Eurovision Song Contest 2025: On the eve of the Grand Final

So the semis have now come and gone. I correctly predicted 16/20 finalists, just like last year, but better than 2023, where I had 15/20 correct. Once again, this means I did slightly better than random. Feel free to mock me for this, though I should note I did just as well (or as bad) as an amalgamation of 10 betting companies.

General observations

I'm going to quote myself from last year because much of it still rings true: "The past decade has seen the quality of entries on a steady rise. The early naughts are starting to look like a foreign land and entries that could have comfortably qualified a decade ago are now fiercely competing against entries of a similar quality. I realise that part of this is caused by less committed and/or less well-financed countries leaving the Contest, but even countries backed by fewer resources [...] bring at least respectable entries and shows. [...] Unless an entry brings the party or does something novel, even a partially bad vocal is now a death knell. Running order still matters, but its importance is a little exaggerated." Note how this year in Semi 1, the last two entries didn't qualify and more qualifications came from the second half, while in Semi 2 there was an even split. 

"Obvious DOA entries are getting rarer" - 2025 had just one (initially two to my mind, but Portugal qualified), 2024 had one, both 2023 and 2022 had three, 2021 had two whereas 2019 at least had five of six DOAs. The technological sophistication of the show is also at an all-time high and will continue to rise. Audiences from as little as two decades ago would probably be utterly shocked by the possibilities of what can be done with today's lighting, screening and projection technology.

Other notes

Shock NQs

The big one here is Belgium. This now means Belgium has the unenviable label of having had three shock NQs in less than a decade (2018, 2023 and 2025). In 2018 and 2023, it was easy to see why it happened: reasonably strong songs sabotaged by bad staging and/or bad vocals. This year is different. Insiders, press and bookies were roaring about the staging, the song seemed solid and the vocal was impressive. We will never know completely what made it derail and it's hard to offer more explanations until we see the full points from Semi 1. My current hypothesis is that circumstances would have always made it harder for Belgium than usual: a very male-dominated Semi as well as competition from Cyprus, who came with an entry in a similar genre and with similarly intricate staging. It may well be that Belgium and Cyprus stole points from one another. 

Plus, it has to be said: the audience is sometimes turned off by entries the bubble loves for its go-hard artistry but rocket past casuals who find them too intense. I'm thinking of Spain in 2023 or Norway in 2024. Still, Austria qualified this year (but we don't know yet by how much).

Cyprus was a shock NQ vis à vis the odds but makes perfect sense in hindsight. All season the Cypriot delegation seemed anxious to hide Theo Evan from the pre-party circuit or only wheeled him out in very managed and limited settings. His vocal was too thin and the work-out in his intricate staging also didn't help. To a lesser extent, Australia has a similar story. While Go-Jo put in decent performances on the pre-party circuit and in rehearsals, he looked frazzled and his vocal was off for a good deal of the performance. The staging was way, way better than the lumpy and thoughtless show Australia put on last year though.

Czechia is one of the cases where I should have gone with my gut, but I had already risked following my instinct with Armenia (which turned out to be completely correct!). The hype around Czechia was always more about Adonxs' charisma and abilities and less about the song. I already said in my pre-analysis that 'Kiss kiss goodbye' was more of a song that needed to be seen rather than heard, and while its execution wasn't bad, it was middling in a very competitive Semi with much stronger vocal participants than in Semi 1.

Well well well, if that isn't the consequences of my actions!

I hope Czechia's NQ isn't their cue to withdraw. Interest in ESC has always been low in the nation, and the Contest's been steadily bleeding participant nations in the past years, especially from Central-, Eastern and Southeastern Europe. There's a reasonable case to suggest Azerbaijan might withdraw as well after a three-NQ streak, but I think we could do without another dictatorship. Georgia's entry almost looked designed as an excuse to withdraw in 2026 but we'll see. I would be sad if Montenegro disappeared again, and while their entry was never very competitive, the EBU almost seemed to go out of its way to make it harder for them by putting Nina in the death slot.

Second, I also hope the three shock NQs this decade won't become a millstone around Belgium's neck in the coming years, with all attendant self-defeating anxieties. After Red Sebastian didn't qualify, in some corners of the media I saw ugly conspirational thinking from the early naughts rear their ugly head again. Belgians by and large already lack nationalist self-confidence, and results like this where we did everything right and still failed don't help. 

• Yes, smaller nations or nations with no diaspora or strong cultural ties to their neighbours have a harder time, but they can still qualify and even win: Portugal won in 2017, Israel in 2018, the Netherlands in 2019 and Switzerland in 2024 
• Yes, Belgium isn't internationally known for its culture and music (both of which are renowned with more culturally minded folks!), but similar images haven't stopped other countries from winning in the past decade: again, Switzerland won last year and as per Semi 1, it's most famous song ever is the cringey Chicken Dance
• No, the public doesn't hate techno: Ukraine in 2021 and Lithuania in 2024 both did well
• No, Portugal didn't pip Belgium from its spot because Belgian viewers sympathised with the fact that Portugal's lead singer is the son-in-law of a famous Belgian journalist - this is a preposterous notion

We simply have to accept that a lot fewer people liked the song than we thought. It was a high-stakes gamble and we lost, but I think we can all take a page out of Red Sebastian's book and leave the Contest with our head held high, and with grace and dignity.

Shock Qs

Armenia, Iceland, San Marino, Latvia and Denmark pulling through weren't that surprising, in the end. The biggest shock qualifier was probably Portugal. I'll admit it's hard to wrap my head around. But Portugal is one a +5 qualification streak so they clearly are doing something that clicks with the general audience. And I have to say that even within the fandom, their entry always had its defenders willing to go to bat for it, which can't be said about e.g. Azerbaijan or Georgia. My current assessment is that perhaps the bubble overvalues staging and undervalues a self-confident, well-dressed and good-looking performer that makes no bones about bringing a heart-felt classic song without drama or bombast.

Is the era of English language dominance over?

English clearly hasn't been the automatic boost to qualifying chances it used to be a decade ago. The majority of 2025's NQs was in English, while the majority of Qs was not. Perhaps it's a sign for both Belgian broadcasters to go back to native language entries, something either has seemed loathe to do, maybe because the public at large associates this era with low-quality amateurism and failure, especially the Flemish broadcaster.

Ukraine and Luxembourg keep their 100% qualification rates

"If anyone ever says again Ukraine won in 2022 because Europe felt sympathetic to their plight, show them this. It is frankly insane how well Ukraine understands Eurovision. At this rate they’ll have their 5th win long before some other countries that have never won have nabbed their first." If any year looked like it might break their streak, it was this one - the song is fine, but the staging was divisive and the vocal wasn't always very reliable. But it did qualify, so they now sit on a mind-boggling +17 streak too. 

Luxembourg also now has 2/2, this year feeling more earned. Other streaks that are continuing (counting only from +3 or -3): Sweden (+11), Norway (+8), Portugal (+5), Finland (+5), Lithuania (+5), Armenia (+4), Estonia (+4), Azerbaijan (-3) and Montenegro (-6). Broken streaks: Serbia is out after a +6 streak and both Malta and San Marino broke a -3 streak.

Israel still needs to be booted from the Contest

Nothing to add here. At least KAN appears to have behaved itself a little better this year.

Changes in predictions after Big 5 + Swiss rehearsals and performances

• France is tipped as potential winner, as it has been in 2021, 2023 and 2024. Once again it's going for an intimate staging coupled with a heart-felt Big Moment, but it could be outcompeted by Switzerland. The song itself impacts me at times, but especially the chorus drags on and if I'm not in the mood for the song, it's grating. 
• Germany caused excitement with its first German-language entry in 18 years. I really like the song: it's current, fresh and feels true to modern-day German pop (it's not really a club banger, those tend to be on the heavier side) but there have been on-and-off doubts about Tynna's vocal. The verses sounded shaky in the Semi, and if they don't get it right, I'm afraid the abyss of the bottom 5 is beckoning.
• Italy is likely to put in a decent result on the back of its classic, Elton John-esque song with authentic personality and songwriting, but this doesn't sound and look like top 10 material. Lucio seems like a lovely person though. Top 15 sounds realistic to me.
• Spain has got me wondering who this entry is really for except the audience they tried to play to last year (40+ gay men). Melody is a very capable vocalist, but the composition feels clichéd and dated. It's a far cry from the snoozy ballads and car crashes from the pre-2022 era, but it somehow always feels like Spain is stuck trying to win the Contest from a decade ago. I stand by my opinion that this is bottom 5 fodder.
• Switzerland has the bubble hotly speculating if they could be headed for a surprise back-to-back win. Despite the technical error in the camerawork in Semi 1, it does look like a very captivating staging (and I like it a lot better than France's, whose staging isn't bad by any means). Unless it manages to blow its direct competition completely out of the water on Saturday and the televote for Sweden isn't going to be as massive as predicted, I don't think it'll win.
• United Kingdom I don't see breaking the top 10 this year, as some had hoped. While I was a little harsh in my first assessment that Remember Monday might come across as chaotic and screechy on stage - in fact the harmonies were pretty nice and the girls have an infectious charm - it is clearly very Queen meets musical theatre, and I don't know how big the audience for this is. Some of the solo vocals were a little off, too, but I hope it'll be better Saturday.

The Grand Final: state of play

With the running order now known and the bookmakers’ odds hardening like resin, let’s try and make some predictions.

How did I do last year?

Winners' circle: Correctly predicted a Swiss win.

Top 10: 8/10. At the time the Netherlands weren't disqualified yet. I hadn't expected Armenia ending up in the top 10 but it was a very welcome surprise.

Bottom 5: 3/5. Norway's last place was a complete shock, Germany did a lot better than anyone could have hoped, and Georgia's 21st place felt a little undeserved, but it was what it was.

2025

Winners' circle: This is Sweden's to lose. After the cautionary tale of the semis, I don't think Austria is the main contender any longer (although I would love an Austrian win!). Switzerland and Finland both have an outside choice of making it, the former if it hoovers up the jury points like it's nobody's business, the latter if the jury snubs Sweden and Finland does well in both. 

Top 10: All four entries mentioned above, expanded with Israel (sigh), the Netherlands and Albania. That leaves three spots up for grabs, which I think are most likely to go to Ukraine, Poland and Greece. I'm waiting to be proven wrong but I have nagging suspicion Estonia's entry isn't as popular as a lot of insiders seem to think, plus because the televote eliminated a lot of potential jury darlings, juries will have a bigger impact and the televote will be more scattered, which is why Malta will not be top 10 either I think.

Bottom 5: I think San Marino will be paid dust by the juries and will be drowned out in the televote. Spain I think is typical bottom 5 material and I have a dark suspicion we'll be encountering Iceland here too when it faces stronger opposition. Juries typically don't pay much heed to more ethnic songs so I'm afraid Latvia will end up here as well. The final bottom 5 spot could go to either the UK or Germany if the vocal isn't good, but if they do manage to do better, we might encounter Lithuania here - juries mostly skip on darker rock songs, which is a shame. 

Will anyone get 0 points? I don't think so.

 

Eurovision Song Contest 2025: Predictions before the show

So, we're in the final stretch now. The pre-parties and rehearsals have happened so it's time to take a critical look at my predictions for both Semis and see if anything's changed. I haven't seen the rehearsal clips for the Big Five and Switzerland yet, but these don't really factor into the equation here.

"I've heard some people say this is a weak year. Is it?"

Opinions are always subjective and "weak" is a relative term. Almost any entry from the 2025 field would have easily achieved top 5 or even victory if you're judging by 2005 standards, for instance. For me personally, and I think this is what some fans mean when they decry 2025 is a weak year, there are fewer entries that I was immediately gripped by and fewer entries that have grown on me. More gracefully, I'd say the Class of 2025 is generally competent and up to 2025 production, songwriting and staging standards.

Overall I think 2024 and 2025 are comparable in terms of both floor and ceiling, whereas 2023 was more extreme on either end (on the high-end, the performances of Loreen and Käärijä are still being talked about as high marks of showmanship, but on the lower end, the awfulness of fundless Teodor Andrei and the creeptastic show from the Piqued Jacks were definite recalls of a messier, more amateuristic era).

Semi-Final 1

Prediction from April 9 (in no particular order):

Ukraine

Sweden

Poland

Albania

San Marino

The Netherlands

Norway

Estonia

Belgium

Cyprus

Has anything changed my opinions?

San Marino unfortunately hasn't changed their staging that much. Historically, staging that centres on a DJ turns off televoters, and while Gabry Ponte has energy, his singers have elected not only to remain masked (which I think matters less than some people think) but also to remain static and on the sidelines. There are also concerns about Cyprus over-staging their entry and Theo Evan not able to keep up an intricate choreo and a vocal at the same time - but what I've seen looks and sounds okay so far.

We've only been fed 30 second clips, but I have my doubts about Ukraine's costume and lighting choices that make their lead singer Daniel look even more androgynous than he already does, and in a smudgy way that kind of cheapens his appearance. I don't think their qualification chances are threatened, but their score could be lower because of that.

I still think Estonia will do a little worse than many expect and Belgium will squeak by. On that note, while I love the un-Flemish confidence the Flemish delegation has tried to project with this entry, the talk on national television about winning is delusional. I agree no artist should go to the Contest to meekly round out the numbers and accept their fate, but there is something to be said for expectation management. Qualifying and ending up on the left-side of the scoreboard would be a good result. But anyway, the remaining 8 have all done what was expected of them on the pre-party circuit and feel quite safe.

So, if San Marino isn't making it, I think Iceland is taking their spot. If neither Cyprus nor San Marino make it, I think Azerbaijan could be in play again if they stage their entry well, or even Croatia if they put on a really strong show (although it sits dead last in the odds right now). I would even wager Croatia has a more unique package and it is helped by its running order. I've seen some people making a case for Portugal, too, but I think for that two happen it needs more than just San Marino and Cyprus flubbing it.

Are there potentials for shock NQs?

In my heart of hearts I think Estonia could be a shock NQ. It's early in the running order, the fandom doesn't really like the entry much and being a somewhat famous artist absolutely does not guarantee a good result. There's a graveyard full of Cascadas, Engelbert Humperdincks, Ollies, Bonnie Tylers and more to attest to that. I still think it's going to qualify, though. Either Belgium or Cyprus could also still sink if the vocal performance is shaky or the showmanship isn't there, but after seeing the rehearsal clips, I no longer consider that a strong possibility.

Are there potentials for shock qualifications? 

As I said above, I think Croatia could qualify, but it will be on the back of incredibly thoughtful staging, and nothing suggests the competition is lacking in that regard. Slovenia could be a shock qualifier too if people connect with the plain authenticity of the performance - the surprise they've cooked up to include Klemen's wife (who the song is about) in the staging is quite clever. Also, the audience does turn out for heart-felt ballads in the Semis, Latvia's Dons got through last year on the back of a vulnerable, engaging performance, while everyone had the poor guy dead last in the odds. If Iceland feels too juvenile, Azerbaijan doesn't connect and Croatia falls of the wagon like most people expect, Slovenia could qualify.

Verdict: swapping San Marino for Iceland.

Final Semi-Final 1 prediction (in order):

1. Sweden
2. Poland
3. Albania
4. Norway
5. Ukraine
6. Estonia
7. The Netherlands
8. Cyprus
9. Iceland
10. Belgium

How off the mark was I last year?

I had 9/10 correct and had 4/10 in the correct order (1st, 2nd, 3rd and 8th).

Semi-Final 2

Prediction from April 11 (in no particular order):

Finland

Greece

Australia

Malta

Austria

Latvia

Lithuania

Serbia

Ireland

Czechia

Has anything changed my opinions?

Like last year, Semi 2 has proven to be a lot harder to predict. Like last year, I seemed to have forgotten that yes, Israel will unfortunately qualify, though I doubt they will win their Semi. That means that at least one of my prognosticised qualifiers gets the boot. Before I get on to that, I think Latvia is safer than many people seem to think: yes, the bookies aren't seeing it and there's Latvia's terrible qualification record to keep in mind, but it stands out as a very unique entry and the type of music some audiences actually watch Eurovision for: the kind of music they would never hear otherwise on the radio.

The two countries that are most obviously on the precipice for me are Ireland and Serbia. If Luxembourg could snatch Ireland's spot, especially with more its Junior Eurovision-like staging and performance. In addition, Ireland contends with Denmark in the same upbeat dance-pop territory. It will all come down to staging. Fan support for Denmark is huge this year, but even with vastly improved staging, 'Hallucination' remains slightly dated Loreen-lite fare. Luxembourg has a better running order slot, too. In addition, Denmark doesn't have Sweden, Norway and Iceland in this Semi.

Serbia is a whole other bag. While it is served (serbed) well by its running order and Princ is a very competent singer, their staging direction they've chosen isn't moving the needle - the clip of him getting dragged across the stage looks goofy. Many observers' minds will drift to Montenegro, which is also sending a typical Balkan ballad that is sung just as competently, but feels more personal and gripping. Montenegro is however murdered by its running order slot (and the costuming choices for Nina aren't great either). 

As I sidenote, I think it's likely Georgia might get the dreaded nul points. I also think Malta will not get as many votes as some people think. I would not be shocked if Lithuania didn't qualify either - people may simply not be in the mood to be reminded of the terrible state of world affairs, and that song's last minute will be off-putting for some people, no matter how competently the package is executed. I'm fairly confident about the first 7 in the list making it though.

Last point: don't discount Armenia. Their rehearsal clip shows their reliability at staging well, and despite Parg's sub-par performance in a national final where everything felt bad, gaudy and screechy, his vocals sound a lot better. Let's not forget that Luxembourg and Ireland could drag each other down by stealing votes from each other, and so could Serbia and Montenegro. Armenia doesn't actually have any other entry competing in the same space.

Are there potentials for shock NQs?

Honestly, no. Maybe Lithuania?

Are there potentials for shock qualifications? 

The only real shock qualification would be Georgia, but that's not going to happen.

Verdict: Ireland and Serbia are out, Armenia and Israel are in.

Final Semi-Final 2 prediction (in order):

1. Finland
2. Israel
3. Czechia
4. Greece
5. Austria
6. Malta
7. Australia
8. Latvia
9. Lithuania
10. Armenia

How off the mark was I last year?

I had 7/10 correct, which is only slightly better than random, and my asterisk notes were all wrong. Of the ones I had correct, I had predicted none in the correct spot.

Eurovision Song Contest 2025: Semi-Final 2

I'll run down the countries in order of appearance. With each country, I'll also compare with my predictions of last year. This is a more ballad-heavy Semi, which makes it a little more difficult for ballads to qualify (and they already have some trouble with a televote-only system).

01. Australia

Entry: Go-Jo – Milkshake man

Language: English

Quick description: Cheeky ‘80s-inspired electropop

What came before? Despite this only being Australia's 10^th performance, their record so far is very impressive, with 7/9 qualifications. Apart from the most hardened skeptics or casuals who believe Australia doesn't 'belong' in ESC, our friends from down-under have more than earned their keep. 

Best Australian result so far: 2^nd in 2016.

Qualification streak: -1

Opinion: This is an entry with a pretty obvious double entendre. In the words of Go-Jo himself: “It’s about being the loudest and proudest version of yourself. Oh, and it’s also about cum.” However, as first in the running order, they’ll have to stage it in a family-friendly way. Barring the mess that was last year, Go-Jo should be able to stage this in a fun way that draws attention. The song has an overall fun vibe to it, too.

Snarky opinion: Why does everyone keep singing about goddamn food and sex this year?

Prediction: Qualifying.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I correctly predicted ‘One milkali’ wouldn’t qualify. The live performance was even worse than I had expected. It looked improvised on the spot and the vocals were pretty raw.

02. Montenegro

Entry: Nina Žižić – Dobrodošli

Language: Montenegrin

Quick description: Classic Balkan ballad

What came before? Starting in 2007, Montenegro participated 12 times (including this year) and has had a qualification record about as abysmal as San Marino’s, making it to only two Grand Finals. It is returning to the ESC after two gap years. 

Best Montenegrin result so far: 13^th in 2015. Still better than San Marino, I suppose!

Qualification streak: -5

Opinion: Nina Žižić already participated in the ESC with 2009’s Who See (an entry that was undeservedly absolutely murdered by the juries in its Semi) but is now bringing a classic Balkan ballad to the fore. It’s a well-crafted song and there are no doubts about the live vocals, but this entry isn’t helped by its bad running order. Counter to popular wisdom, televote audiences do show love to ballads on occasion, if they are staged with the utmost precision and quality.

Snarky opinion: A Very Serious Performance by your local art gallery proprietor

Prediction: I lean more towards not qualifying, which is unfortunate because it could mean we’re losing Montenegro again in 2026.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: -

03. Ireland

Entry: EMMY – Laika Party

Language: English

Quick description: Eurodance bop about the first dog in space

What came before? The days of Ireland being a Eurovision juggernaut are long past us. Barring a few bright spots, Ireland has consistently performed poorly in the past 25 years. Apparently the Irish public at large thinks "it's all political" but as ESC Tom (who himself is Irish) pointed out, the fact that most Irish entries in the past decades haven't done well in Irish charts speaks volumes. Why would Europe like their songs if Ireland itself doesn't like them to begin with? Last year offered a break with the phenomenal Bambie Thug.

Best Irish result so far: Won 7 times (1970, 1980, 1987, 1992, 1993, 1994 and 1996), which is a record they now share with Sweden. In addition, singer Johnny Logan is known as Mr. Eurovision on account of winning the contest two times as a performer (1980 and 1987) and one time as a producer (1992). Lastly, Ireland came 2^nd 4 times (1967, 1984, 1990 and 1997). I will never forgive Ireland for unleashing Riverdance on the global public, though.

Qualification streak: +1

Opinion: This is sweet bubblegum Eurodance fare in the vein of Aqua, which is not entirely unsurprising since Emmy is Norwegian. It’s a cute entry with an original take (“What if Laika didn’t die in space?”), but even the studio version already feels like it would be more appropriate for JESC, which isn’t helped by Emmy’s child-like vocal (this is not her doing this on purpose, she really does have that vocal colour). A silly or uninspired staging will sink this, I’m afraid, and she’s also not helped by the running order.

Snarky opinion: Going straight to the dogs with a song about a dog

Prediction: Leaning towards non-qualification.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I correctly predicted qualification, but given that I said the Grand Final performance was unpredictable, I can’t be too self-congratulatory about that.

04. Latvia

Entry: Tautumeitas – Bur man laimi

Language: Latvian

Quick description: Faerie-like folk choir

What came before? Latvia failed to qualify for the final 11 times. Despite winning the Contest back in 2002, they now share the space with a couple of other countries with the label "unpredictable and possibly weird", often enjoyed by the in-crowd but less favoured by the general public. They broke a 6 NQ streak in 2024.

Best Latvian result so far: Won once (2002), came 3^rd on their first participation in 2000 (which may have set the tone for "lovably quirky").

Qualification streak: +1

Opinion: I think this is a very unique and interesting proposition and might do well with parts of the audience that watch the ESC precisely to experience music they would otherwise never do on the radio or via regular streaming. Others might find it harder to latch onto, especially because of ‘Bur man laimi’’s somewhat uncommon and repetitive structure. Good staging could help, which the band has already proven they can do well at their national selection.

Snarky opinion: It’s Enya, but this time there’s 6 of them!

Prediction: I lean more towards qualification because there is nothing like it in its Semi and I’m confident it will be delivered well.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I went against my gut feeling and said Dons wouldn’t qualify, but he became his Semi’s shock qualifier, much to the wider ESC community’s delight.

05. Armenia

Entry: PARG – Survivor

Language: English

Quick description: Defiant stadium rap-rock

What came before? With three exceptions, ever since Armenia's first participation in 2006, they've qualified for every Grand Final. While Rosa Linn only came 20^th in 2022's Grand Final, her song exploded all over the world through TikTok later.

Best Armenian result so far: 4^th in 2008 and 2014.

Qualification streak: +3

Opinion: After years of successful internal selections, for some reason Armenia decided to organise national finals again. These were an unmitigated disaster on every level, with weak entries, bad production and awful performances. Parg was the least bad out of these, but still left a lot to be desired. The Armenian delegation is known to stage well, and I actually think ‘Survivor’ offers something genuinely captivating to work with. If Parg doesn’t manage to clean up his vocals and diction, this has the potential to become one of those “funny for all the wrong reasons” moments, especially with his fake laughter somewhere in the middle of the track.

Snarky opinion: Imagine Dragons from wish.com

Prediction: I would really like this to qualify but I remain on the fence until we’ve seen some rehearsal snapshots. To its advantage is that there's nothing else like this in its Semi.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year: Like in 2024, I correctly predicted qualification, though I overestimated Armenia's end result by a little. I guess I’m a bit of an Armenia-stan!

06. Austria

Entry: JJ – Wasted love

Language: English

Quick description: Popera meets techno

What came before? Austria has historically always been a bit of a jobber, with a small glory period between 2014 and 2018.

Best Austrian result so far: Won twice (1966 and 2014), came 3^rd once (2018). Also came last 7 times, but the last time that happened was in 1991.

Qualification streak: +2

Opinion: I think ‘Wasted love’ is an awesome entry in all the meanings of the word. While some have compared it to Nemo’s winning song from last year because of the operatic vocals, to me this one feels distinct enough to not be an uninspired copy. In fact, I think it does all the things Nemo did but does them even better. It remains to be seen whether the public thinks the same. Doing the vocal justice live should normally not be a problem (this is an area Austria has been spotty at in the past 5 years) as JJ is a trained opera vocalist.

Snarky opinion: What if Nemo but more bombastic?

Prediction: Qualification and then top 5.

Shot at winning: 30%. There is and has never been anything like it, and even response among casuals looks very strong. This is a track with incredible production values and grabs viewers by the neck, not letting up until its final note.

How bad was my prediction last year: 2023 and 2024 were kind of similar years. In both years, their entries were beloved by the fandom but hugely overestimated in my opinion. In both years, I went a little overboard with my predictions and thought they wouldn’t qualify, whereas they did, but in the end I felt slightly vindicated that both performed very poorly in the Grand Final. To be fair, 2024’s Kaleen wasn’t helped by a broadcast mishap during her performance.

--. United Kingdom

Entry: Remember Monday – What the hell just happened?

Language: English

Quick description: Queen-inspired mid-tempo girly banger

What came before? The UK has mostly been a Eurovision laughing stock in modern ESC history, culminating in back-to-back last places in 2019 and 2021 (the last of which even received the very first 'double nul' score). 2022 offered relief with a well-deserved 2^nd place and put the notion to bed people won’t vote for British entries because they’re British.

Best British result so far: Won five times (1967, 1969, 1976, 1981, 1997), came 2^nd 15(!) times (1959, 1960, 1961, 1964, 1965, 1968, 1970, 1975, 1977, 1988, 1989, 1992, 1993, 1998 and 2022) and 3^rd 3 times (1973, 1980, 2002). The UK also came last 5 times (2003, 2008, 2010, 2019, 2021).

Opinion: I’m afraid this one will land well short of expectations again. While the band exudes a carefree optimism and the song feels authentically British, reminiscent of Queen-like ‘80s pop, I’m afraid that the live version might come off chaotic and screechy. You’d think a country with a music industry as massive as the United Kingdom would find ways to prevent this, but it has consistently proven in the last 15 years that it fails almost every ESC assignment. It is a bit funny (and probably intentionally so) that ‘What the hell just happened?’ will come after an entry that has its bombast dialed up to 11.

Snarky opinion: 30-somethings still pretending they’re binge-drinking 20-somethings.

Prediction: Bottom 5. I know this is harsh and I hope I’ll be proven wrong for the British’ sake, but I’m nowhere near as optimistic as other analysts. A lot can be said about 2023’s Mae Muller and 2024’s Olly Alexander, but at least they had ambition. I’m not feeling that with this entry at all.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: While I didn’t share the top 10 visions most analysts had and thought a right-hand table finish was likely, even I hadn’t expected a bottom 5 result. The vocal wasn’t fully there and the staging was perhaps a bit too sexualised for the audience at large.  

07. Greece

Entry: Klavdia – Asteromáta

Language: Greek

Quick description: Melancholy ballad.

What came before? Greece's latter-day performances have been pretty inconsistent. The wave they rode on from 2001 to 2013 (barring some darker spots) seems to have abated, with the country relegated to subtop/middling status. 

Best Greek result so far: Won in 2005. Came 3^rd three times (2001, 2004 and 2008).

Qualification streak: +1

Opinion: A sweeping, epic ballad that feels true to Greek culture, led by a very capable vocalist (who bears more than a passing resemblance to Nana Moskouri). Greece doesn’t always stage well, but if it’s done right, I can see this making an impact, and it is easily a higher-quality offering than what we’re getting from Serbia and Montenegro. I honestly also think it’s a better ballad than what France has wheeled out.

Snarky opinion: -

Prediction: Qualifying, but not by much. The jury will show this love in the Grand Final.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly predicted qualification and was pretty spot on about a left-side table finish.

08. Lithuania

Entry: Katarsis – Tavo akys

Language: Lithuanian

Quick description: Dark emo rock

What came before? I would say they are mostly regarded a mid-tier nation with occasional cracks at the sub-top. It’s the only Baltic nation not to have won Eurovision, but they have had a pretty good track record in the recent years.

Best Lithuanian result so far: 6^th in 2006

Qualifcation streak: +4

Opinion: Very moody and sombre but not inaccessible. It will certainly stand out and I believe there is an audience for this, plus Lithuania reliably gets votes from its diaspora in the United Kingdom and Ireland, which will help Katarsis as well. Ultimately, the question is if enough of its target audience can be convinced. But I am part of that target audience (I love dark, brooding and melancholy music with an edge) and I have my doubts, especially about the very repetitive last minute.

Snarky opinion: Apocalyptic moaning that feels apt for the hellworld we live in.

Prediction: Qualifying, then relegated to bottom 10.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year: Nailed both qualification and eventual result.

09. Malta

Entry: Miriana Conte – SERVING

Language: English

Quick description: Naughty girlybop

What came before? Malta's recent record is quite spotty. They have a faint echo of the United Kingdom and Ireland's latter-day troubles in often trying to engineer a winning entry but then falling quite short. Around the early aughts there was buzz Malta was overdue for a win, but that noise has faded, even with a brief blip for Destiny's 2021 entry, that failed to produce an expected good result.

Best Maltese result so far: Came 2^nd twice (2002, 2005), and 3^rd twice (1992, 1998) as well. 

Qualification streak: -3

Opinion: This is probably one of the only entries casuals will have heard of during pre-season because it was originally named ‘Kant’ (Maltese for ‘singing’) and thus “serving kant” but the EBU requested last-minute it remove that word for its obviously thinly-veiled double entendre. Again, all quite apropos for the 69^th edition of the Contest. The entry itself is a fun bit of “yass queen” feminism and the fandom eats it up.

Snarky opinion: Let’s send a sassy fat lady again

Prediction: Qualifying, then ending up bottom 10. I’m not trying to be disparaging here, Malta has had big trouble attracting a sizable televote and failed to qualify with entries that were perfectly fine songs, so qualification is the goal in and off itself. People who think this might come top 5 while being aimed at a niche audience are delulu.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly saw the writing on the wall that Sarah Bonnici wasn’t going to qualify but her last place in her Semi was totally undeserved. Running order didn’t help.

10. Georgia

Entry: Mariam Shengelia – Freedom

Language: Georgian, English

Quick description: Old-fashioned and disjointed ballad 

What came before? If anything, Georgia tends to swing for the fences uncompromisingly (avant-garde house, angsty art rock, angry warrior songs, political disco, circus cabaret - basically Georgia has served up the entire traditional back catalogue of ESC in one speed run!). That deserves accolades, but the general audience hasn't been buying it. 

Best Georgian result so far: 9^th twice (2010, 2011).

Opinion: This unfortunately the typical product of a country broadcaster cowed by an increasingly authoritarian and pro-Russian regime: it’s always either bland kitsch braying about super-generic feelings and values, or thinly-veiled propaganda, and this entry somehow manages to be both. Mariam Shengelia is also known to be brazenly pro Georgian Dream, the party that has self-couped its way to authoritarianism in 2024. Disregarding all of that, the song feels abysmally dated, half-baked and much longer than its actual runtime and not in a good way. Sure, Shengelia can sing well and she looks very good, but this one is dead on arrival, arousing suspicions that it will be the excuse for Georgia to withdraw from the ESC next year. This convenient excuse is all the more helped by its shitty spot in the running order, coming right before a much better ballad.

Snarky opinion: Kitschy dictatorship ballad

Prediction: Not qualifying, potentially coming dead last in its Semi.

Shot at winning: -100%

How bad was my prediction last year? I correctly predicted Georgia would break its 6 NQ-streak.

--. France

Entry: Louane – Maman

Language: French

Quick description: Ballad

What came before? The last few years have revived France as an ESC participant who seems ardent to go for its 6^th win, especially after riding a wave of success in the JESC. I think France looms a bit larger in the minds of the enfranchised audience, and is often stuck in the unenviable position that the public seems to expect very stereotypically French entries (while brutally punishing the ones who don’t conform to the stereotype) but not always reward it with their votes.

Best French result so far: Won 5 times (1958, 1960, 1962, 1969, 1977), came 2^nd 5 times (1957, 1976, 1990, 1991 and 2021) and came 3^rd 7 times (1959, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1978, 1980 and 1981).

Opinion: Apparently this ballad about mums and motherhood really connects with a lot of people. While I agree it is the right mix of emotion and bombast at many points, I find the chorus to drag on for waaaay too long, and I hope France won’t repeat their weird staging mistakes of 2023 – this is a song that calls for intimate, subtle staging, not for the reveal they had during a rugby game at the Stade de France. Some analysts think this might win (as they thought in 2021, 2023 and 2024) but I personally don’t think it will. It for sure outshines the earlier ballads in this Semi though, which hurts the chances of Montenegro, Greece and Georgia, even if people can’t vote for France in this Semi.

Snarky opinion: Cliché ballad by France’s version of Adele

Prediction: Top 10

Shot at winning: 2%

How bad was my prediction last year: Kind of right. I had Slimane pegged for a top 15 spot, but he came 4^th.

11. Denmark

Entry: Sissal – Hallucination

Language: English

Quick description: Scandi mid-tempo house

What came before? Denmark has generally been on a downward trend since winning the ESC for the last time in 2013. Their broadcaster consistently refuses to put in the proper work, especially at staging, and seems to not have gotten the memo it's no longer 2013.

Best Danish result so far: Won twice (2000, 2013), came 2^nd once (2001) and came 3^rd two times (1988, 1989).

Qualification streak: -4

Opinion: I can actually copy-paste my 2024 opinion with little change: “Yes, the lyrics are kind of trite, but I like the overall composition of this song, the vocal sounds strong and the performer has some live stage presence. 'Hallucination' is an offering that would have shot to the top of the odds 10 years ago, but in a packed Contest like 2025, it may not stand out, and there are worries about potentially static staging. That the track liberally borrows from Loreen's signature style and sound is secondary.”

Snarky opinion: How to rip-off Loreen while totally not ripping off Loreen for the second time!

Prediction: Not qualifying if they don’t make huge changes to the staging.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I thought Denmark would scrape by an qualify, but they didn’t.

12. Czechia

Entry: ADONXS – Kiss kiss goodbye

Language: English

Quick description: Mid-tempo ballad

What came before? Czechia has yet to make any real impact on Eurovision, having only participated since 2007. Some of its entries have received modest hype, and the trendline looks mostly positive.

Best Czech result so far: 6^th place in 2018.

Qualification streak: -1

Opinion: A lot has been said about the fact that this song clearly needs to be experienced live during a show because it was created for that purpose, and I can buy that. ADONXS will stand out no matter what as the only male performer preceded by three female performers and succeeded by three female performers, so his running order is incredibly favourable. All in all, this song does nothing for me. I don’t hate it, but it feels like it was designed in a lab and has no actual meaning or emotion behind it.

Snarky opinion: Hot guy with a pedo moustache sings an AI-designed thing

Prediction: Until I see proof Czechia’s pulling out all the stops in their staging and execution, I think this could be a shock NQ.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly predicted NQ, but it’s not like Czechia didn’t try, and they honestly might have deserved to qualify for all the effort they put in.

13. Luxembourg

Entry: Laura Thorn – La poupée mont le son

Language: French

Quick description: Girlybop

What came before? Luxembourg came back to the ESC last year after a 31-year absence. The EBU rewarded them for this (and also the fat wads of cash they bring) by giving them one of the best slots to celebrate it. This makes it all the more sour that Montenegro wasn’t offered anything of the sort this year, but I digress.

Best Luxembourgian result so far: Won 5 times (1961, 1965, 1972, 1973, 1983), came 3^rd twice (1962, 1986). They also came last 3 times (1958, 1960, 1970).

Qualification record: +1

Opinion: Once again the EBU gods have decided to grant Luxembourg a favourable running order, but it will also be (kind of) Luxembourg’s moment of truth now that the sheen of its return has waned off and they can’t ride the coattails of Israel support (last year’s contestant was Israeli). I like their entry. It’s a pastiche of French pop from the 1960s to the 1980s with a fresh coat of paint, and Laura Thorn can obviously sing well and has stage presence. The homage to their 1965 win will also not be lost on the enfranchised audience. It’s not very original though, and perhaps Luxembourg had been better served by sending their darker version of the song.

Snarky opinion: French JESC entry.

Prediction: Qualification, then right-hand side of the scoring table.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly predicted qualification but I did think it would do worse in the GF.

--. Germany

Entry: Abor & Tynna – Baller

Language: German

Quick description: German EDM

What came before? Germany's been on a long string of disappointing results with a kind of airy "throw things at the wall and see what sticks" vibe. Last year offered reprieve with an unexpected 12^th place.

Best German result so far: Won twice (1982 and 2010), 2^nd place 4 times (1980, 1981, 1985, 1987) and 3^rd place 5 times (1970, 1971, 1972, 1994, 1999). They also came last 9 times. For a country with its pedigree of participations, results have been very underwhelming since the early 1980s.

Opinion: ‘Baller’ is Germany’s first entry in German in 18 years and the 2^nd one in 5 years I actually really like, highlighting an ongoing trend of countries going back to their native language(s) to participate. It’s a fresh, youthful and current bit of EDM pop offering that also feels true to Germany’s home music scene. There are a few doubts about the main vocal (although it isn’t particularly demanding), but normally Germany should be able to follow through on its unexpected top 15 placement with Isaak last year. 

Snarky opinion: Scantily clad young lady destroying music instrument for no reason

Prediction: Top 15. I honestly think it should score even higher, but this is Germany we’re talking about so caution is advised.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I predicted bottom 10 but Germany surprised everyone, even with its weird staging and pretty mid song, by coming 12^th and picking up some jury love. So I’ve been wrong about Germany for two years in a row now.

14. Israel

Why are you ignoring Israel's entry? Israel is committing genocide in Gaza and to a lesser extent on the West Bank, is acquiring the trappings of an illiberal, fascist state, and even before that, it had already become a racist Apartheid nation. It’s an utter disgrace it is still allowed to participate in Eurovision. Continued silence among Europe’s leading political class is even worse and makes most European countries tacit accomplices in Israel’s genocide.

Okay, but it’s a song contest and it’s ostensibly a non-political event? Eurovision is probably the biggest political event of the year in Europe that swears it’s not political. Also, Russia was yeeted from the Contest in 2022 for its second invasion of Ukraine, and Belarus alongside it for good measure, even if Belarus has factually committed far less evil than Israel has.

Israel is participating though, so couldn’t you at least treat their entry like all the others? No. It seized its participation last year to engage in a worldwide campaign among reactionaries and right-wing ghouls to rake in as many televote points as it could (which is not illegal, but speaks volumes about the bad faith with which it is now in the ESC). Its broadcaster and delegation was known for constantly harassing and disparaging candidates from countries known to be critical of Israel (notably Ireland and Spain). To put the cherry on top of the shit cake, Joost Klein was disqualified for what seems to be a non-incident after the fact, while Israel only got the most milquetoast of slaps on the wrist for behaving much worse. While I have no proof, I think the incident to get Joost Klein disqualified was either also instigated or blown out of proportion by the Israeli delegation. Even with some new guardrails in place, I’m 99.9% sure Israel is going to try their manipulation and crybullying (= pretending you're the victim while you're actually the bully) tactics again.

Shouldn't you judge the song on its own merits, disregarding politics? Yuval Raphael has chosen to go, she wasn't forced. Even in unfree countries like Azerbaijan, most performers can still choose not to participate in ESC without dire consequences.

About that, why aren't you coming down on those countries? Most of them no longer participate. The only real sore point here is Azerbaijan’s invasion of Artsakh in 2024, but there are two major differences that are both geopolitical and human: Artsakh was never recognised by any government and its status was mostly the result of Armenia waging war on Azerbaijan in the 1990s. And second, no one died. Not to say that it wasn't ethnic cleansing (it was!), but I can't see how this stacks up to over 50,000 Gazan civilians killed in 1,5 years, many among them children.

Sure, but Israel's neighbours would like to basically do a Holocaust 2.0. They do. Does that justify murdering children, journalists and bombing humanitarian aid convoys, though? You could say bad dudes like the ayatollahs or Mohammad bin-Salman would happily do the same, but they're dictators. If we're going to compare like for like, Israel's government at least has some degree of popular legitimacy. That is why war crimes committed by ostensibly democratic governments are so much worse - their populations could choose not to vote these thugs into office, but they do. Even if you believe Israel has a right to exist (which isn't unreasonable if you think of what happened in World War II), the fact that Israel blithely ignores its UN-imposed 1947 borders, kills journalists, blocks and bombs humanitarian aid convoys as well as wantonly kills children should tell you we're dealing with a bad actor here.

Prediction: Booed throughout. Probably qualifying, but I don’t think the right-wing idiot support is going to turn out as strongly as it did last year, what with Israel’s genocide having become undeniable.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year? I correctly predicted Eden Golan would be booed throughout her entire performance, but I had no idea the EBU has been employing anti-booing technology since the mid-tens (first used to cover Russian entries). This adds another level to the shame and disgrace. It also does nothing for the performer, who can still clearly hear the whole arena’s hostility and vitriol. This really is North Korea-style censorship.

My man, why not just boycott the entire show? See my first blog post of this season.

15. Serbia

Entry: Princ – Mila

Language: Serbian

Quick description: Musical theatre ballad

What came before? Serbia won the Eurovision Song Contest on its first entry as an independent nation in 2007, with Marija Šerifović's 'Molitva'. Serbia tended to do pretty well after, usually qualifying for the final, with latter-day entries showing a really versatile and exciting side of Serbia's music scene. Serbia has one of the longest current qualification streaks.

Best Serbian result so far: Won once (2007), came 3^rd once (2012).

Qualification streak: +6

Opinion: After years of getting crap running order slots, the EBU decided to give a little gift to Serbia. And they’ll need it in a Semi already jam-packed with ballads. There are no doubts about Princ’s vocal abilities but he could be outstaged by more memorable entries if they bring better staging. All in all, this isn’t for me but I do believe there is an audience for this kind of rather schmalzy pathos.

Snarky opinion: Big burly musical theatre version of 'Molitva'.

Prediction: Qualifying, then ending mid-table.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly predicted qualification.

16. Finland

Entry: Erika Vikman – Ich komme

Language: English, German

Quick description: Horny EDM

What came before?  While often qualifying for the Grand Final, Finland usually strands there unceremoniously mid-table. Finland has tried out all manner of genres, artists and vibes, but seems to score best with rock and metal, which is unsurprising, since the country has the highest density of metal bands per 1,000 inhabitants.  

Best Finnish result so far: Won once (2006) with fondly-remembered monster rockers Lordi, who arguably ushered in the prelude to ESC's current Golden Age. Came 2^nd once, too, with the memorable Käärijä (2023).

Qualification streak: +4

Opinion: What better song to close the horniest ESC on its 69^th edition than this (“Ich komme” means “I’m cumming” in German)? It’s a spectacular, fun and high-energy entry that should do quite well if Erika can keep her vocal under control. In the UMK final it sounded a little shaky at the beginning. Some have pegged (pun unintended) it as a potential winner.

Snarky opinion: Conservatives’ Nordic nightmare.

Prediction: Qualifying and then top 5.

Shot at winning: 2% if it comes together live really well. It will get televote love for sure, but I’m uncertain about the jury.

How bad was my prediction last year: Correctly predicted qualification. 

So who's qualifying

I will revisit my predictions once I've seen some rehearsal and pre-party footage, but as it stands, I think this is the most likely list of qualifiers, in no particular order:

• Finland
• Greece
• Australia
• Malta
• Austria
• Latvia
• Lithuania
• Serbia
• Ireland
• Czechia