Eurovision Song Contest 2024: On the eve of the Grand Final

So the semis have now come and gone. I correctly predicted 16/20 finalists. In a field with 31 competing entries, that’s slightly better than random and my score is mostly saved by SF1, which was the more predictable of the two semis.

General observations

The past decade has seen the quality of entries on a steady rise. The early naughts are starting to look like a foreign land and entries that could have comfortably qualified a decade ago are now fiercely competing against entries of a similar quality. I realise that part of this is caused by less committed and/or less well-financed countries leaving the Contest, but even countries backed by fewer resources like San Marino and Moldova bring at least respectable entries and shows. 

• Among the Big Five, barring Germany, each of them has rediscovered or continued its drive to win rather than hang on in grim resignation. 
• Unless an entry brings the party or does something novel, even a partially bad vocal is now a death knell.
• Running order still matters, but its importance is a little exaggerated.
• Obvious DOA entries are getting rarer - this year had just one and 2023 and 2022 each had three. Compare to 2019, that at least had five or six.

Other notes

Belgium

As most analysts had predicted, SF2 this year was very hard to predict. As a Belgian, I am obviously disappointed that our qualification streak was broken but it was not entirely unexpected. I hope both VRT and RTBF realise they need to amp up their efforts and not cling to copium as to why we didn’t make it. Possible excuses could be:

• “Mustii’s vocal wasn’t perfect, but the vocal performances from Austria, Greece and the Netherlands also weren't good and they still made it”: yes, but for party songs vocal performance doesn’t matter (that much).
• “The audience doesn’t understand sophisticated pop songs”: it does, if it’s staged correctly. Serbia made the cut in ’22 and ’23 and Ireland made it this year.

Belgium's three-year qualification streak was flimsy anyway, each time progressing by tight margins. Other countries that used to have similar streaks like Azerbaijan and Albania found out as well that this doesn’t keep working, the former last year and the latter also this year. I hope VRT treats our 2025 participation seriously and/or attracts talent that’s a cut above the crop we saw in 2023.

Three 6-NQ streaks ended, two 3-NQ streaks are continuing

I’m very happy for Ireland, Latvia and Georgia that their long NQ streaks have ended. In the case of Latvia, I’m actually quite sure that Dons’s rock-solid showing pushed out Belgium. Unfortunately, Denmark and San Marino’s NQ strings are continuing, with each at 4 consecutive NQs. I would like to believe neither scored rock bottom because they had solid packages.

Ukraine keeps its 100% qualification rate

If anyone ever says again Ukraine won in 2022 because Europe felt sympathetic to their plight, show them this. It is frankly insane how well Ukraine understands Eurovision. At this rate they’ll have their 5th win long before some other countries that have never won have nabbed their first. Also yes, Luxembourg now technically has a 100% qualification record as well, but come on. 

Israel needs to be booted from the Contest

There was some booing during the Semi but it was drowned out by the cheers. We have to wait and see what the actual televote for Israel was, but I’m afraid it will strengthen the EBU in its belief that this genocidal Apartheid state belongs in the Contest. The EBU’s excuse that Israel has an independent broadcaster while Russia does not is laughable. The Caucasus countries have serious problems in that regard, and I’m sure the EBU would welcome back Türkiye and Hungary with open arms. Unfortunately, Israel now also shot up in the bookies’ odds. Their entry winning Eurovision 2024 would be nothing short of disgusting and pretending it’s anything else is hypocrisy.

Fake edit: I was drafting my post before a few more things came to light:

• The EBU switched off the audience mikes during Israel's performance and pasted a cheering tape on top because booing from the audience was too loud. There are several amateur recordings from within the audience that show this.
• At the time of posting, there is now also an ongoing controversy regarding continued Dutch participation in Eurovision 2024 but it looks like it was instigated by Israeli crybullying (to non-natives: "crybullying" is bullying others while pretending you're the real victim). The EBU pushing out the Netherlands would be a catastrophic mistake and might even cause me not to watch the Grand Final at all.

The Grand Final: state of play

With the running order now known and the bookmakers’ odds hardening like resin, let’s try and make some predictions.

Winners’ circle: Croatia and Switzerland are still the two most likely winners in my mind, followed by Italy, Ukraine and, distantly, France and - sigh - Israel, apparently. I no longer think the Netherlands is in contention to win. While heavy on vibes, I thought Joost’s performance was honestly quite sloppy. The same is true for Greece, which was carried by Marina Satti's charisma but was flawed in its execution. There are voices suggesting Ireland might be a shock winner, but for that to happen all other favourites would need to falter and I don’t see that happen. 

Top 10: All of the countries mentioned above (except maybe Greece if the performance is as messy as in the SF), expanded with Portugal, Sweden and Serbia. Most other entries I could see breaking into the 9th or 10th place if they have a good showing. It’s an unpredictable year!

Bottom 5: I’m afraid Germany and Spain will once again be relegated to the bottom of the pack, though for opposite reasons, and I don’t think either will go home with the dreaded nil points. Germany’s song is just too bland and its staging is a very weird fit while Spain’s package is very in-crowd and too low-energy. They will be kept company here by Slovenia, whose entry is fantastic but the staging is terribly blank. If Olly or Kaleen fudge their vocal again, the UK and Austria may end up here as well. 

Eurovision Song Contest 2024: Predictions before the show

So, we're in the final stretch now. The pre-parties and rehearsals have happened so it's time to take a critical look at my predictions for both Semis and see if anything's changed.

Semi-Final 1

Prediction from April 5 (in no particular order):

Azerbaijan

Croatia

Cyprus

Finland

Ireland

Lithuania

Portugal

Serbia

Slovenia

Ukraine

Has anything changed my opinions?

I think Croatia, Finland, Ireland, Lithuania and Ukraine are still surely qualifying and I also think we are still getting both Portugal and Serbia, despite the similarity in their offering (moody ballads). I don't want my make-believe to cloud predictions to much and Slovenia is now considered a borderline non-qualifier, but I'm keeping the faith in that one, too. 

The only change I would make is Cyprus not to qualify and Luxembourg to go through, though not on big margins. Its spot could be taken by Poland, too, but their song isn't inherently as exciting as the other two and its goofy staging is a risk. Plus, Luna's vocals have at times sounded brittle.

I also have concerns about Azerbaijan. There is something not quite gelling between the song, presentation and performance for their entry (even though I love their entry and want it to qualify) but I don't really see what could take its spot. I simply can't imagine all of the female solo artists will make it through.

Verdict: swapping Cyprus for Luxembourg.

Final Semi-Final 1 prediction (in order):

1. Croatia
2. Ukraine
3. Ireland
4. Finland
5. Portugal
6. Lithuania
7. Luxembourg
8. Serbia*
9. Slovenia*
10. Azerbaijan*

* Spots 8-10 could still be taken by Cyprus or Poland

Semi-Final 2

Prediction from April 6 (in no particular order):

Armenia

Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Estonia

Georgia

The Netherlands

Norway

San Marino

Switzerland

Has anything changed my opinions?

Armenia, the Netherlands, Norway and Switzerland are still making it without many problems. I made a mistake in not including Greece on the list last time. Austria and Denmark have offerings similar to one another, so I think if Kaleen's vocal is going to be too weak, she'll be dropping out. Many analysts have Denmark as a borderline qualifier but I'm keeping it in - sure, it's a Loreen Lite, but I think Saba's vocal is more reliable and the staging I've seen will help her otherwise static performance.

Malta has also entered the conversation again, whereas Belgium and Estonia have come under scrutiny. It pains me a bit to see Mustii appears to be doing a reverse Gustaph: he came into the Contest riding sky-high, but his unreliable pre-show performances and odd staging choices have seen him dropping in the odds pretty dramatically. I think he is still qualifying but I would not be surprised if he didn't make the cut. I feel even less certain about Estonia. Voters who want to go for the "it's crazy, it's party" vibe already have the Netherlands, and Estonia seems to just be copying its national finals performance, which was criticised for at times looking too chaotic. If Malta makes it, I think we will lose Georgia.

Lastly, Czechia's staging is an absolutely massive upgrade from both the studio cut and the underwhelming national finals performance. It could split the rock vote between itself and San Marino, but Megara has also upgraded its staging and I think it is still the more attractive and memorable package.

Verdict: I'll unfortunately admit Israel will be making it (look at my SF2 post to see why I refuse to discuss their entry) and I hadn't factored in Greece, so Austria unfortunately gets the axe here, as does Estonia.

Final Semi-Final 2 prediction (in order):

1. The Netherlands
2. Switzerland
3. Greece
4. Armenia
5. Israel
6. Georgia*
7. Norway
8. Denmark
9. Belgium
10. San Marino**

*Georgia's 5th-7th spot could be taken by Malta

**10th place could be taken by Czechia instead 

Eurovision Song Contest 2024: Previews, reviews and predictions (part II)

Semi-Final 2

I'll run down the countries in order of appearance. This year, the automatic finalists (the Big Five + last year's winner) also perform in the Semis to acquaint the public with their song and increase their chances of doing well. I find that argument a bit crummy because they already have a leg up by virtue of not having to qualify, but I doubt it will eventually move the needle much.

With each country, I'll also compare with my predictions of last year. Should be fun.

Final note: these previews and reviews come before the pre-parties and rehearsals. A lot can change between those.

Is this the Semi of Death?

Yes, I think it is. It's also the Semi where we leave one more country behind due to the uneven number of participants.

01. Malta

Entry: Sarah Bonnici - Loop

Language: English

Quick description: Girlybop

What came before? Malta's recent record is quite spotty. They have a faint echo of the United Kingdom and Ireland's latter-day troubles in often trying to engineer a winning entry but then falling quite short, though their results are not as abysmal as those of the British and the Irish. Around the early aughts there was buzz Malta was overdue for a win, but that noise has faded, even with a brief blip for Destiny's 2021 entry, that failed to produce an expected good result.

Best Maltese result so far: Came 2nd twice (2002, 2005), and 3rd twice (1992, 1998) as well. 

Qualification streak: -2

Opinion: It's alright. It's a radio-friendly bop that doesn't wear out its welcome, and indications are Malta will try to go for a memorable dance break to spice it all up, but that hasn't saved them in the past, and given how stacked the competition is, it will have to do exceedingly well (or hope similar entries will flame out). I'm afraid that Malta is once again trying to engineer its way to success instead of sending an entry they genuinely believe in.

Snarky opinion: Run-of-the-mill semi-camp affair

Prediction: Not qualifying

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I predicted The Busker to barely qualify but they came dead last in their semi. They probably weren't helped by getting put into the infamous 'death slot' (position 2 in the running order).

02. Albania

Entry: Besa - Titan

Language: English

Quick description: Dramatic Balkan pop

What came before? While Eurovision's enfranchised audience has embraced Albania as one of those countries that offer entries truer to their native culture, this has never translated into good results, with a pretty spotty qualification record. Albania tends to be along for the ride, do the minimum to qualify and that's it.

Best Albanian result so far: 5th in 2012.

Qualification streak: +1

Opinion: With Turkey, Montenegro and North Macedonia gone from the ESC, Albania comfortably nestled itself into that "Balkan pop" space years ago, and this offering is no different. At this point it's become a stereotype of its own: a voluptuous Albanian lady belting out dramatic lyrics to a vaguely ethnic pop beat. I'm not saying this track is bad, but it's quite uninspired, and the decision to overhaul it to English instead of keeping the original Albanian makes it worse. In a standout year like this one, 'Titan' is a serious contender for not qualifying at all.

Snarky opnion: An AI-generated Albanian entry composed of what an ESC hivemind thinks Albanian music is.

Prediction: Not or barely qualifying. Being in the dreaded 'death slot' doesn't help either.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I predicted Albania to qualify and it did. I did give them a glimmer of a chance to end up right at the top, but even that was too much.

03. Greece

Entry: Marina Satti - Zari

Language: Greek

Quick description: Hybrid and very eclectic post-pop.

What came before? Greece's latter-day performances have been pretty inconsistent. The wave they rode on from 2001 to 2013 (barring some darker spots) seems to have abated, with the country relegated to middling status. 

Best Greek result so far: Won in 2005. Came third 3 times (2001, 2004 and 2008).

Qualification streak: -1

Opinion: The fandom loves the unhinged music video to 'Zari', which injects an already pretty insane and uncompromising affair with a sense of Internet brutalism while exuding Greekness from all its pores. Even after more than a month, I'm still not sure whether I actually like this song, but it's a brave choice with a definite artistic vision behind it. The million euro question is how Marina Satti and her team are going to translate this to the stage. But I give an experienced peformer like Satti the benefit of doubt.

Snarky opinion: The soundtrack to hangover diarrhoea in a shoddy hotel in Olympia.

Prediction: Qualifying. Many people will not like this, but those who will, will love it. The staging needs to nail it though, and Greece's track record in this is all over the place.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I was completely wrong. I maintain 'What they say' was still a well-crafted entry with heart, but it was completely let down by its non-existent, cheap-looking staging, poor Victor's terrible boy scout outfit and his at times half-frightened stage presence. That's no dig on Victor: he was very young. This one is totally on the Greek delegation. Still - I was dead wrong.

04. Switzerland

Entry: Nemo - The Code

Language: English

Quick description: Opera, rap, musical theatre and drum 'n bass hodgepodge

What came before? Switzerland's recent entries have had mixed results to say the least, in part because of the engineering problem I pointed out earlier for other countries. However, their qualification record is starting to look quite good, so maybe they are on to something.

Best Swiss result so far: Won twice (1956, 1988), came 2nd three times (1958, 1963, 1968) and came 3rd 4 times (1961, 1982, 1993 and 2021). Switzerland also came last 5 times and was the first country to score 'nul points' in a Semi-Final with the now infamous Piero & The Music Stars' awful vocals, the lead vocalist slapping himself in the face with his microphone and his screechy, sinister laugh near the end.

Qualification streak: +4

Opinion: If you look at 'Quick description', you know this shouldn't work, but it does. Immaculately produced and vocally a very challenging track that is bound to hoover up jury points like it's no one's business. Its three-minute run time feels like it lasts much longer, and in a good way. Staging is usually not a problem for the Swiss, so the only thing to look for is the quality of the live vocal. If this comes together, this entry could really go places.

Snarky opinion: Let's try everything in just one track.

Prediction: Qualifying.

Shot at winning: 20%

How bad was my prediction last year: I was completely on the money (qualifying, then ending up bottom tier).

05. Czechia

Entry: Aiko - Pedestal

Language: English

Quick description: Feminist rock anthem

What came before? Czechia has yet to make any real impact on Eurovision, having only participated since 2007. Some of its entries have received modest hype, and the trendline in the past 8 years looks mostly positive.

Best Czech result so far: 6th place in 2018.

Qualification streak: +2

Opinion: A decent rock banger that has taken some flak because of its messy, shouty national finals performance (but honestly the Czech national finals are just as bad as the Irish ones, it's not the performers' fault). I also wonder if a song about self-love might really connect to the audience at large. Czechia did a feminism last year as well, but that message I felt resonated more because of its appeal to togetherness. 'Pedestal' also isn't helped by the presence of Megara in this semi, whose offering looks more fun.

Snarky opinion: pink.cz

Prediction: Not qualifying

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: Spot on. I said they'd qualify and then come top 10. They ended up 10th.

--. France

Entry: Slimane - Mon amour

Language: French

Quick description: Ballad

What came before? While results have largely been underwhelming for France in the past 20 years, the country still holds a lot of distinction because of its apparent refusal to bend to trends (even if this isn't really true). Like Spain, the United Kingdom and Germany, France has mostly been in a big funk, barring 2021's second place.

Best French result so far: Won 5 times (1958, 1960, 1962, 1969, 1977), came 2nd 5 times (1957, 1976, 1990, 1991 and 2021) and came 3rd 7 times (1959, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1978, 1980 and 1981).

Opinion: How history repeats. I can almost-copy what I said last year: "While the enfranchised audience seems to enjoy France's entries a lot, barring 2022, none of them performed well in the Grand Final. Perhaps France is one of those countries trapped in the unenviable position of having to perform what the public at large expects of them, while that same public generally doesn't really like their performances, excepting Barbara Pravi's 2021 entry, which lost out only because Italy was even better at this." The guys at Overthinking Eurovision suggest that 'Mon amour' is not France's attempt at winning, but its attempt to get more people in France to watch the ESC. At any rate, I think it's a lovely ballad with a really good performer and I think it'll do better than last year. Actual dark horse? Maaaybe.

Snarky opinion: Cliché ballad in a cliché mirror vest

Prediction: Top 15

Shot at winning: 1%

How bad was my prediction last year: Some had France down as a dark horse, but I never believed the hype and I was correct.

06. Austria

Entry: Kaleen - We will rave

Language: English

Quick description: 90s eurodance homage

What came before? Austria has historically always been a bit of a jobber, with a small glory period between 2014 and 2018.

Best Austrian result so far: Won twice (1966 and 2014), came 3rd once (2018). Also came last 7 times, but the last time that happened was in 1991.

Qualification streak: +1

Opinion: Out-and-out dance tracks have historically suffered from spotty vocal performances at the Contest, and while this track isn't vocally very challenging, it remains a question what it will be like live. Having said that, this is a nice love letter to 90s eurodance, with hints of Milk Inc. and even the Prodigy. As Kaleen is a dancer by profession, at least the choreo should be impressive. Judged on its own merits, I feel it does exceed its runtime a little, so that choreo better be good.

Snarky opinion: Nostalgia bait for Gen X'ers and elder Millennials.

Prediction: Could qualify, but people are going to compare Austria and Denmark since they sit so close together in the running order and operate in the same territory. I feel Saba has the advantage here, no matter what the fandom thinks.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I predicted Teya & Salena not to qualify, but they did. Their end result was much less than the fandom had hoped for, though. I'll concede that I was wrong in gauging the appeal of the track because I personally didn't like it much (I thought it wasn't as clever or witty as they thought it was) and that it's their staging plus opening the Grand Final that killed it.

07. Denmark

Entry: Saba - Sand

Language: English

Quick description: Scandi mid-tempo house

What came before? Denmark has generally been on a downward trend since winning the ESC for the last time in 2013.

Best Danish result so far: Won twice (2000, 2013), came 2nd once (2001) and came 3rd two times (1988, 1989).

Qualification streak: -3

Opinion: Yes, the lyrics are kind of trite, but I like the overall composition of this song, the vocal sounds strong and the performer has some live stage presence. 'Sand' is an offering that would have shot to the top of the odds 10 years ago, but in a packed Contest like 2024, it may not stand out, and there are worries about potentially static staging. That the track liberally borrows from Loreen's signature style and sound is secondary.

Snarky opinion: How to rip-off Loreen while totally not ripping off Loreen.

Prediction: Barely qualifying

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I was right to predict Denmark's unfortunate third non-qualification in a row, though admittedly their performance was even worse than I had expected.

08. Armenia

Entry: Ladaniva - Jako

Language: Armenian

Quick description: Armenian folk party

What came before? With three exceptions, ever since Armenia's first participation in 2006, they've qualified for every Grand Final. While Rosa Linn only came 20th in 2022's Grand Final, her song exploded all over the world through TikTok later.

Best Armenian result so far: 4th in 2008 and 2014.

Qualification streak: +2

Opinion: Limiting itself to under 2'30", this jaunty tune is shamelessly courting response from the live audience, and I think it will work. The French-Armenian duo's singer oozes a guileless charisma that can't be faked, and the joyfulness of it all is incredibly infectious. Its also an indelible earwurm of a tune.

Snarky opinion: -

Prediction: Qualifying, the ending up top 15.

Shot at winning: 1%, if only because there's nothing like it at ESC24.

How bad was my prediction last year: I correctly predicted qualification, though I overestimated Armenia's end result by a little.

09. Latvia

Entry: Dons - Hollow

Language: English

Quick description: Blues rock

What came before? Latvia failed to qualify for the final for the 6 preceding years, and discounting 2015-2016, for another 5. Despite winning the Contest back in 2002, they now share the space with a couple of other countries with the label "unpredictable and possibly weird", often enjoyed by the in-crowd but less favoured by the general public. 

Best Latvian result so far: Won once (2002), came 3rd on their first participation in 2000 (which may have set the tone for "lovably quirky").

Qualification streak: -6

Opinion: I think this is a strong song - moody, textured and with content that feels alt-rocky. In any season of the past 15 years, it would've been a shoe-in for qualifications, especially with juries still voting in the Semis, but this one will have a tough time of it.

Snarky opinion: Generic sad boy ballad

Prediction: I'd love for it to qualify, but I'm afraid it will, but if the entries around it feel weak, Dons definitely has a chance.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: Pretty bad. I thought they had a "solid chance" at qualifying and even gave them a 2% at winning. It was all wishful thinking.

--. Spain

Entry: Nebulossa - Zorra

Language: Spanish

Quick description: 1970s feminist disco

What came before? After almost 20 years of languishing in the desert of near-bottom and bottom-tier entries, Spain surprisingly reinvented itself in 2022.

Best Spanish result so far: Won twice (1968, 1969), came 2nd 4 times (1971, 1973, 1979, 1995) and came 3rd twice (1984, 2022).

Opinion: This one isn't for me. I know the sound design and production is deliberately dated and I appreciate the message about how women can be considered "bitches" no matter what they do, but to me this feels like an entry for the in-crowd, not something the public at large will turn out for.

Snarky opinion: Real Housewives of Madrid

Prediction: Bottom 10

Shot at winning: 0%

How wrong was I last year? Dead wrong. I thought Blanca Paloma even had a shot at winning on account of her artistry, but in the end neither the juries nor the public seemed to enjoy it much, perhaps on account of it being really intense. It was still so nice to see Spain continue the new trend of not sending some sappy, dull ballad, though.

10. San Marino

Entry: Megara - 11:11

Language: Spanish

Quick description: Vengeful butt rock

What came before? I'm convinced San Marino's participations are a ploy by the microstate's Office of Tourism. With only 3 qualifications out of 13 performances, things don't look very encouraging, unfortunately. 2023 was a new low with getting 0 points out of the Semi together with another country.

Best Sammarinese result so far: 19th in 2019. Yeah.

Qualification streak: -2

Opinion: It's a bit messy but it works as a very colourful track that commands attention. Czechia's entry (which operates in similar territory) fumbling the bag is not unlikely, but it's also not enough for '11:11' to push through. San Marino has to lend their entry artistry and strength to stand out and make it memorable.

Snarky opinion: -

Prediction: Qualifying, but barely. 

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I correctly predicted they would not qualify. Ought to have picked (or Piqued) lyrics that sounded less rapey and also a staging where the front man at one point did not sound like he was getting vivisected.

11. Georgia

Entry: Nutsa Buzaladze - Firefrighter

Language: English

Quick description: R&B-inspired girly bop 

What came before? If anything, Georgia tends to swing for the fences uncompromisingly (avant-garde house, angsty art rock, angry warrior songs, political disco, circus cabaret - basically Georgia has served up the entire traditional back catalogue of ESC in one speed run!). That deserves accolades, but the general audience hasn't been buying it. 

Best Georgian result so far: 9th twice (2010, 2011).

Opinion: Like Germany and Slovenia, I feel that Georgia's terrible reputation has become its own millstone. However undeserved that reputation I feel is and I think history will be far kinder to Georgia. 'Firefighter' is widely predicted to qualify but I honestly think it's a very generic pop song that will need Nutsa to pull out all the stops to enhance on stage. In most other years, I agree this would have been an easy qualifier, but not this year.

Snarky opinion: After everything else failed, it's back to generic pop. 

Prediction: Qualifying

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year? I was wrong to think Iru would qualify. Though I agree they got unlucky, it has to be said that Georgia remained very stubborn not to change anything about its entry after some legitimate criticism (e.g. on the nonsensical lyrics) and their staging was an enormous downgrade from the original video clip. Let's hope they don't make the same mistake again.

12. Belgium

Entry: Mustii - Before the Party's Over

Language: English

Quick description: Mature artsy pop

What came before? Disclaimer - I am Belgian. Anyway, Belgium's recent ESC history has been spotty, which isn't helped by the annual switch between Flemish and Walloon broadcasters selecting an entry. Still, there is a kooky legacy image with Telex, Pas de Deux and Urban Trad, who proudly continued Belgium's tradition of surrealism writ large.

Best Belgian result so far: Won in 1986, came 2nd in 2003, but also came last 8 times.

Qualification streak: +3

Opinion: I think this is a finely-crafted track with a performer unlikely to falter on the big stage. It helps that there isn't much like it in this Semi (except Switzerland, who has the arguably better entry of the two), and it Mustii can keep this oozing both quality and raw emotion, there is a path for this track.

Snarky opinion: -

Prediction: Qualifying

Shot at winning: 2% - some betting sites have this one as high as 7% but I think that's undeserved.

How bad was my prediction last year? I did think Gustaph was going to qualify, but I had never in my wildest dreams expected top 10. The man gave a master class in how to do everything he could to elevate what was a pretty basic house track.

13. Estonia

Entry: 5miinust & Puuluup - (Nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi

Language: Estonian

Quick description: Folk buttrock

What came before? Barring a dry spell between 2004 and 2008, Estonia has been a pretty reliable performer at Eurovision, often breaking into the top 10 but just as often floundering in the Grand Finals.

Best Estonian result so far: Won in 2002, 3rd in 2003.

Qualification streak: +2

Opinion: It's easy to see why the fandom has mostly embraced this track - it's wild, it's completely in Estonian and carries an interesting topic (i.e. drugs are only truly a crime if you're poor). Both 5miinust and Puuluup are big in Estonia, and their infectious energy is palpable. They will try to bring the party, but will likely need to be backed by smart staging and camera work to not make it look too chaotic.

Snarky opinion: What if the Blues Brothers also did drugs?

Prediction: Qualifying

Shot at winning: 1%, which is much more than the bookies think, but there's a universe I could see it happen.

How bad was my prediction last year: Not too bad, I predicted qualification but underestimated Alika's Grand Final performance.

--. Italy

Entry: Angelina Mango - La noia

Language: Italian

Quick description: Fusion bop

What came before? After re-entering Eurovision in 2011, Italy definitively buried the notion the Big Four (henceforth Five) don't perform well because people don't like them. They were just bad, and Italy called them out on it. With 11 out of 13 entries reaching the top 10 since their re-entry, Italy stand as one of the current-day Eurovision superpowers.

Best Italian result so far: Won 3 times (1964, 1990 and 2021), 2nd place 3 times (1974, 2011, 2019) and 3rd place 5 times (1958, 1963, 1975, 1987, 2015). 1958's third-placed 'Nel blu, dipinto di blu' is apparently also the world's most-covered song.

Opinion: Italy have been suffering from the 'Sweden Disease', in that their image as a Eurovision great will pull up even weaker entries, but that isn't the case here. Angelina Mango offers something fresh anyone would be unlikely to hear outside of their usual radio stations and curated playlists, and brings a vibrant charisma that keeps the attention (unlike some of Italy's snoozy ballads that - I'm sorry if I'm offending Italy fans - looked so boring even the performers looked like they didn't want to be there). I commend Italy for sending something different for a change, since the whole "conventionally attractive solo dude" has been working out absolutely fine for them. 'La noia''s only downside to me is that it lasts just a tad too long.

Snarky opinion: -

Prediction: Top 5.

Shot at winning: 10%. I think the odds right now overestimate it, but then I've been known to underestimate Italy's odds.

How bad was my prediction last year? Bad. Italy came 4th and I thought they might well end up bottom 5. Apparently there is a sizable contingent among both juries and public that would get misty eyed even if a trashcan sang in Italian.

14. Israel

Why are you ignoring Israel's entry? Shouldn't you judge it on its own merits, disregarding politics? Eden Golan has chosen to go, she wasn't forced. Even in unfree countries like Türkiye, Russia, Belarus or Azerbaijan, most performers can still choose not to participate in ESC without dire consequences.

About that, why aren't you coming down on those countries? Most of them no longer participate. The only real sore point here is Azerbaijan, but there are two major differences that are both geopolitical and human: Artsakh was never recognised by any government and it itself was mostly the result of Armenia waging war on Azerbaijan. And second, no one died. Not to say that it wasn't ethnic cleansing (it was!), but I can't see how this stacks up to over 30,000 Gazan civilians killed in half a year, many among them children.

But Israel can just send a song, right? Without any politics attached? Their entry was rejected  by the EBU twice on account of being too political and too directly referencing Hamas's October 7 attack on Israeli towns and kibbutzes. Imagine a hypothetical United States doing the same after the 9/11 attacks in 2001 and you'll understand at least how tacky that would have been.

How about Ukraine's entries in 2007, 2016, 2022 and 2023? Russia has directly interfered in Ukraine's politics for decades and has destroyed 10,000s of lives in its unprovoked attacks and occupations on Ukraine in 2014 as well as 2022-24. You can think what you will about Hamas, but at its core Israel is a colonialist settler state that uprooted end ended the lives of 100,000s of people since 1947. Ukraine never did anything to Russia. Even if you believe Israel has a right to exist (which isn't unreasonable if you think of what happened in World War II), the fact that Israel blithely ignores its UN-imposed 1947 borders, kills journalists, blocks and bombs humanitarian aid convoys as well as wantonly kills children should tell you we're dealing with a bad actor here.

Sure, but Israel's neighbours would like to basically do a Holocaust 2.0. They do. Does that justify murdering children and bombing humanitarian aid convoys, though? You could say bad dudes like the ayatollahs, Bashar Al-Assad or even Mohammad bin-Salman would happily do the same, but they're dictators. If we're going to compare like for like, Israel's government at least has some degree of popular legitimacy. That is why war crimes committed by ostensibly democratic governments are so much worse - their populations could choose not to vote these thugs into office, but they do.

Prediction: I think Eden Golan will be booed throughout her entire performance. I'm not sure she will not qualify though, perhaps I'm putting to much faith in the ESC televote audience to do the right thing.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year? I was wrong. I thought Noa Kirel was a borderline qualifier, but not only did she qualify, she managed top 10.

15. Norway

Entry: Gåte - Ulveham

Language: Norwegian

Quick description: Bombastic folk metal

What came before? They may not like to hear it, but Norway is kind of Sweden's eccentric little brother. Barring 2016, they've made ever final since 2013, but before that lies a record littered with very, very mixed results. Still, they are known as a competent and quirky country. Their current +6 qualification record is one of the strongest in the Contest.

Best Norwegian result so far: Won 3 times (1985, 1995, 2009). They also came dead last a staggering 11 times, which is still the ESC record.

Qualification streak: +6

Opinion: This is going to be a divisive entry, but remember that you cannot vote against a song, and those who love it will really love it. I'm more optimistic for this one's chances than last year's Lord of the Lost because audiences will more easily recognise Gåte's vocal abilities, and the folksy elements also give a broader audience something to latch onto. I personally like this entry by the way, even if it took some adjusting to understand its somewhat strange structure.

Snarky opinion: -

Prediction: Qualifying, then ending up halfway

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: Not too shabby, I predicted qualification (though it was an easy pick) and saw Norway end up just outside the top 10 - in reality, they came 5th.

16. The Netherlands

Entry: Joost Klein - Europapa

Language: Dutch (mostly)

Quick description: Happy hardcore banger about European unity

What came before? The Netherlands have comfortably nested themselves into the top and sub-top spaces in the past 10 years, and are now experiencing a second ESC Golden Age after the 1970s, often with country and singer-songwriter-like compositions that would likely score in the American Billboard charts. It's an old Belgian joke, but the Netherlands truly are Europe's America.

Best Dutch result so far: Won 5 times (1957, 1959, 1969, 1975 and 2019) and came 2nd once (2014) as well as 3rd once (1974). Duncan Lawrence is the only ESC winner to have held the title for two consecutive years, even on a technicality, but it would be unfair to say that's the only reason he's ascended to the Eurovision pantheon.

Qualification streak: -1

Opinion: A change of tack after last year's drama, and welcome one. This is a friendly, high-energy offering that feels distinctly Dutch and connects with Joost's personal story as well, so it isn't all fluff. The public will flock to this too, I think.

Snarky opinion: A good offering from a genre that's 95% shit is still a bit shitty.

Prediction: Qualifying, then top 10.

Shot at winning: 1%, not counting it out if its momentum keeps rising and others fail.

How bad was my prediction last year: Built on the back of Dutch competence, I thought they would salvage their entry, which had been surrounded by warning signs all the way up to Eurovision. I was wrong. It was hard not to feel a sting of pity for Mia Nicolai and Don Cooper and the palpable relief they seemed to feel after their pretty dreadful performance was over.

My qualification prediction for semi-final 2 (before rehearsals):

In no particular order:

• Armenia
• Austria
• Belgium
• Denmark
• Estonia
• Georgia
• The Netherlands
• Norway
• San Marino
• Switzerland

What was my success rate last year? 8/10:

• Australia
• Austria
• Armenia
• Belgium
• Cyprus
• Estonia
• Georgia
• Iceland
• Lithuania
• Slovenia

Eurovision Song Contest 2024: Previews, reviews and predictions (part I)

Those who'd like to go straight to the previews and predictions can skip the preamble below (or preramble, if you will) and begin reading at 'ESC 2023's state of play'.

Hi, hello

It's been a while. In fact, since last year's Eurovision season. In that post I explained why I no longer update this blog (except for this topic, and even on that it could be my last one as I might well move to video next year).

For those just reading this blog for the first time: this is my English-language blog that I keep a bit separate from the rest (I'm a Dutch-language writer of fiction, non-fiction, poetry, opinion pieces and a bit of a general language creative, but I also hold an M.A. in English language and literature and started learning English when I was 8). I am from and still live in Belgium.

Eurovision, you and me [abridged]

As I was born in 1983, my Eurovision memories go back a pretty long time. The first Eurovision song I can remember hearing is Johnny Logan's 'Hold me now', which he won the contest with in 1987. Because the live-event took place quite late in the evening, the first Eurovision show I was allowed to (partially) watch was the 1992 edition. At the turn of Dana International's 'Diva' winning the ESC in 1998, I actively began enjoying the increasingly campy nature of it. I lost interest a little until Lordi's 'Hard rock hallelujah' firmly entrenched ESC's modern era as a spectacle full of outrageous performance, thickly-applied camp and diversity in 2006. I've never skipped an edition since.

I believe that the past decade has been a new Golden Age for ESC. After maybe overdosing a little too much on the irony and weirdness (I'm looking at the rogue gallery here of Jedward, Dustin the Turkey, a long list of utterly embarrassing British entries, gratuitous appeal to sleaze, and Zdob și Zdub's first entry), the Contest eventually self-corrected. This coincided with the poptimism movement and the advent of music streaming, which tore down the walls of genre pigeonholing, elitism and allowed genuine artistic intent to become part of the ESC mix once more.

ESC 2024's state of play

ESC 2024 has the lowest number of participating countries since 2014, a title it shares with... ESC 2023. We lost Romania but re-gained Luxembourg. 37 nations in the contest is nothing to sneeze at, but we've come from a participant list of 40+ countries. Most non-returnees cite financial reasons. Participating in ESC is not cheap. Those who have been absent for much longer are so also for political reasons, either by being forced out (Russia, Belarus) or eyeing the contest as some form of gay, leftist propaganda (Hungary, Türkiye).

Are the songs any good this year?

Yes. It's probably the strongest edition since 2021. But those notions could all be turned on their head once the actual Semis begin.

Isn't the Eurovision Song Contest 'the Gay Olympics'?

Not really. While the representation of the queer community in both the fandom as well as participating acts is probably outsized compared to the numbers among the general population, I don't think the numbers of queer people involved in the ESC are proportionally higher than any other performing art scene such as theatre, opera or even current-day pop music. What makes it different is probably that it is an outlet/inlet into camp and queer culture for many countries where this is very unusual to take centre stage or be a massive televised spectacle.

Why is Israel allowed to participate in the 2024 Contest? 

If the Contest and its parent organisation, the European Broadcasting Union, was as left-wing as some conservatives and reactionaries like to think, there is no way in hell Israel would be allowed to participate. So the EBU and the ESC are sort of milquetoast-y liberal in the loosest sense at best (as verylibitchy deftly analyses in their video I linked earlier). If you don't believe that Israel is currently committing genocide in Gaza, the UN High Court concluded on March 27 that Israel's actions in Gaza are not "inherently" genocidal. That's one of the most tepid forms of denial I've ever heard.

The reason Russia and Belarus were so quickly banned after the start of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine was because the broadcasters who comprise EBU demanded it. As those broadcasters are state-owned and almost no European political leadership outright condemns Israel's actions, neither do the broadcasters. Again, here's verylibitchy:

I'll discuss it some more when we reach Israel's entry.

Why is [COUNTRY] allowed to participate?

The two runners-up in this discussion are Azerbaijan and Australia. The latter is allowed to participate because it pays to do so and the country's been ESC-crazy since forever. The argument against the former goes that they did their own little ethnic cleansing in the Armenian enclave of Artsakh in 2024. While that is true and a plausible argument could be made for Azerbaijan's expulsion from the Contest, it blurs the lines and would create lines of argumentation to ban a whole lot more countries. That would ultimately divide us between ethically purist views and "¯\_(ツ)_/¯ who's to say really?" centrists that only serve to obfuscate Israel's extremely obvious and ongoing war crimes. But feel free to have your own point of view.

Now, on to...

Semi-Final 1

I'll run down the countries in order of appearance. This year, the automatic finalists (the Big Five + last year's winner) also perform in the Semis to acquaint the public with their song and increase their chances of doing well. I find that argument a bit crummy because they already have a leg up by virtue of not having to qualify, but I doubt it will eventually move the needle much.

With each country, I'll also compare with my predictions of last year. Should be fun.

Final note: these previews and reviews come before the pre-parties and rehearsals. A lot can change between those.

Is this the Semi of Death?

Before all the entries were out, it looked like it was going to be. But honestly I now think Semi 2 is the stronger of the two, though not by much.

01. Cyprus

Entry: Silia Kapsis - Liar

Language: English

Quick description: Girlybop, inspired by Britney Spears

What came before? Many people are aware Cyprus would really like to win the ESC one day. Since their 2nd place in 2018, they've mostly been churning out vaguely Mediterranean pop bops, but with somewhat diminishing returns.

Best Cypriot result so far: 2nd in 2018. Cyprus holds the record for most performances without a single win - standing at 40 years now.

Qualification streak: +1

Opinion: It's alright. After Chanel's 2nd place show and Noa Kirel's 3rd place show with big dance breaks, Cyprus looks likely to make their version of it. At least it doesn't look boring.

Snarky opinion: Overproduced, literal hand-me-down.

Prediction: Qualifying, though not by much.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year: I predicted qualification and I was right.

02. Serbia

Entry: Teya Dora - Ramonda

Language: Serbian

Quick description: Mournful ballad

What came before? Serbia won the Eurovision Song Contest on its first entry as an independent nation in 2007, with Marija Šerifović's 'Molitva'. Serbia tended to do pretty well after, usually qualifying for the final, with latter-day entries showing a really versatile and exciting side of Serbia's music scene. Serbia has one of the longest current qualification streaks.

Best Serbian result so far: Won once (2007), came 3rd once (2012).

Qualification streak: +5

Opinion: An understated but artsy ballad that (literally) blossoms at the end, with the guts to start really silently in a Contest known for its loudness. Also, I don't think any country has ever sent in a song about the aftermath of World War I. All in all, it's a mature, soulful performance. Could be undone by potentially tacky staging.

Snarky opinion: Sad girl version of 'Molitva'.

Prediction: Qualifying. Anyone's guess what it will do in the final. Some think Portugal's entry might weigh it down, but they might as well lift each other up. It doesn't help Teya Dora has been put into the dreaded 'death slot' as the night's second performer.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year: I did predict Luke Black would qualify, but hugely overestimated his chances of winning. In my defence: his sound mix at the live event was not great and his vocal sounded weak.

03. Lithuania

Entry: Silvester Belt - Luktelk

Language: Lithuanian

Quick description: Emo techno

What came before? Lithuania has alternated decent years with years of not qualifying. I would say they are mostly regarded a mid-tier nation with occasional cracks at the sub-top.

Best Lithuanian result so far: 6th in 2006

Qualifcation streak: +3

Opinion: Lithuania's become a mild fan favourite over the years. Not to be dismissive but I do think that they loom larger in the enfranchised audience's mind because they're the only Baltic country not to have won ESC yet. When we look at actual results they're certainly a reliable performer and this offering looks to continue down that path. There's a stylish blend of emotion and hard techno here that looks and sounds complete.

Snarky opinion: Steal a pre-chorus from Hooverphonic's 'Amalfi' and fill the rest with style over substance, and you've got 'Luktelk'!

Prediction: Qualifying, then ending halfway the table.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year: I correctly predicted Monika Linkytė would qualify but I hadn't thought she'd come in the upper half of the Grand Final table.

04. Ireland

Entry: Bambie Thug - Doomsday Blue

Language: English

Quick description: Gothic musical theatre meets hardcore metal

What came before? The days of Ireland being a Eurovision juggernaut are long past us. Barring a few bright spots in 2000, 2006 and 2011, Ireland has consistently performed poorly. Even when it did make it into the finals, it got destroyed there, becoming last in 2007 and 2013, and also becoming last in the Semis in 2019, 2021 and 2023. Apparently the Irish public at large thinks "it's all political" but as ESC Tom (who himself is Irish) pointed out, the fact that most Irish entries in the past decades haven't done well in Irish charts speaks volumes. Why would Europe like their songs if Ireland itself doesn't like them to begin with?

Best Irish result so far: Won 7 times (1970, 1980, 1987, 1992, 1993, 1994 and 1996), which is a record they now share with Sweden. In addition, singer Johnny Logan is known as Mr. Eurovision on account of winning the contest two times as a performer (1980 and 1987) and one time as a producer (1992). Lastly, Ireland came 2nd 4 times (1967, 1984, 1990 and 1997). I will never forgive Ireland for unleashing Riverdance on the global public, though.

Qualification streak: -4

Opinion: After a series of mostly forgettable entries, Ireland has finally decided to shake things up and send a risky entry that's not meant as a derisive joke (looking at you, Jedward and Dustin). The utter weirdness and uncompromising nature of this entry would normally fit more out-of-the-box contestants like Georgia, but I'm personally all here for it. Its abrasiveness and artistry is amazing, and while I know many people will absolutely not like this, those who do will hopefully enthusiastically vote for it.

Snarky opinion: -

Prediction: Might qualify. If it does, its end result is very, very unpredictable.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I was right to predict Wild Youth wouldn't qualify. In fact, their Semi Final performance was even more cringey than I had expected. Sorry lads.

--. United Kingdom

Entry: Olly Alexander - Dizzy

Language: English

Quick description: Pop house

What came before? While the UK had been a Eurovision laughing stock, culminating in back-to-back last places in 2019 and 2021 (the last of which even received the very first 'double nul' score), Sam Ryder's 2nd place in 2022 revitalised the UK. Ryder's work is not to be underestimated, because at the time, British entries were suffering not just from bad quality, but also from simply being British.

Best British result so far: Won five times (1967, 1969, 1976, 1981, 1997), came 2nd 15(!) times (1959, 1960, 1961, 1964, 1965, 1968, 1970, 1975, 1977, 1988, 1989, 1992, 1993, 1998 and 2022) and 3rd 3 times (1973, 1980, 2002). The UK also came last 5 times (2003, 2008, 2010, 2019, 2021)..

Opinion: Initial reactions indicate the public expected more from an established name like Olly Alexander, but the song isn't bad. It's a well-produced slick pop affair that could do pretty well if staged and sung well (where last year's Mae Muller sunk). If either or both are bad though, the end result could be disappointing and might bring our short-lived Britainaissance in the ESC to a premature end.

Snarky opinion: This entry is miles above what the UK used to deliver in the aughts and tens, but still falls quite short of the high level the ESC has risen to.

Prediction: Middle of the pack.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: Pretty bad. I thought Mae Muller could reach top 10 but she ended up bottom 5. The studio version of her track was very nice (and in fact was a better track than this offering) but her live vocals fell apart completely.  

05. Ukraine

Entry: Jerry Heil & alyona alyona - Maria & Teresa

Language: Ukrainian

Quick description: Hallowed pop and rap

What came before? Ukraine is a Eurovision superpower on par with Sweden and Italy. Its image looms large with even the casual Eurovision viewer, discounting the terrible war the country finds itself in. Ukraine is a country that seems to understand the modern Festival at its core. Since entering the contest in 2003, they have never not qualified for the Grand Final.

Best Ukrainian result so far: Won 3 times (2004, 2016, 2022), came 2nd twice (2007, 2008) and 3rd once (2013).

Qualification streak: +13 (barring two wins)

Opinion: After years of outstanding quality, I fear this one is a lesser offering. The haunting, almost dirge-like pop production is very well done but I find the rap bit a bad fit and it goes on for way too long. Then again, I initially also found their 2022 winner 'Stefania' to cram too many things in at once, but once staged things came together surprisingly well, so it shows you what I know. Admittedly it also bothers me a little to uncritically sing the praise of Mother Theresa, who was unmasked after her death as being an absolutely garbage human being masquerading as a do-gooder. 

Snarky opinion: Ukraine can't let go of its parent complex.

Prediction: Qualifying, but not by the huge margins the fandom seems to expect.

Shot at winning: 2%. Might well become a shock bad performance though and flame out.

How bad was my prediction last year: Not bad. I gave Ukraine a 15% chance to end up winning and they ended up 6th.

06. Poland

Entry: Luna - The Tower

Language: English

Quick description: Faerie house

What came before? Poland has had a bit of a jobber image for the past 15 years at the contest, with entries all over the place, but rarely ending up in a good place.

Best Polish result so far: 2nd place in 1994, on their very first participation.

Qualification streak: +2

Opinion: Radio-friendly indie-sounding electronic track reminiscent of Grimes and CHVRCHES. The sounds's been around for over a decade and could be considered slightly out-of-date, but it's alright. Therein lies its greatest problem. As Alesia Michelle has said, "Poland has qualified with less", true, but it's hardly a ringing endorsement.

Snarky opinion: wish.com Grimes

Prediction: May or may not qualify.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year: Very bad. After the national final's disasterpiece for Blanka, I thought we might have even been heading for one of the worst ESC performances in years. But not only did she qualify on the back of an admittedly strong performance and did she embrace the cheesiness of it all (hello CapCut-effects), Blanka's final result was not even bottom 5.

07. Croatia

Entry: Baby Lasagna - Rim Tim Tagi Dim

Language: English

Quick description: Rammstein-light infused with a techno break

What came before? Croatia has had middling ESC results at best in the past 15 years.

Best Croatian result so far: 4th place twice (1996 and 1999).

Qualification streak: +1

Opinion: Bookmakers see this as the potential winner (though not by a huge margin) and I can see why. 'Rim Tim Dagi Dim' is impactful, rock-y and funny in so many ways and is also very immediate. It's almost unconceivable that Baby Lasagna was a a replacement for another artist that dropped out in the Croatian pre-selection. Some have made comparisons with Finland's entry from last year (which came 2nd), but that doesn't ring true. 'Rim Tim Dagi Dim' covers a completely different topic and reaches more into folk/rock territory.

Snarky opinion: wish.com Rammstein

Shot at winning: 20%

How bad was my prediction last year: Totally off-base, I thought it wouldn't even qualify. I'll admit Let 3's entry didn't click for me until the Grand Final.

08. Iceland

Entry: Hera Björk - Scared of Heights

Language: English

Quick description: Club pop from 2002

What came before? Iceland has been more willing to experiment than other Scandinavian countries, sometimes to their detriment. They have generally been re-cast into a favourable spotlight with the general audience after - believe it or not - 2019's divisive but uncompromising Hattari and the calculated hipster awkwardness of Daði Freyr. They've since switched back to safer entries though. Also to their detriment, I might add.

Best Icelandic result so far: Came 2nd in 1999 and 2009.

Qualification streak: -1

Opinion: This is not a bad song by any means and banks on early aughts nostalgia. It does really break the idea of Iceland as an experimental country, especially after their more mainstream entries in 2023 and 2022. Once seen as a country really wanting to win ESC, there now seems to be an almost deliberate strategy just to be there. I suppose it doesn't help that the Icelandic public at large is one of the most outspoken against Israel's participation. All in all, I enjoy 'Scared of Heights' but in a strong season as this one is, it flounders.

Snarky opinion: Engelbert Humperdinck's catastrophic entry v2

Prediction: DOA.

Shot at winning: 0%, likely to come bottom 5 in its Semi.

How bad was my prediction last year: Pretty bad. I thought if Diljà could fix her staging, it'd be a shoe-in for the Grand Final and even had a very small shot at winning. Unfortunately, her staging wasn't fixed and she didn't make it out of the Semis. 

--. Germany

Entry: Isaak - Always on the Run

Language: English

Quick description: Big pop Rag 'N Bone Man.

What came before? Germany's been on a long string of disappointing results with a kind of airy "throw things at the wall and see what sticks" vibe.

Best German result so far: Won twice (1982 and 2010), 2nd place 4 times (1980, 1981, 1985, 1987) and 3rd place 5 times (1970, 1971, 1972, 1994, 1999). They also came last 9 times. For a country with its pedigree of participations, results have been very underwhelming since the early 1980s.

Opinion: 'Always on the Run' is a perfectly solid soul-rock offering but also very middle-of-the-road. Germany's national final didn't do Isaak any wonders in terms of staging, so who knows it could be improved and attract the votes of an older and slightly more conservative audience. Isaak is a very competent singer, but the best I think Germany can hope for now is escaping the bottom 5. It's very sad that Germany wasn't rewarded for experimenting a little with Jendrik in 2021 or for Lord of the Lost in 2023, but unfortunately that's how the cookie crumbled. 

Snarky opinion: The 'Nice Guy' of the 2024 Contest

Prediction: Bottom 10.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: Very bad, I thought Lord of the Lost even had a small chance of winning, but a comparable offering from Australia hoovered up all of the 'metal' vote and juries paid it dust on account of their mostly pop-oriented compositions. Probably the biggest shame of ESC 2023. At least Lord of the Lost gained a bigger fan base.

09. Slovenia

Entry: Raiven - Veronica

Language: Slovenian

Quick description: Dark pop with a witchy edge

What came before? While not outright losing in the Grand Finals, Slovenia's record is a pretty bleak one. They don't carry the best image to ESC, and frankly never did. Last year's Joker Out was a fan favourite, but didn't perform super-well.

Best Slovenian result so far: 7th two times (1995, 2001).

Qualification streak: +1

Opinion: This is my pre-season favourite. To me, it has it all: artistry, an interesting song structure, drama, an unusual theme (a woman accused of witchcraft in the Middle Ages!) and bits and pieces (that "rrrr!") to keep me on the edge of my seat and lots of drama. I accept not everyone shares my opinion, though.

Snarky opinion: Consolation prize entry for Raiven after trying for years, lol

Prediction: Qualifying, then ending up somewhere between 15-20.

Shot at winning: 1% because I want to believe.

How bad was my prediction last year: I predicted non-qualification but I was wrong there. My belief that despite Joker Out's charm and praise from the fandom they were basically LPS v2 was vindicated with their bottom 5 result in the Grand Final though.

10. Finland

Entry: Windows95man - No rules!

Language: English

Quick description: 90s eurodance parody

What came before? Finland's recent ESC record has been spotty at best. While often qualifying for the Grand Final, they usually strand there unceremoniously. Finland has tried out all manner of genres, artists and vibes, but seems to score best with rock and metal, which is unsurprising, since the country has the highest density of metal bands per 1,000 inhabitants.  

Best Finnish result so far: Won once (2006) with fondly-remembered monster rockers Lordi, who arguably ushered in the prelude to ESC's current Golden Age. Came 2nd last year.

Qualification streak: +3

Opinion: While dedicated to the bit so it seems reductionist to say 'No rules!' is a "joke" entry - it really is. The biggest problem for me is that the fun of this entry has diminishing returns on subsequent viewings. Of course, most people will only see this once or twice so it still could have a big televote impact.

Snarky opinion: "We didn't win last year so now we're taking a big steaming dump on the Contest."

Prediction: Qualifying, but its Grand Final results are very hard to predict.

Shot at winning: 0%, especially because there are at least two other entries (Austria and the Netherlands) serving 90s nostalgia without the ridicule.

How bad was my prediction last year: I underestimated Käärijä a little but by saying he had a 2% chance at winning. Turns out his chances were a lot higher.

11. Moldova

Entry: Natalia Barbu - In the Middle

Language: English

Quick description: Orchestral bop

What came before? Moldova qualified for the Grand Final 12 out of 17 times since their first entry in 2005. The enfranchised ESC audience as well as the general public has come to recognise Moldova as a country with understated but clearly present ambitions to one day win the whole thing and sees e.g. Zdob și Zdub, Natalia Gordienko and SunStroke Project as Eurovision nobility. In addition, Moldova's staging tends to be free-spirited and infectious. The juries tend to be more cautious in their voting patterns, and outsiders still struggle with name-recognition, but Moldova is a consistent player in ESC's sub-top. I am quite confident that barring unforeseen events, one day Moldova will win ESC within the next 15 years.

Best Moldovan result so far: 3rd in 2017.

Qualification streak: +4

Opinion: Natalia Barbu already participated in 2007, continuing Moldova's strange tradition of sending artists multiple times (Natalia Gordienko, SunStroke Project and Pasha Parfeni also went twice, and Zdob și Zdub even three times). 'In the Middle' is languishing near the bottom of the odds, and while its lyrics are trite and the song's composition is a bit middle-of-the-road, there are interesting things to work with here - including the burst of operatic vocals at the end as well as the prominent violins.

Snarky opinion: Winning entry if it had entered in 1998.

Prediction: Might qualify, but it's on very thin ice.

Shot at winning: 0% and even its qualification chances look in danger, but never count out Moldova to MacGuyver something out of thin air and an equally thin budget.

How bad was my prediction last year: Not too bad. I did (hestitantly) predict them to qualify, and they did, then ending up in the right table of the results.

--. Sweden

Entry: Marcus & Martinus - Unforgettable

Language: English

Quick description: Bombastic, slick house-pop

What came before? Since 2011, Sweden has replaced Ireland as the country to beat. They now occupy a joint 1st place in the all-time rankings since their 7th win last year, and also equal Ireland for the record of the same artist winning the Contest twice.

Best Swedish result so far: Won 7 times (1974, 1984, 1991, 1999, 2012, 2015, 2023), came 2nd once (1966) and 3rd 6 times (1983, 1985, 1995, 1996, 2011 and 2014).

Qualification streak: +9 (barring three wins)

Opinion: You can't hate on this track - its production is flawless, gripping as well as radio-friendly. Perhaps some will find it too smooth and too produced, but as one of my favourite Eurovision analysists ESC Tom has said (go check him out, he makes amazing content), let's not hate on Sweden for being the diligent star student of the class - the others need to up their game. Now, 'Unforgettable' is not a winner, but I easily see it cruising to the right hand side of the Grand Final's result table.

Snarky opinion: A mature version of Jedward, but still not terribly exciting.

Prediction: Top 15.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year: I did give Loreen the biggest chance to win again, but then again a child could have predicted that.

12. Azerbaijan

Entry: Fahree featuring Ilkin Dovlatov - Özünlə Apar

Language: English, Azeri

Quick description: Oriental pop

What came before? Azerbaijan tends to send smart entries that are in tune with Eurovision's mood and temperature. Out of their 15 entries, only two missed finals qualification. 

Best Azeri result so far: Won once (2011), came 2nd once (2013) and came 3d once (2009).

Qualification streak: -1

Opinion: I have a feeling the fandom is sleeping on this entry. It's a very atmospheric, oriental sounding mid-tempo song infused with cultural tradition (whereas Azerbaijan used to shop around Europe for its productions). Also love Ilkin Dovlatov and his glorious moustache belting their heart out. 

Snarky opinion: This is sad, and you should feel sad (for ethnic cleansing).

Prediction: Qualifying, then ending up in the bottom 10.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I was too much influenced by Azerbaijan's track record and cautiously predicted TuralTuranX might qualify or even do a surprise sweep in the Grand Final, but yeah, I should have known their tepid (if nice) entry was a rare DOA in Azerbaijan's ESC history.

13. Australia

Entry: Electric Fields - One Milkali

Language: English

Quick description: Mellow electropop

What came before? Despite this only being Australia's 9th performance, their record so far is very impressive, with 7/8 qualifications. Apart from the most hardened skeptics or casuals who believe Australia doesn't 'belong' in ESC, our friends from down-under have more than earned their keep, and it feels like it's only a matter of time until they win ESC. 

Best Australian result so far: 2nd in 2016.

Qualification streak: +2

Opinion: Australia's offering this year is kind of a black box. The "music clip" if you can call it that, is obviously very low-effort and has dampened reception, but this could blossom out to become a solemn moment of togetherness and positivity live. It's also lovely how the track gets a light Aboriginal culture touch, but honestly I don't think that will matter much to the public at large.

Snarky opinion: The theme track to next year's new age quack cure.

Prediction: Qualifying, but barely. Then relegated to the bottom 10.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: I was on the money thinking Voyager would edge out Germany's Lord of the Lost in the same hard rock / metal playing field, though I did overestimate their chances at winning by a little.

14. Portugal

Entry: Iolanda - Grito

Language: Portuguese

Quick description: Modern fado

What came before? Portugul is still riding the ripples of their win in 2017 but later entries seem to have fallen back into the fold of middling results.

Best Portuguese result so far: Won once (2017). Portugal also came last 4 times, though (1964, 1974, 1997 and 2018).

Qualification record: +3

Opinion: 'Grito' continues Portugal's trend of "we do whatever we want, fuck you" and do so successfully, showcasing their unique musical culture. The song is also a very mature and serious offering, which I think will appeal to the more artsy viewer as well as people who watch ESC specifically to see countries bring their language(s) and traditions to the front. Iolanda's performance at the Festival da Canção looked stage-ready.

Snarky opinion: Struggle session that's a struggle to sit out.

Prediction: Qualifying, then it remains to be seen how it fares. Serbia occupies a similar space with their entry this year, but I see both qualifying. I think Teya Dora's song is a bit stronger, but Portugal is in a better running order slot.

Shot at winning: 0%.

How bad was my prediction last year: I said Mimicat wouldn't quality, but she did. She did end up bottom 5 though.

15. Luxembourg

Entry: Tali - Fighter

Language: English, French

Quick description: Eclectic girlbop

What came before? Luxembourg rejoins the ESC after a 31-year absence. The EBU rewarded them for this (and also the fat wads of cash they bring) by giving them one of the best slots to celebrate it. It's also a message to other countries who've been gone for some time: "Come back, and we'll support you". There is some grumbling in the fandom that Luxembourg is sending an artist who is not Luxembourgian and their pre-selection process was fully run by an Israeli company, with all but one finalist being foreigners, but on the other hand this is also deliciously Luxembourgian. All of their wins were achieved by French singers and they've sent participants to the Contest from Ireland, Germany and even the United States. So them doing this is in fact a continuation of their proud mercenary tradition.

Best Luxembourgian result so far: Won 5 times (1961, 1965, 1972, 1973, 1983), came 3rd twice (1962, 1986). They also came last 3 times (1958, 1960, 1970).

Qualification record: -

Opinion: This isn't a usual, radio-friendly girlbop and has some strange and abrasive moments, which might make it stand out. Depending on the live performance, it could melt down into a hot mess or come together as something clever and memorable.

Snarky opinion: Forgettable try-hard pop.

Prediction: I would not be surprised if this didn't qualify, despite its running order slot, if they just copy and paste the national finals performance, which honestly looked a bit disjointed and cheap. If it does qualify, I think it might sink to the bottom 5. It also doesn't help that Tali's brother (whom she dedicated this track to) is a soldier in the Israeli army.

Shot at winning: 0%

How bad was my prediction last year: -

My qualifying prediction for semi-final 1 (before rehearsals):

In no particular order:

• Azerbaijan
• Croatia
• Cyprus
• Finland
• Ireland
• Lithuania
• Portugal
• Serbia
• Slovenia
• Ukraine

What was my success rate last year? 7/10

• Azerbaijan
• Czechia
• Finland
• Malta
• Moldova
• Netherlands
• Norway
• Serbia
• Sweden
• Switzerland