So, we're in the final stretch now. The pre-parties and rehearsals have happened so it's time to take a critical look at my predictions for both Semis and see if anything's changed.
Semi-Final 1
Prediction from April 5 (in no particular order):
Azerbaijan
Croatia
Cyprus
Finland
Ireland
Lithuania
Portugal
Serbia
Slovenia
Ukraine
Has anything changed my opinions?
I think Croatia, Finland, Ireland, Lithuania and Ukraine are still surely qualifying and I also think we are still getting both Portugal and Serbia, despite the similarity in their offering (moody ballads). I don't want my make-believe to cloud predictions to much and Slovenia is now considered a borderline non-qualifier, but I'm keeping the faith in that one, too.
The only change I would make is Cyprus not to qualify and Luxembourg to go through, though not on big margins. Its spot could be taken by Poland, too, but their song isn't inherently as exciting as the other two and its goofy staging is a risk. Plus, Luna's vocals have at times sounded brittle.
I also have concerns about Azerbaijan. There is something not quite gelling between the song, presentation and performance for their entry (even though I love their entry and want it to qualify) but I don't really see what could take its spot. I simply can't imagine all of the female solo artists will make it through.
Verdict: swapping Cyprus for Luxembourg.
Final Semi-Final 1 prediction (in order):
- Croatia
- Ukraine
- Ireland
- Finland
- Portugal
- Lithuania
- Luxembourg
- Serbia*
- Slovenia*
- Azerbaijan*
* Spots 8-10 could still be taken by Cyprus or Poland
Semi-Final 2
Prediction from April 6 (in no particular order):
Armenia
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Estonia
Georgia
The Netherlands
Norway
San Marino
Switzerland
Has anything changed my opinions?
Armenia, the Netherlands, Norway and Switzerland are still making it without many problems. I made a mistake in not including Greece on the list last time. Austria and Denmark have offerings similar to one another, so I think if Kaleen's vocal is going to be too weak, she'll be dropping out. Many analysts have Denmark as a borderline qualifier but I'm keeping it in - sure, it's a Loreen Lite, but I think Saba's vocal is more reliable and the staging I've seen will help her otherwise static performance.
Malta has also entered the conversation again, whereas Belgium and Estonia have come under scrutiny. It pains me a bit to see Mustii appears to be doing a reverse Gustaph: he came into the Contest riding sky-high, but his unreliable pre-show performances and odd staging choices have seen him dropping in the odds pretty dramatically. I think he is still qualifying but I would not be surprised if he didn't make the cut. I feel even less certain about Estonia. Voters who want to go for the "it's crazy, it's party" vibe already have the Netherlands, and Estonia seems to just be copying its national finals performance, which was criticised for at times looking too chaotic. If Malta makes it, I think we will lose Georgia.
Lastly, Czechia's staging is an absolutely massive upgrade from both the studio cut and the underwhelming national finals performance. It could split the rock vote between itself and San Marino, but Megara has also upgraded its staging and I think it is still the more attractive and memorable package.
Verdict: I'll unfortunately admit Israel will be making it (look at my SF2 post to see why I refuse to discuss their entry) and I hadn't factored in Greece, so Austria unfortunately gets the axe here, as does Estonia.
Final Semi-Final 2 prediction (in order):
- The Netherlands
- Switzerland
- Greece
- Armenia
- Israel
- Georgia*
- Norway
- Denmark
- Belgium
- San Marino**
*Georgia's 5th-7th spot could be taken by Malta
**10th place could be taken by Czechia instead
