the terrible state of world affairs, and that song's last minute will be off-putting for some people, no matter how competently the package is executed. I'm fairly confident about the first 7 in the list making it though.
Last point: don't discount Armenia. Their rehearsal clip shows their reliability at staging well, and despite Parg's sub-par performance in a national final where everything felt bad, gaudy and screechy, his vocals sound a lot better. Let's not forget that Luxembourg and Ireland could drag each other down by stealing votes from each other, and so could Serbia and Montenegro. Armenia doesn't actually have any other entry competing in the same space.
Are there potentials for shock NQs?
Honestly, no. Maybe Lithuania?
Are there potentials for shock qualifications?
The only real shock qualification would be Georgia, but that's not going to happen.
Verdict: Ireland and Serbia are out, Armenia and Israel are in.
Final Semi-Final 2 prediction (in order):
- Finland
- Israel
- Czechia
- Greece
- Austria
- Malta
- Australia
- Latvia
- Lithuania
- Armenia
How off the mark was I last year?
I had 7/10 correct, which is only slightly better than random, and my asterisk notes were all wrong. Of the ones I had correct, I had predicted none in the correct spot.
