This is the second part of a twofer where I discuss my opinions and predictions on Eurovision 2023. Drop down the blog for my first part on generalities and Semi-Final 1.
Semi-final 2
Denmark
Entry: Reiley - Breaking my heart
Language: English
Quick description: Gen Z bedroom pop with a dash of Charli XCX
What came before? Denmark has generally been on a downward trend since winning the ESC for the last time in 2013.
Best Danish result so far: Won twice (2000, 2013), came 2nd once (2001) and came 3rd two times (1988, 1989).
Opinion: While 'Breaking my heart' is a fine pop song, its Gen Z sensibilities and presentation will turn off some older audiences, even if there's nothing wrong with the track. Some people are just inter-generational curmudgeons. Apart from that, nothing about is particularly bold, inventive or engrossing, and the heavily processed vocals could be a problem to get right live. Gen Z voters could also stay away from the track for feeling too much aimed at them.
Biggest competitor: Superficially, perhaps Greece's "pretty boy", but they live in wildly different genres and Greece has the better vocalist. In terms of jiving with the 2023 spirit, Armenia has a better offering and has more wind under their wings.
Prediction: Not qualifying.
Shot at winning: 0%.
Armenia
Entry: Brunette - Future lover
Language: English, Armenian
Quick description: Caucasus hyper-pop ballad
What came before? With three exceptions, ever since Armenia's first participation in 2006, they've qualified for every Grand Final. While Rosa Linn only came 20th in 2022's Grand Final, her song exploded all over the world through TikTok later.
Best Armenian result so far: 4th in 2008 and 2014.
Opinion: The enfranchised ESC audience expects a lot from Armenia. They understand it would really like to win the Contest sooner rather than later, and their cards don't look bad at all. A lot will depend on Brunette's live performance, but at least the production sounds smooth and very much "now", and it also helps that Brunette herself is conventionally very charismatic and attractive but seems smart enough to sort of downplay these factors that speak for themselves.
Biggest competitor: If voters consider Armenia's entry neutrally, its biggest competitor is likely Iceland. If not, then it would be Georgia. Either entry is also pretty well-crafted, so it will be tough, but they could also lift up each other.
Prediction: Qualifying.
Shot at winning: 1%, if Brunette displays an amped-up version of her stage presence.
Romania
Language: English, Romanian
Quick description: Strip club jazzrock
What came before? Romania has been consigned to the lower-middle of the pack for over a decade now, despite some really brave attempts to storm the top of the mountain. There's also been a spate of bad luck, e.g. Roxen's much-vaunted 'Amnesia' was probably too ambitious in terms of staging, and Cézar's incredible 'It's my life' likely a bit too avant-garde for its time (although it is now a cherished part of ESC history).
Best Romanian result so far: 3rd in 2005 and 2010.
Opinion: Judging by how the track was performed in its national selection, I feel this is a huge step back from Romania's recent entries. Its Contest staging will need to put in a lot of work to make this track more palatable. 'D.G.T.''s production feels at once grating and undercooked and the vocals give me a strong vibe of a young man pretending to be a much older man. That is to say nothing of the gratuitous staging. If there is a connection to the song's content, it's clearly not visible, and gratuitous lingerie hasn't been a crowd-draw at ESC since 2006 at least, if ever.
Biggest competitor: San Marino, although that entry isn't particularly good either, so both might in fact drag each other down.
Prediction: Not qualifying.
Shot at winning: 0%.
Estonia
Entry: Alika - Bridges
Language: English
Quick description: Classic ballad
What came before? Estonia seems to finally have run out of telegenic, hot men to send to Eurovision.
Best Estonian result so far: Won in 2002, 3rd in 2003.
Opinion: It's hard to judge this track. While classic ballads such as this one haven't performed very well in the last 15 years, they still enjoy a significant fan base. Also, if staged well, Alika can definitely bring one of those typical "powerful vocal" moments that could make it stand out a good deal. Last year, Poland's 'River' proved that there is still room for sincere and powerful ballads supported by classically-trained singers, but that their appeal may ultimately be limited.
Biggest competitor: Cyprus. Lithuania, to some extent.
Prediction: Qualifying, then ending up in the upper right side of the table.
Shot at winning: 0%.
Belgium
Entry: Gustaph - Because of you
Language: English
Quick description: 2010s house pop
What came before? Disclaimer - I am Belgian. Anyway, Belgium's recent ESC history has been spotty, which isn't helped by the annual switch between Flemish and Walloon broadcasters selecting an entry. Still, there is a kooky legacy image with Telex, Pas de Deux and Urban Trad, who proudly continued Belgium's tradition of surrealism writ large.
Best Belgian result so far: Won in 1986, came 2nd in 2003, but also came last 8 times.
Opinion: While unfortunately appearing as the wish.com version of Boy George, Gustaph lives and breathes Eurovision. He might benefit from a bump if flanking performances are slow ballads or artsy stuff and if the staging is good. Also, nothing about the song is particularly bad or offensive, whereas e.g. Romania and Poland are taking more risks. Given that Semi-Final 2 is the weaker of the two, he has a decent chance at progressing.
Biggest competitor: In terms of genre: no one. In terms of energy: Greece, Iceland, Poland, Slovenia.
Prediction: Qualifying, but barely. Then left stranded in the right half of the Grand Final's table, possibly even in last position.
Shot at winning: 0%.
Cyprus
Language: English
Quick description: Howling power ballad, equal parts Ochman and Duncan Lawrence
What came before? Many people are aware Cyprus would really like to win the ESC one day. At the very least, they usually put in the effort, even if results are often not commensurate.
Best Cypriot result so far: Came 2nd in 2018. Cyprus holds the record for most performances without a single win - standing at 39 years now.
Opinion: If Estonia's Alina is Ochman's technical successor, Andrew is his spiritual one, though I find his offering a bit more immediately engaging and bigger. More so than with other entries, a lot is riding on the quality of his live vocal, but he is certainly already blessed with charisma and good looks. Let's hope Cyprus doesn't repeat their static, messy staging mistakes from 2022, which likely cost Andromache a place in the finals.
Biggest competitor: Estonia and to a lesser extent Greece. Quality-wise I think Cyprus beats both though.
Prediction: Qualifying, unless Andrew's vocal falters.
Shot at winning: 0%.
Iceland
Entry: Diljá - Power
Language: English
Quick description: Chase & Status-inspired power pop.
What came before? Iceland has been more willing to experiment than other Scandinavian countries, sometimes to their detriment. They have generally been re-cast into a favourable spotlight with the general audience after - believe it or not - 2019's divisive but uncompromising Hattari.
Best Icelandic result so far: Came 2nd in 1999 and 2009.
Opinion: While a considerably safer entry than what Iceland has put out since 2019, 'Power' has infectious energy and a performer who sells the package. It doesn't try to be too cute or clever, and while all elements are there for a good show, the current version feels a little rough around the edges still. I'm not sold on the "teenage girl dancing around in her bedroom" choreo routine. It's endearing, for sure, but not a winner.
Biggest competitor: In terms of messaging, Poland, but Poland's entry looks even more like a cynical ploy compared to this. The British entry is also a bit similar.
Prediction: Qualifying.
Shot at winning: 1%, if the favourites falter and this track's staging is vastly improved.
Greece
Language: English
Quick description: Post-punk-tinged singer songwriting with equal parts Ed Sheeran and Tom Odell.
What came before? Greece's latter-day performances have been pretty inconsistent. The wave they rode on from 2001 to 2013 (barring some darker spots) seems to have abated, with the country relegated to middling status. The past two years have seen an upward trend again, however, mostly by embracing more conventional Western pop-rock.
Best Greek result so far: Won in 2005. Came third in 2001, 2004 and 2008.
Opinion: Like the two entries that preceded it, Victor Vernicos's entry doesn't feel very Greek, no matter how nebulous that qualification is. However, it's also fishing in that same pond of very "now" pop-trendiness with gusto and might prove once and for all that Greece certainly shouldn't limit itself to Balkan bops or traditional Greek music. 'What they say' is very radio-friendly, features very slick production and has a charismatic young performer at the helm.
Biggest competitor: Denmark has similar "now" sensibilities and Slovenia exudes a similar youthful energy, but I think Greece bests both. Their entry is more broadly accessible than Denmark's, and has more personality than Slovenia's.
Prediction: Qualifying.
Shot at winning: 1%, if the stars align and the absolute favorites don't deliver.
Poland
Entry: Blanka - Solo
Language: English
Quick description: A Paris Hilton summer bop from Poland
What came before? Poland has had a bit of a jobber image for the past 15 years at the contest, with entries all over the place, but rarely ending up in a good place.
Best Polish result so far: 2nd place in 1994, on their very first participation.
Opinion: A lot has been said about this track, and most of it not terribly nice on account of suspected foul play during its national selection as well as Blanka's flat, nasal and halting performance at the national finals. Judging it by its current best version (the official video), I feel the chorus has enough bubblegum and cuteness to make it memorable, but the rest is kind of forgettable. I'm unfortunately reminded of Malta's 2022 entry, which featued a similarly upbeat track with a conventionally pretty performer, but felt more like a Junior Eurovision entry in terms of both message and quality, without wanting to disparage the junior performers. If Blanka's staging and performance remain sub-par, she might even be destined for ignominy.
Biggest competitor: Belgium and Slovenia, maybe, but both feel more mature and polished.
Prediction: Not qualifying.
Shot at winning: 0%.
Slovenia
Entry: Joker Out - Carpe diem
Language: Slovenian
Quick description: Look, it's LPS again, but they've grown older!
What came before? While not outright losing in the Grand Finals, Slovenia's record is a pretty bleak one. They don't carry the best image to ESC, and frankly never did.
Best Polish result so far: 7th two times (1995, 2001).
Opinion: Every edition, there are one or two tracks hyped by the in-crowd that don't only leave me cold, but I can't understand the hype at all. 'Carpe diem' is that track for 2023. Some people talk about how relieved they are that Joker Out brings genuine energy compared to LPS's dud last year (last place in the semis), but I honestly think this one isn't much better. It even has a similar 'forgettable all-male pop band of young guys vibe'. There's no way it stands out.
Biggest competitor: Maybe Belgium or San Marino, but San Marino sells the rock part better and Belgium's entry feels more ready for a Friday night.
Prediction: Not qualifying.
Shot at winning: 0%.
Georgia
Entry: Iru - Echo
Language: English
Quick description: Ethnic-inspired 'go big'
What came before? If anything, Georgia tends to swing for the fences uncompromisingly (avant-garde house, angsty art rock, angry warrior songs, political disco, circus cabaret - basically Georgia has served up the entire traditional back catalogue of ESC in one speed run!). That deserves accolades, but the general audience hasn't been buying it.
Best Georgian result so far: 9th twice (2010, 2011).
Opinion: Like Germany and Slovenia, I feel that by now Georgia's terrible reputation has become its own millstone. However undeserved that reputation I feel is and I think history will be far kinder to Georgia, I like Iru's entry. If the staging and performance is as impressive as the video clip suggests, it will be an eye-catching song that elevates on its more traditional 'ethnic' sound. The only minor quibble I have is that Iru's vocals are nigh-unintelligible.
Biggest competitor: Albania, but I find Georgia's entry fresher.
Prediction: Qualifying, and hopely better than 9th place in the Grand Finals.
Shot at winning: 0%.
San Marino
Language: English
Quick description: Pop rock
What came before? While I'm convinced San Marino's participations are a ploy by the microstate's Office of Tourism, lately they have seemed to become more serious about maybe winning. With only 3 qualifications out of 13 performances, things don't look very encouraging, unfortunately.
Best Sammarinese result so far: 19th in 2019. Yeah.
Opinion: 'Like an animal' is a competently made rock track that packs some punch, disregarding the version of the song we got to see in advance, that was kind of muted in terms of audio mixing. While it doesn't share the brash camp energy of Achille Lauro's entry and doesn't feel like winner-bait like Senhit's 'Adrenalina' from 2021, it also doesn't have that much going for it.
Biggest competitor: Australia, which is leagues better at this with their entry, unfortunately.
Prediction: Not qualifying.
Shot at winning: 0%.
Austria
Language: English
Quick description: Quirky hipster pop with an intellectual edge
What came before? Three failed qualifications in a row have taken off a bit of the edge of Austria's lustre off of their 2014 victory and 2018 bronze medal. Austria is back firmly in the pack of generally sub-par contestants.
Best Austrian result so far: Won twice (1966 and 2014). Also came last 7 times, but the last time that happened was in 1991.
Opinion: I'm not personally a fan of this track. I find it a bit jumbled structurally and too lacking in substance. If you're going to make coy references to Edgar Allan Poe and Shakespeare's ghosts inhabiting your body, better make it either deep or funny, and this is neither to sufficient degrees. Still, it is a bold choice and the performers do not lack for energy. I could also be completely off base, seeing the positive response from the enfranchised audience. I was also dead wrong about Serbia's off-beat entry last year, and audiences lapped it up enthusiastically.
Biggest competitor: Maybe Romania in terms of zaniness, but Austria's entry is much more mature.
Prediction: Not qualifying.
Shot at winning: 0%.
Albania
Language: Albanian
Quick description: Wailing Balkan power pop.
What came before? While Eurovision's enfranchised audience has embraced Albania as one of those countries that offer entries truer to their native culture, this has never translated into good results, with a pretty spotty qualification record.
Best Albanian result so far: 5th in 2012.
Opinion: A lot will depend on this entry's staging and performance. I unfortunately feel like this entry is stuck in an early 2000s mindset where Balkan pop and power ballads were relatively new and felt authentic to the Eurovision audience. 'Duje' doesn't do anything unexpected, and similar entries in recent years haven't performed well, either. Its saving grace could be it's now the only entry in its lane, where it might have faced competition from similar entries from Turkey or Montenegro earlier.
Biggest competitor: Georgia.
Prediction: Qualifying.
Shot at winning: 1%, if the stars align and the absolute favorites don't deliver.
Lithuania
Entry: Monika Linkytė - Stay
Language: English, Lithuanian
Quick description: Power ballad.
What came before? Lithuania has alternated decent years with years of not qualifying. I would say they are mostly regarded a mid-tier nation with occasional cracks at the sub-top.
Best Lithuanian result so far: 6th in 2006.
Opinion: Lithuania is often willing to switch it up and try new things. 'Stay' isn't one of these entries, and is the quintessential Eurovision power ballad. Nothing about the song is incompetent or too boring, but nothing really stands out (except the odd idiosyncrasy of the all-bronze outfit) either. If Estonia and/or Greece manage to elevate their material - and I think they musically have more to work with - I'm afraid of this one's chances.
Biggest competitor: Estonia and Greece.
Prediction: Qualifying, but barely and only on the back of a relatively weak Semi-Final.
Shot at winning: 0%.
Australia
Entry: Voyager - Promise
Language: English
Quick description: Electropop meets power metal
What came before? Despite this only being Australia's 8th performance, their record so far is very impressive. Apart from the most hardened skeptics or casuals who believe Australia doesn't 'belong' in ESC, our friends from down-under have more than earned their keep, and it feels like it's only a matter of time until they win ESC. Part of me likes to believe Australia led the way for the UK to show them how it's done as an English-speaking nation to reinvent themselves at the Contest.
Best Australian result so far: 2nd in 2016.
Opinion: I don't think there's ever been an entry combining electropop and metal at Eurovision, not to mention any song that seems to meld both so effortlessly. The '80s power chords and ditto vocals shift into metal grunts and elevated power-pop singing with ease, and the chorus is an earworm to boot. This the good stuff.
Biggest competitor: In the Grand Finals: Germany, most definitely, but I think Australia's offering edges out Germany's for feeling fresher and even more out-of-the-box. It is possible that after out-Britting the Brits, Australia is now out-Germaning the Germans. What a country.
Prediction: Qualifying comfortably, then top 10.
Shot at winning: 8% if the stars align.
My qualifying prediction for semi-final 2:
- Australia
- Austria
- Armenia
- Belgium
- Cyprus
- Estonia
- Georgia
- Iceland
- Lithuania
- Slovenia
The Big Five and Ukraine
France
Entry: La Zarra - Évidemment
Language: French
Quick description: French jazz-pop
What came before? While results have largely been undewhelming for France in the past 20 years, the country still holds a lot of distinction because of its apparent refusal to bend to trends (even if this isn't really true). Like Spain, the United Kingdom and Germany, France has mostly been in a big funk, barring 2021's second place.
Best French result so far: Won 5 times (1958, 1960, 1962, 1969, 1977), came 2nd 5 times (1957, 1976, 1990, 1991 and 2021) and came 3rd 7 times (1959, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1978, 1980 and 1981).
Opinion: While the enfranchised audience seems to enjoy 'Évidemment' a lot, the same was true for most of their other recent entries, nearly all of which failed to perform well in the Grand Final. While the song has the typical French self-confidence and maturity going for it and it is well-produced, with a seasoned performer at the helm, it doesn't feel fundamentally different to many of their previous entries. Those didn't work well, and I fail to see how 'Évidemment' would change that. On a more personal note, I was very surprised that last year's 'Fulenn' garnered so few votes. Perhaps France is one of those countries trapped in the unenviable position of having to perform what the public at large expects of them, while that same public generally doesn't really like their performances, excepting Barbara Pravi's 2021 entry, which lost out only because Italy was even better at doing this.
Biggest competitor: Lithuania operates in a similar space, but France's entry looks more self-assured.
Shot at winning: 0%.
Germany
Language: English
Quick description: Glamour metal opera, or Lordi on a more LBGTQI vibe.
What came before? Germany's been on a long string of disappointing results with a kind of airy "throw things at the wall and see what sticks" vibe.
Best German result so far: Won twice (1982 and 2010), 2nd place 4 times (1980, 1981, 1985, 1987) and 3rd place 5 times (1970, 1971, 1972, 1994, 1999). They also came last 8 times. For a country with its pedigree of participations, results have mostly been very underwhelming since the early 1980s.
Opinion: For one, rock and metal have been fully rehabilitated at the ESC for a while now, and that's a good thing. Second, its an energetic track that embraces its own boldness and has a distinct identity, with a vocalist that is just as distinct and charismatic. If the campy and more glam rock stylings of the song gel together well with the screams and double basses, I think this will be a memorable performance worth talking about and voting for. Unfortunately, Germany has been the red-headed stepchild of the Contest in the public image for so long, it might get dragged down below its station due to the ESC baggage it carries.
Biggest competitor: Australia, for sure, but they could also lift each other up.
Prediction: By all rights, this should end up in the top half at least.
Shot at winning: 3%, if the performance blows everyone else out of the water.
Italy
Entry: Marco Mengoni - Due vite
Language: Italian
Quick description: Traditional Italian rock ballad
What came before? After re-entering Eurovision in 2011, Italy definitively buried the notion the Big Four (henceforth Five) don't perform well because people don't like them. They were just bad, and Italy called them out on it. With 10 out of 12 entries reaching the top 10 since their re-entry, Italy stand as one of the current-day Eurovision superpowers.
Best Italian result so far: Won 3 times (1964, 1990 and 2021), 2nd place 3 times (1974, 2011, 2019) and 3rd place 5 times (1958, 1963, 1975, 1987, 2015). 1958's third-placed 'Nel blu, dipinto di blu' is apparently also the world's most-covered song.
Opinion: Italy have been suffering from the 'Sweden Disease', in that their image as a Eurovision great will pull up even weaker entries, and I'm afraid this will come into effect here again. 'Due vite' feels like a weaker rethread of 'Fai rumore' combined with last year's 'Brividi'. As it stands, the staging looks uninspiring and the song itself is anything that could have participated in Eurovision from 1985 onwards. While its timelessness, quality vocal and good production will garner it votes, it will mainly have to count on its Italianness to carry it through.
Biggest competitor: Any of the power ballads that make it through to the Grand Finals.
Prediction: This might actually not perform all that well and end up bottom 5.
Shot at winning: 0%.
Spain
Entry: Blanca Paloma - Eaea
Language: Spanish
Quick description: A scorching Spanish flamenco elegy
What came before? After almost 20 years of languishing in the desert of near-bottom and bottom-tier entries, Spain surprisingly reinvented itself in 2022.
Best Spanish result so far: Won twice (1968, 1969), came 2nd 4 times (1971, 1973, 1979, 1995) and came 3rd twice (1984, 2022).
Opinion: Where to start. I am generally not a fan of Spanish entries into Eurovision. Most of them have been bad, boring or derivative. But just as surprised I was at Chanel's high-powered, charismatic performance last year, I am super-excited that Spain have chosen to continue their upward trajectory in terms of quality - and then some. 'Eaea' offers not only a devastating vocal performance that smartly blends electronic beeps and basses with traditional (but difficult) polyphony, the song eschews traditional pop track structures completely and offers a full-blown, hair-raising elegiac. I don't think understanding even a shred of Spanish is necessary to feel the raw emotion here, and if the internal selection's staging is anything to go by, we could be in for a real treat. The only possible downside I see is that the general audience might think it a bit too intense. However, I cannot see e.g. audiences in Southern Europe and the Balkans not liking this.
Biggest competitor: There is nothing like it. In fact, it might riff off of the contrast with cooler and understated entries like Ukraine's.
Shot at winning: 10%.
Ukraine
Entry: TVORCHI - Heart of steel
Language: English
Quick description: Slick futurist hip-hop by way of 2008 Justin Timberlake
What came before? Ukraine is a current Eurovision superpower on par with Sweden and Italy. Its image looms large with even the casual Eurovision viewer, discounting the terrible war the country finds itself in. Ukraine is a country that seems to understand the modern Festival at its core. Since entering the contest in 2003, they have never not qualified for the Grand Final.
Best Ukrainian result so far: Won 3 times (2004, 2016 and obviously, 2022), came 2nd twice (2007, 2008) and 3rd once (2013).
Opinion: I have the impression 'Heart of steel' is flying deeply under the radar for many people. On the one hand, there are residual feelings of Ukraine "stealing" last year's contest (which I don't believe), on the other hand, 'Heart of steel' may sound a bit too small or underwhelming at first. However, there is nothing like it in the contest, the production is superb and its vibe is testament to a coherent pop vision of what it should be.
Biggest competitor: Armenia and Israel occupy conceptually somewhat similar spaces, but even that is a stretch. We have never had really competitive hip-hop at ESC, and this could be it.
Shot at winning: 15%.
United Kingdom
Entry: Mae Muller - I wrote a song
Language: English
Quick description: Empowering girl-pop in the style of Mabel
What came before? While the UK had been a Eurovision laughing stock, culminating in back-to-back last places in 2019 and 2021 (the last of which even received the very first 'double nul' score), Sam Ryder's 2nd place last year completely revitalised the UK. Ryder's work is not to be underestimated, because at the time, British entries were suffering not just from bad quality, but also from simply being British.
Best British result so far: Won five times (1967, 1969, 1976, 1981, 1997), came 2nd 15(!) times (1959, 1960, 1961, 1964, 1965, 1968, 1970, 1975, 1977, 1988, 1989, 1992, 1993, 1998 and 2022) and 3rd 3 times (1973, 1980, 2002). The UK also came last 5 times (2003, 2008, 2010, 2019, 2021)..
Opinion: While Sam Ryder brought a mixture of Elton John and poppy David Bowie back to Eurovision to be celebrated as quintessential British music sensibilities, and with heaps of charisma to boot, Mae Muller seems to be taking a more modern approach but still in the same footsteps. I'm all the more glad for it, after almost 20 years of dull, fearful and silly crap that tried to engineer success for the biggest common denominator, while losing track of what makes British music so unique and popular across the world. 'I wrote a song' is both snappy and upbeat, with good production and an unmistakably Bri'ish spoken bridge I quite enjoy the sassiness of.
Biggest competitor: If Iceland and Norway make it to the final, they operate in similar content territory, but Mae Muller's offering feels more self-aware and mature. I still think this will do well, likely even top 10. Let's hope the Britainassance continues.
Shot at winning: 8%.
My predictions for the Grand Final:
- Sweden
- Serbia
- Finland
- Czechia
- Spain
- Moldova
- Australia
- United Kingdom
- Ukraine
- Germany
- Netherlands
- Cyprus
- Iceland
- Armenia
- Georgia
- Austria
- Malta
- Italy
- Norway
- France
- Switzerland
- Azerbaijan
- Slovenia
- Lithuania
- Belgium
- Estonia
