So the semis have now come and gone. I correctly predicted 16/20 finalists. In a field with 31 competing entries, that’s slightly better than random and my score is mostly saved by SF1, which was the more predictable of the two semis.
General observations
The past decade has seen the quality of entries on a steady rise. The early naughts are starting to look like a foreign land and entries that could have comfortably qualified a decade ago are now fiercely competing against entries of a similar quality. I realise that part of this is caused by less committed and/or less well-financed countries leaving the Contest, but even countries backed by fewer resources like San Marino and Moldova bring at least respectable entries and shows.
- Among the Big Five, barring Germany, each of them has rediscovered or continued its drive to win rather than hang on in grim resignation.
- Unless an entry brings the party or does something novel, even a partially bad vocal is now a death knell.
- Running order still matters, but its importance is a little exaggerated.
- Obvious DOA entries are getting rarer - this year had just one and 2023 and 2022 each had three. Compare to 2019, that at least had five or six.
Other notes
Belgium
As most analysts had predicted, SF2 this year was very hard to predict. As a Belgian, I am obviously disappointed that our qualification streak was broken but it was not entirely unexpected. I hope both VRT and RTBF realise they need to amp up their efforts and not cling to copium as to why we didn’t make it. Possible excuses could be:
- “Mustii’s vocal wasn’t perfect, but the vocal performances from Austria, Greece and the Netherlands also weren't good and they still made it”: yes, but for party songs vocal performance doesn’t matter (that much).
- “The audience doesn’t understand sophisticated pop songs”: it does, if it’s staged correctly. Serbia made the cut in ’22 and ’23 and Ireland made it this year.
Belgium's three-year qualification streak was flimsy anyway, each time progressing by tight margins. Other countries that used to have similar streaks like Azerbaijan and Albania found out as well that this doesn’t keep working, the former last year and the latter also this year. I hope VRT treats our 2025 participation seriously and/or attracts talent that’s a cut above the crop we saw in 2023.
Three 6-NQ streaks ended, two 3-NQ streaks are continuing
I’m very happy for Ireland, Latvia and Georgia that their long NQ streaks have ended. In the case of Latvia, I’m actually quite sure that Dons’s rock-solid showing pushed out Belgium. Unfortunately, Denmark and San Marino’s NQ strings are continuing, with each at 4 consecutive NQs. I would like to believe neither scored rock bottom because they had solid packages.
Ukraine keeps its 100% qualification rate
If anyone ever says again Ukraine won in 2022 because Europe felt sympathetic to their plight, show them this. It is frankly insane how well Ukraine understands Eurovision. At this rate they’ll have their 5th win long before some other countries that have never won have nabbed their first. Also yes, Luxembourg now technically has a 100% qualification record as well, but come on.
Israel needs to be booted from the Contest
There was some booing during the Semi but it was drowned out by the cheers. We have to wait and see what the actual televote for Israel was, but I’m afraid it will strengthen the EBU in its belief that this genocidal Apartheid state belongs in the Contest. The EBU’s excuse that Israel has an independent broadcaster while Russia does not is laughable. The Caucasus countries have serious problems in that regard, and I’m sure the EBU would welcome back Türkiye and Hungary with open arms. Unfortunately, Israel now also shot up in the bookies’ odds. Their entry winning Eurovision 2024 would be nothing short of disgusting and pretending it’s anything else is hypocrisy.
Fake edit: I was drafting my post before a few more things came to light:
- The EBU switched off the audience mikes during Israel's performance and pasted a cheering tape on top because booing from the audience was too loud. There are several amateur recordings from within the audience that show this.
- At the time of posting, there is now also an ongoing controversy regarding continued Dutch participation in Eurovision 2024 but it looks like it was instigated by Israeli crybullying (to non-natives: "crybullying" is bullying others while pretending you're the real victim). The EBU pushing out the Netherlands would be a catastrophic mistake and might even cause me not to watch the Grand Final at all.
The Grand Final: state of play
With the running order now known and the bookmakers’ odds hardening like resin, let’s try and make some predictions.
Winners’ circle: Croatia and Switzerland are still the two most likely winners in my mind, followed by Italy, Ukraine and, distantly, France and - sigh - Israel, apparently. I no longer think the Netherlands is in contention to win. While heavy on vibes, I thought Joost’s performance was honestly quite sloppy. The same is true for Greece, which was carried by Marina Satti's charisma but was flawed in its execution. There are voices suggesting Ireland might be a shock winner, but for that to happen all other favourites would need to falter and I don’t see that happen.
Top 10: All of the countries mentioned above (except maybe Greece if the performance is as messy as in the SF), expanded with Portugal, Sweden and Serbia. Most other entries I could see breaking into the 9th or 10th place if they have a good showing. It’s an unpredictable year!
Bottom 5: I’m afraid Germany and Spain will once again be relegated to the bottom of the pack, though for opposite reasons, and I don’t think either will go home with the dreaded nil points. Germany’s song is just too bland and its staging is a very weird fit while Spain’s package is very in-crowd and too low-energy. They will be kept company here by Slovenia, whose entry is fantastic but the staging is terribly blank. If Olly or Kaleen fudge their vocal again, the UK and Austria may end up here as well.
